Welcome back in all to the world's #1 most trusted NHL salary cap article, how's everyone's Thursday going so far? As we're about to start Four Nations, I thought this would be a good time to get in a little check-in. I did want to highlight two recent transactions when they were announced but given that this coincided with the report that the salary cap was going to rise, I had to give my thoughts elsewhere. Let's start off with an under the radar trade that was in now way talked about for months. Sometimes in the NHL there's no secrets, just head starts.
The New York Rangers acquire J.T. Miller, Erik Brannstrom, and Jackson Dorrington from Vancouver for Filip Chytil, Victor Mancini, and a conditional 2025 first round pick.
Alright, so let's break this down from a cap standpoint, team, then of course fantasy, starting with the Rangers and primarily J.T. Miller. Don't get me wrong, I like Erik Brannstrom, and I know he had previously been on waivers a couple times this season, but always thought that he was a decent piece to have on a club. Jackson Dorrington is at Northeastern University and having watched maybe one Wisconsin Badger hockey game this season, I can't tell you heads or tails on anything university hockey at the moment.
I'm past the point of deeming that either side of a trade either "won" or "lost" a deal, but my immediate reaction was that the Rangers may have gotten the better part of this one…while now, I may be leaning it to be more even, with all the details that have come out. First off, welcome back to New York to J.T. Miller as he got his wish to put on that blue sweater once again. Miller has been up and down for fantasy this season, but he is 100% a player that I have rostered in the past and wished was on my team now. To go along with the 35 points, he offers hits and blocked shots, and in the past also being multi-position eligible. He'll bounce Vincent Trocheck from the top line center in New York and can see production on offense staying high playing next to Artemi Panarin. Where I really think he can help this Rangers club though is on the power play, as that unit was what carried this club to so many wins the last two seasons. I still think that there's a possibility this power play with Adam Fox at the top has the potential to be a group that I don't want to see come playoffs. I've been more disappointed in this Rangers club this season than encouraged, but for some reason I feel like this Rangers club is going to make a deep playoff run. I go off nothing other than this season has already been weird, so why wouldn't that extend into playoffs?
Now let's talk about this trade for Vancouver. Elias Pettersson – well the center Elias Pettersson and not the defensemen. You want to be the man in Vancouver? It's your time bud. I could not have been higher on him as a rookie and have been waiting for him to take that next step, so center stage has to be now. This situation between Miller and Pettersson was so strange, and I still wonder what ultimately led to Bo Horvat as well, which felt like was hardly talked about. Where I think Vancouver made out well here was first getting a 25-year-old center in Filip Chytil back in the trade. Chytil is a player that I've been impressed by in deep Rangers playoff runs, and I'm just going to say it now…this may be another case of a player that leaves New York and immediately has a positive offensive impact. Keep an eye out for that for fantasy, folks. Chytil is going to skate on a line with Brock Boeser at even strength, meaning more ice time than previous for the Rangers, and may also see more time spent on special teams. You guys know I love center depth come playoffs, getting a good player in the dot back in this trade was excellent.
Last week, I talked about how with the cap going up, why retain salary? New York, if you want J.T. Miller, we'll make the salaries matchup, but you're going to be the one carrying his $8M hit until 2029-'30. Vancouver did exactly this, and now has around $7M in cap space to go right back to market with. With Thatcher Demko playing better in his last couple starts, and a break that came at the perfect time for Quinn Hughes health, I really do look at Vancouver to re-imagine this roster before deadline. I would be very cautious to move the pick that the got back from New York that is top 13 protected in this year's draft, that's going to have real value and with the option to potentially make a playoff run and have two picks in the first round is a luxury that few teams have year-to-year.
The Dallas Stars acquire Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci from San Jose for a 2025 1st round pick and a conditional 2025 4th round pick (the pick becomes a 3rd round selection if the Stars reach the Stanley Cup finals)
This trade sort of got buried but I wanted to shed some light to it as this is going to bolster the ceiling for this Dallas club moving closer to playoffs. I like where the Stars are at right now but have said that the past two seasons just to watch them run out of steam after high leverage rounds of playoff hockey. This has been true the past two seasons, with last year's playoffs going into a game seven against the Golden Knights, moving on and getting in a track meet with the Avalanche in six games, before ultimately losing to the Oilers in six. Dallas did have a one-game lead in the Conference Final against Edmonton before dropping the next three, with their season coming to an end. Adding Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci doesn't solve every issue this club has, but it does not hurt. I wrote on here when Tyler Seguin got hurt, that his cap hit going to LTIR opened up options for what this club could do for their roster, and as much of a bummer it was that Seguin went down when he looked like he was playing well, they could use that money and make a move or two. Adding Ceci and Granlund does not ultimately close the door on more options, but this is coming close to a point where the hand is off the chess piece unless the Stars are looking to move salary.
Adding Granlund helps this team in a couple different ways. He can hop in at center if needed at any time with Matt Duchene as a Band-Aid Boy Trainee (we call 'em like we see 'em here at Dobber) and if Mavrik Bourque struggles in the dot at times, Granlund can fill that role for a checking line center as well as center on a power play unit. For fantasy, I currently roster him and can only see production with an arrow pointing up. Let's face it, Dallas is a better situation currently than San Jose and I'm curious with a larger sample size what this Stars second line that he is currently skating on is going to produce. For all you DFS folks out there, keep an eye on these lines, as there's going to be times where this Dallas second line is going to have softer matchups while also maintaining correlation at all strengths.
I can keep it shorter with Cody Ceci. I'm sure he's not rostered in many leagues out there and thought that he was a thrown in for San Jose to cut salary and with Miro Hieskanen currently on IR. However, he has been playing high minutes for the Stars since coming over, which I didn't see coming from him in this transaction. While he might not be a fit for fantasy, he makes for a decent cheap option for DFS depending on the slate.
In return, San Jose received a 2025 first rounder and a conditional pick. That first rounder may come at selection 28 or possibly later, but the goal here has not changed for them. Bottom out and get as many first round or higher round picks as you can to rebuild this team around what I would say an extremely promising young group. Right now, they have two selections (one is their own pick) in round one but I think that this could be a club that adds another second rounder or even third to their total pick summary. If a club were to get desperate to move a piece, San Jose isn't currently retaining any salaries which can help them potential acquire assets as we move into next season.
*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com
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