One of the arguments against midseason international tournaments is the risk of players being injured in a tournament game. That threat came true for fantasy teams rostering Shea Theodore, as he will miss NHL regular-season games in addition to the rest of the tournament with a wrist injury. Add to that the fact that the Golden Knights have a history of LTIR'ing players and you have that unsettling feeling that Theodore could be out until the NHL playoffs. However, even assuming Theodore's wrist is broken, his recovery timeline could allow for a return before the NHL playoffs as a best-case scenario. That could mean availability in some form for the fantasy playoffs, but again, that is if he recovers quickly. I would bet that he is out for at least a month, though.

Shea Theodore exits the game after this hit from Adrian Kempe. pic.twitter.com/ivDrEMcbUx

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 13, 2025

Theodore is in the top 5 in scoring among defensemen (48 PTS in 55 GP) while finding his way onto Vegas's top power play again, so he is not easily replaceable. Adding a sub-50% rostered (on Yahoo) player that receives some power-play time could be an option. That could include players like Brandt Clarke, Darren Raddysh, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Grzelcyk, or Mason Lohrei, to name a few. They won't replicate Theodore's production, and I'm not suggesting they'll be on their teams' top power play, but there's always a small chance they could go on a run. Every league is different, so you'll have to perform your own research and analysis.

As for who will move onto Vegas’s top power play while Theodore is out, it may be a tossup. Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin both have very similar point totals and power-play icetime averages this season. I might give the slight advantage to Hanifin here, who is a left-handed shot like Theodore is. But I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it is Pietrangelo. We’ll have to wait and see, I guess.

I love these tournaments because there aren't enough of them, so I have to accept the fact that losing Theodore from one of my contending fantasy teams is a price to pay. This particular team is already without Kirill Kaprizov and Noah Dobson, so my hope is that at least two of them return in time for my fantasy playoffs a month from now. Too much of an ask? Okay, maybe just one. This team has already clinched a playoff spot and has banked enough points to be in first place at the break, so there's no urgency for these players to return immediately. But it would provide piece of mind.

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Some 4 Nations news:

Cale Makar missed Friday's practice due to illness and is questionable to play in tonight's (Saturday's) showdown with the US. That's what it took for newly recruited Thomas Harley to be allowed to practice with the Canadian team. Travis Sanheim, who did not play on Thursday, will enter the lineup to replace Theodore. Harley will enter the lineup if Makar isn't well enough to play. 

Sam Bennett may draw in for Canada in place of Travis Konecny. Bennett gives Canada more of a physical presence and may match up with the Tkachuk brothers. Panthers' teammates battling each other could make for an interesting storyline.

Kevin Lankinen is expected to start in goal for Finland against Sweden. Juuse Saros allowed six goals to the Americans on Thursday, so a change in net is justified. Should Lankinen have been the starter for the Finns all along? Saros is the more established NHL starter, but Lankinen is having a better season as per the Frozen Tools Goalie Compare.

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Due to a shortage of NHL-level defensemen for the 4 Nations, Finland has been using a five-forward power play. When you need production and are not concerned about a lack of defense, perhaps that's the way to go. Yet this is a practice that isn't often used in the NHL and seems to attract attention whenever it is used.

Of the 30 most productive power-play combinations in the league from Frozen Tools Report Generator, none used a five-forward combination. One even used only a three-forward, two-defenseman combination, and that was Washington with Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, and Alex Ovechkin. The most productive five-forward combination is Toronto's with John Tavares, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Knies, who are tied as the 34^th-most productive unit with six goals. In the end, having a true power-play quarterback for a defenseman still seems to matter, although a small sample size may also affect the results.    

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The Top 100 Roto Rankings for February will be published later today. Based on reader feedback and my other observations, I'll discuss three players who will be new to the Top 100 this month, as well as three more players who have either fallen significantly or completely out of the Top 100.

Risers

Matt Duchene

The addition of Duchene to the Top 100 is a suggestion from an X follower, and I am certainly on board with the idea. Back-to-back three-point games has placed Duchene back into point-per-game territory (55 points in 55 games). In a season where more was expected of certain Stars scorers, Duchene also happens to be the teams' leading scorer. A 22.0 SH% may pull him back down to earth, but also keep in mind that Duchene is also on another one-year contract with the Stars, so the 34-year-old veteran is perhaps playing for something for multiple years now that he is on the back half of his career.

Tomas Hertl

Hertl has been a decent player for Vegas since being added at the trade deadline last season, but he has really turned it up a notch over the past month with 16 points over his last 15 games. Over the last half-dozen seasons, Hertl's production has very consistently been between the 0.7-0.9 PTS/GP range, and that is no different this season. He's a consistent scorer who often doesn't get noticed, but consistency is a great thing to have in the top 100.

Gabriel Vilardi

At the 4 Nations break, Vilardi is part of the league's top forward line in terms of goals for as per the Frozen Tools Report Generator. The trio of Vilardi, Mark Scheifele, and Kyle Connor has 39 goals for together, which is eight goals higher than the next-highest combo. Connor is in the top 10 in league scoring and Scheifele is just outside it, which means Vilardi has been able to pick up a ton of points. Already with a career-high 51 points in 56 games, Vilardi is on pace for 75 points, assuming he stays healthy. That has always been the big "if" for this Band-Aid Boy, but there's been no if's, and's, or but's about his 2024-25 production so far.

Fallers

Adrian Kempe

The timing of this might not be great, as Kempe scored a goal in Sweden's opener at the 4 Nations. Yet in the NHL, Kempe's production has been slipping. Although he has points in back-to-back games for the Kings, Kempe went six games without a point before that. Part of including Kempe here is an adjustment to his ranking, as his preseason ranking of 29 was quite high, and I don't believe it should be there anymore. Anze Kopitar, who is Kempe's regular partner on the top line, has also turned cold with just two points in his last nine games and just one goal since January 1 (17 games).

Charlie McAvoy

McAvoy had moved onto the injured list when he was sidelined in mid-January, but I couldn't find a place for him when he was healthy again. Although injuries have slowed McAvoy a bit, he seems affected by the Bruins' decline in scoring. After a weak start (8 PTS in first 24 GP), McAvoy has rebounded a bit with 15 points in his last 26 games and three points in his last four games. However, McAvoy is on pace to finish with 0.46 PTS/GP, which would be his lowest per-game average over his eight-year career.

Matvei Michkov

After a strong start to his rookie season (17 PTS in 21 GP), Michkov has been fading recently with just two points over his last nine games. Those two points were both goals, but they happened to be in one game. Bringing in fellow Russian Andrei Kuzmenko might make the transition to North America easier for Michkov. However, John Tortorella is in full effect here, which means benchings and perhaps even healthy scratches can still occur. That makes it difficult to justify Michkov as being a top 100 option for the rest of the season.

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Enjoy the 4 Nations games! Hopefully the games live up to the hype. I'll be back tomorrow to discuss them. In the meantime, follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads @goodsfantasyhockey and now Bluesky @goodsfantasyhockey.bsky.social