Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As the NHL season progresses, fantasy managers are searching for players who can provide an edge in key categories. This week, we break down the performances of five intriguing players: Gabriel Vilardi, Mikael Granlund, Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor McMichael, and Filip Hronek. Using per-60 metrics, we analyze their fantasy value and identify areas where they can contribute the most.

Analysis Overview

To evaluate these players, we rely on key per-60 metrics such as Goals/60, Assists/60, Shots/60, Hits/60, Shots Blocked/60, and Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG/60). These stats help normalize production across different ice times, giving a clearer view of a player's impact.

Our visual analysis includes:

Stacked Bar Graphs comparing each player's performance to league averages.

Scatter Plot (FPPG vs. TOI/GP) to highlight player efficiency based on ice time.

Bubble Chart (Hits/60 vs. Shots Blocked/60) to showcase defensive impact and physicality.

Player Analyses

Gabriel Vilardi

Key Strengths: Elite goal-scoring efficiency, strong shooting percentage, above-average ice time.

Concerns: Low physicality, minimal shot-blocking contribution.

Vilardi has emerged as a high-end offensive option this season. His Goals/60 (1.43, 95th percentile) places him among the league's top finishers, and he's thriving in an offensive role with an Offensive Zone Start % of 78% (95th percentile). His Shooting Percentage (23%) suggests he's capitalizing on high-quality chances, but it may not be fully sustainable over the long run.

However, his contributions outside of scoring are lacking. With just 0.65 Hits/60 (4th percentile) and 2.38 Shots Blocked/60 (39th percentile), he doesn't add much in leagues that prioritize physicality. Vilardi is a great fantasy option in goal-heavy formats but won't move the needle in banger leagues.

Mikael Granlund

Key Strengths: Elite playmaking, high involvement in offensive plays, strong FPPG production.

Concerns: Low physicality, high giveaway rate.

Granlund continues to showcase his ability as a facilitator. His Assists/60 (1.77, 94th percentile) and Primary Points/60 (27.78, 99th percentile) rank him among the league's top playmakers. His IPP (71%, 87th percentile) indicates that he is directly involved in a significant portion of his team’s offense while on the ice.

While Granlund excels in offensive production, his Giveaways (61, 90th percentile) pose an issue in leagues where turnovers are penalized. He also lacks physicality, contributing only 2.18 Hits/60 (28th percentile) and 2.08 Shots Blocked/60 (31st percentile). However, in leagues where assists and FPPG are prioritized, he remains a valuable asset.

Jonathan Huberdeau

Key Strengths: Well-rounded offensive production, elite rush attempts, strong shooting efficiency.

Concerns: High giveaway rate, low physicality.

Huberdeau remains a reliable offensive contributor, posting 1.20 Goals/60 (90th percentile) and 1.14 Assists/60 (75th percentile). His ability to create offensive chances is evident in his Rush Attempts (96th percentile), showing his skill at entering the offensive zone with control. His Shooting Percentage (20%) is well above the league average, reinforcing his ability to finish plays efficiently.

However, Huberdeau's Giveaways (63, 91st percentile) are a concern, especially for leagues that penalize turnovers. Additionally, his physicality metrics (1.95 Hits/60, 24th percentile and 2.58 Shots Blocked/60, 44th percentile) remain below average. He's best utilized in fantasy leagues that focus on offensive production rather than defensive categories.

Connor McMichael

Key Strengths: Above-average shot volume, strong finishing ability, solid all-around play.

Concerns: Below-average physicality, moderate defensive impact.

McMichael is quietly having a solid season, posting 1.20 Goals/60 (90th percentile) and 1.39 Assists/60 (85th percentile) while also ranking well in Shots/60 (7.59, 84th percentile). His Shooting Percentage (16%) suggests that his goal production is sustainable if he maintains his shot volume.

One of McMichael's most intriguing attributes is his ability to create rebounds, ranking in the 99th percentile for Rebounds Created. However, his Hits/60 (1.77, 21st percentile) and Shots Blocked/60 (1.52, 17th percentile) indicate a lack of physicality. He is a solid all-around offensive player but doesn't contribute much in banger leagues.

Filip Hronek

Key Strengths: High ice time, decent playmaking ability, moderate defensive contributions.

Concerns: Low shot volume, minimal goal production.

Hronek stands out with 23:58 TOI/GP (97th percentile), making him one of the most relied-upon defensemen in the league. His Assists/60 (1.12, 74th percentile) show that he contributes to offensive production, though he lacks goal-scoring ability (0.22 Goals/60, 33rd percentile).

Defensively, Hronek provides moderate physical contributions, ranking in the 51st percentile for Hits/60 (3.89) and 51st percentile for Shots Blocked/60 (2.84). His Giveaways (37, 60th percentile) are manageable, but his lack of high-end offensive upside limits his fantasy potential outside of deep leagues where TOI is valued.

Final Takeaways

Vilardi is an elite goal-scorer with strong shooting efficiency, but his lack of hits and blocks limits his appeal in physical leagues.

Granlund is a high-end playmaker who thrives in assist-heavy formats but provides little in terms of hits and blocks.

Huberdeau remains a strong all-around option for fantasy managers needing offense but is risky in turnover-heavy leagues.

McMichael is a solid all-around offensive performer with strong shot volume, though he lacks physicality.

Hronek is a valuable fantasy defenseman in TOI-heavy leagues but lacks elite offensive upside.

These five players offer unique value depending on league format. If you need goal-scoring, Vilardi is the best choice. For assist-heavy formats, Granlund is a strong option. If you prioritize ice time and defensive contributions, Hronek provides depth. Adjust your roster accordingly!

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) combines goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits, weighted to reflect their fantasy relevance, divided by games played. This calculation ensures that players are evaluated comprehensively based on their overall contributions to fantasy scoring.

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Data Source: NaturalStatTrick (February 9, 2025)