Today on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to take advantage of the upcoming Four Nations Tournament break and talk a little about player splits. For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on first half/second half splits. Naturally we will be using past season data to do this with the idea of highlighting a few players who have had different levels of production in the past.

To gather data for the analysis today I pulled two different Big Board Reports. They cover the entirety of the 2023-24 season, but split in January so that each team has roughly 41 games played. I then pulled a couple of data points forward to compare, with the main focus on points per game. The table below then will contain basic player information (name, position, and team), then the point-per-game splits (second half and then first half), and then the difference between the two.

First up we are going to take a look at a few players who performed worse in the second half.

William Nylander got off to a very hot start in 2023-24. It's not like he was bad in the second half, just not quite as dramatic as the first. The biggest change between the first and the second half was in his shot rates. He was shooting well over four times per game in the first half of 2023-24 and that dropped to three and a half during the second half. Generally, his deployment and shooting percentage stayed fairly constant. Fast forward to 2024-25 and he has sustained his overall time on ice numbers from 2023-24 and the second half shot rates. He is receiving a bit of a shooting percentage bump this time around though, up at 18 percent. That accounts for about nine of his 33 goals. Without an uptick in shot rates for the second half, it is certainly possible that he again performs at a slower rate in the second half.

Jeff Skinner is a bit of a conundrum here. His second half success is going to be completely dependent on the deployment he gets. If he can line up on Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl's wing he has a chance, if not, he most definitely doesn't. It isn't like that even strength deployment is a guarantee though, as he has spent chunks of the first half in that top six deployment and is putting up a 32-point pace. Overall, I would not be excited about improved fortunes in the second half.

Filip Hronek makes the list on what we all thought was probably an unsustainable run to start the 2023-24 regular season. Given that, of course his second half was worse. He has managed a 40-point pace thus far, and is getting a lot of ice time, so those are feathers in his cap. Unfortunately, though he is shooting less, so again not expecting any positive change here.

Cole Perfetti's almost 60-point pace to start the 2023-24 season was supported by strong time on ice numbers, shot rates, and a high shooting percentage. All of that changed for the worse in the second half and surprise, surprise, his scoring dropped off. So far in 2024-25 he has averaged more time on ice overall than during either split for 2023-24, and his shot rates and shooting percentage sort of split the difference. He is on a 50-point pace to this point in 2024-25, but even though he has disappointed in the second half before I think he can keep this up.

A little like with Nylander, Jack Hughes' inclusion here is a bit like a distinction without a difference. It isn't like you are going to drop him if the data points to an unsustainable first half, and it isn't like you can go and add him. The irony here is that Hughes likely should have had a better second half than first half. His time on ice both overall and on the power play increased, his shot rates increased, and his shooting percentage increased. He basically just had a bad team shooting percentage at even strength. Hughes was doing his job, but the rest of the team wasn't doing theirs while he was on the ice. So far in 2024-25 he is shooting a little less, which kind of limits the top end number, but I don't see any reason why he can't keep up the 95-point pace in the second half, even with his recent history of dropping off.

On the flip side we have a few players who had much bigger second halves in 2023-24.

Kirill Kaprizov, like with Jack Hughes, is just good. He went on an absolute tear at the end of 2023-24 and then started the 2024-25 season on a similar tear. The only real question is going to be health. At least four weeks (from February 1) of recovery time makes his participation in your stretch run and early playoff matchups a little bit of a question mark.

Roman Josi makes the list on largely an inflated second half shooting percentage. Shooting almost 11.5 percent as a defenseman is pretty rare, even if your recent career average hovers around 6.7 to 7 percent. Fast forward to 2024-25 Josi's point pace is a bit disappointing. That is largely true for the entire Predators' roster though. There have been many more signs of life lately and that can only help, but they are not consistent and will need to be for Josi to rebound through the rest of the season. He seems to be doing mostly what he always does, but his and his teammate's numbers are just low across the board. When Nashville consistently scores (like they did in December and the beginning of January) things look just fine for Josi.

T.J. Oshie had a great run in January and February of 2024 and that was about it. He missed a lot of time to injury and he hasn't suited up for a game this season.

Juraj Slafkovsky's strong second half was directly correlated to when he was elevated to the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. The downside is that he has spent a lot of the season with them and hasn't really continued the production. He is on a similar pace to his overall 2023-24 numbers, but with lower shot rates and time on ice overall. The problem is that 47-point pace is a far cry from the 68-point pace from the end of the 2023-24 season. There isn't an incredibly obvious culprit. To jump back up to that pace though he will need to increase his time on ice, increase his shot rates, and become a more active participant on the power play.

Jared McCann has already had a tale of two seasons in 2024-25. Through the end of December, he had put up points in 19 games. In those 19 games there were six games where he did not get a goal. Since January he has 10 games with a point, but only one with a goal. Also, instead of getting 18-20 minutes a night overall, he is in the 14-to-17-minute range. In 2023-24 he was absolutely snake bitten in the first half and slightly rebounded in the second.

So far in 2024-25 McCann was on fire to start the season getting big minutes and scoring goals, but lately he has lost a lot of playing time and is primarily providing assists. His shooting percentage is criminally low at 3.5 percent over this time period, but he has also lost almost a shot per game on average. Moral of this story is that for McCann to repeat his recent big second half, he is going to need a lot to go right, though given the recent loss of time on ice and shot rates he is going to need a lot to go right just to keep up what he was doing through the first half of 2024-25.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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