Team Canada punched their ticket to the Four Nations Faceoff Final thanks to a 5-3 win over Team Finland on Monday afternoon. They didn't make it easy on the nerves for Canadian fans as they had a 4-0 lead with seven minutes left in the game and Finland reeled off three goals in under 5:30 to make it a 4-3 game. Sidney Crosby scored on the empty net to seal it, though, and send Canada to a rematch with Team USA on Thursday night.

Both Crosby and Connor McDavid had a goal and an assist, Nathan MacKinnon scored twice, and Sam Reinhart had three helpers to push Canada to a win.

Brayden Point had the other tally. Seth Jarvis was scratched in favour of Travis Konecny.

In the good-news front, Cale Makar was back in the lineup for Canada after missing Saturday night's game due to an illness. The hope is that illness hasn't made its way around the team, but it looks like he'll be all set to go for the final.

Mikael Granlund scored twice for Finland while Esa Lindell broke Jordan Binnington's shutout to get his team on the board.

Binnington saved 23 of 26 shots in the win.

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Both Matthew Tkachuk and Auston Matthews were out of the lineup for USA's game against Team Sweden on Monday night. It appears as if both will be fine for the final and this was more of a rest/recuperate issue rather than any serious injury issue.

Connor Hellebuyck had the night off as Jake Oettinger got the start while Jeremy Swayman was the backup.

Brady Tkachuk was injured in the first period after crashing into the net, tried to gut it out, but left the game from the second period onward.

Sweden won that game by a thin 2-1 margin on the back of a great goaltending performance from Samuel Ersson. The Philadelphia Flyers netminder stopped 31 of 32 shots faced to give Sweden the regulation win. He was the difference in the game, and something Flyers fans should be happy about as they look to make a playoff push when the NHL returns.

Jesper Bratt and Gustav Nyquist had the goals for Sweden while Chris Kreider registered USA's lone tally in the opening minute of the game.

Oettinger faced 23 shots and stopped 21 of them.

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Last week, I started reviewing my personal preseason projections for certain players I was high on, focusing on those who were succeeding, and then those that were failing, when I did my first review back in December. Today, we continue the series by looking at players I was low on who were exceeding my projections in mid-December, what they have done since, and what we can expect moving forward.

Data is from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools. As a reminder: my personal projections have all players projected for 82 games played.

Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles Kings)

Preseason Projection: 37 goals, 38 assists, 26 PP points, 275 shots, 35 blocks, 124 hits

As of Today (53 games): 25 goals, 21 assists, 9 PP points, 163 shots, 25 blocks, 62 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 39 goals, 33 assists, 14 PP points, 252 shots, 39 blocks, 96 hits

Since the mid-December update, it has been a mix of good and bad for Kempe. The good is in the 25 games since that update, he has 11 goals and 85 shots, but the bad is he has just seven assists, four PP points, 27 hits, and 9 blocks. For the season as a whole, Kempe is a top-40 player in both standard Yahoo! and ESPN points formats, and that would exceed where I had him projected (61^st on my board). However, he was much more productive through the first couple months of the season than the more recent couple of months, and without a turnaround down the stretch, his end-of-season ranking may not be far from where I had him.

It all comes down to the Los Angeles power play. In the 25 games since that December update, the Kings are 31^st in the league with five power-play goals (only the New York Islanders are lower). On a per-minute basis, Los Angeles is 29^th by PP goal scoring. Without an exceptional hot streak at even strength, Kempe playing on a team that is scoring one power play goal every five games is not enough to sustain a top-50 fantasy value, especially considering his decline in hits. If the power play can turn itself around down the stretch, things are looking up for Kempe. If not, it is hard to see his value getting higher than it has been this season.

Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)

Preseason Projection: 45 goals, 42 assists, 32 PP points, 243 shots, 70 blocks, 81 hits

As of Today (57 games): 31 goals, 31 assists, 20 PP points, 149 shots, 49 blocks, 69 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 45 goals, 45 assists, 29 PP points, 214 shots, 71 blocks, 99 hits

The first couple of months were looking very bad for my projection as Reinhart had 19 goals and 20 assists through 29 games, pacing for a 54-goal, 57-assist season. That stretch saw Florida sit fifth in the league by goals per minute, and Reinhart looking on his way to his first career 100-point season.

However, there has been a downturn for Reinhart mirrored by the team. Since December 12^th, Florida is 18^th in the league by goals per minute and Reinhart has 12 goals and 11 assists in 28 games. To be clear: 12 goals and 11 assists in 28 games is still a 35-goal, 32-assist season, and that's a great season for like 95% of regular forwards in the NHL. That is not good for Reinhart, considering what he did in 2023-24 and what he did through the first two months of 2024-25.

There should be a turnaround, though. Since December 12^th, despite being 18^th by goals per minute, Florida is 2^nd by both shots and expected goals per minute (only Edmonton is higher). Their top PP unit also scored six goals in eight games after Aaron Ekblad's return from injury. With a bit better luck in finishing, and an improved power play, Reinhart should see a production increase down the stretch, though Florida is tied for the fewest games remaining on the schedule (25), so buyer beware.

Kyle Connor (Winnipeg Jets)

Preseason Projection: 39 goals, 45 assists, 25 PP points, 277 shots, 25 blocks, 18 hits

As of Today (56 games): 30 goals, 39 assists, 23 PP points, 177 shots, 34 blocks, 11 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 44 goals, 57 assists, 34 PP points, 259 shots, 50 blocks, 16 hits

This isn't a huge part of his value, but it is funny that Connor already has 34 blocks on the season, smashing his previous career-high of 26 blocks back in 2017-18. He has a chance to double his previous career-best in shot blocks. Hockey is a funny game.

The two big misses are the assists and the power-play points.

As for the assists, his 1.62 even-strength assists per 60 minutes is a career-high mark, and 51% higher than his three-year average (1.07). The team is shooting 12.9% with him on the ice at even strength, also a career-high, and 29% higher (relatively speaking) than his three-year average. His top line is just having a great season. C'est la vie.

The power play is something else entirely. Connor has been on the ice for 12.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 this season. His previous career-high was 9.1/60 minutes back in 2018-19, so the scoring this year is roughly 40% higher than his previous career-best mark. Across the 2021-2024 seasons, Connor was on the ice for 7.9 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4. That means his mark in 2024-25 is 60% higher than his three-year average. As a team, the Jets lead the league by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4, and they clear the next-closest team by more than 30%.

Considering the assists, PP points, and blocks, it seems likely Connor exceeds my preseason value for him. The only question is how high he gets because he's a top-10 player in standard Yahoo! and ESPN points leagues as it is. Does he stay there? A lot depends on the power play staying where it is, but consider that since Christmas, Winnipeg is tied for the fourth-fewest power-play opportunities per game. If that top unit hits a cold streak, they may not have the opportunities to make it up in volume. Just something to consider.

Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks)

Preseason Projection: 12 goals, 77 assists, 41 PP points, 181 shots, 63 blocks, 34 hits

As of Today (47 games): 14 goals, 45 assists, 22 PP points, 136 shots, 44 blocks, 7 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 26 goals, 79 assists, 38 PP points, 237 shots, 77 blocks, 12 hits

The assists, the power-play points, and the hits+blocks are all pretty close to what my preseason projection had. The miss has been the shots and goals. I want to talk about those for a second.

In his 47 games, Hughes is averaging 17.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes, an increase of roughly 12% from the 2023-24 season. Subsequently, his shots on goal per 60 minutes has increased roughly 17% (from 5.9 to 6.9). What is interesting about that is in 2024-25, defencemen are landing 40.5% of their shot attempts on goal, a decline from 42.2% last season. Conversely, Hughes is landing 38.6% of his attempts on goal, an increase from 36.9% a year ago. In other words, defencemen are landing fewer attempts on net, but Hughes has gone in the other direction, and combined it with a career-high shot rate and a career-high shooting percentage. That has led to the season he has had.

There are a couple of concerns, though.

The first is the injury that kept him out of four games leading to the Four Nations break, and the Four Nations Cup itself. Hopefully he doesn't miss more time than that, but we'll need an update from him or the team in the next week.  

The other is the shot rate was declining before the injury: Hughes managed 20.8 shot attempts per 60 minutes through his first 20 games of the season and 15.9 attempts/60 across 27 games since. What has helped him is shooting 14.7% in that recent 27-game span. That is extremely high for any defenceman, and if he can't boost his shot rate again when he comes back, the goal scoring will crash. However, I have doubted Hughes's fantasy upside in multi-cat leagues before.

Jakob Chychrun (Washington Capitals)

Preseason Projection: 10 goals, 27 assists, 9 PP points, 162 shots, 142 blocks, 73 hits

As of Today (50 games): 14 goals, 21 assists, 12 PP points, 115 shots, 58 blocks, 35 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 23 goals, 34 assists, 20 PP points, 189 shots, 95 blocks, 57 hits

For combined shots, hits, and blocks, my preseason projection was 377, and Chychrun is on pace for 341. That is pretty close. I am off by assists, but it's not a catastrophic miss. What has been a miss is the goals and power-play points.

As for the goals, it seems pretty obvious what happened: shooting percentage. Chychrun went into the break shooting 12.2% this season. His previous career-high mark was 10.2% in the shortened COVID season, and his three-year average was 6.1%. So far, Chychrun's shooting percentage is double his three-year average. It is hard to feel bad about missing on that because projecting players to double their typical shooting percentage is a losing cause.

The power-play points are a bit of luck, too. Up until Alex Ovechkin's injury on November 18^th, Chychrun was earning just 26.9% of the power-play time and had zero power-play points. Ovechkin was hurt, Chychrun replaced him on the power play, and he accumulated 11 power-play points in the next 25 games.

Washington is a much better team than any of us were expecting, but Chychrun has doubled his three-year average shooting percentage and Ovechkin, who had never missed 10 games in any 82-game season of his career, has already missed 16 games. Expecting those two things to happen was far-fetched, and sometimes there's just nothing we can do about a season like this. It is what makes fantasy hockey the game that it is.