Saturday’s Picks: Pasta To Keep Firing, An Avalanche In Music City, & A Goalie Battle In Toronto

Flip Livingstone

2025-02-22

While most of the hockey world still catches its collective breath after what was a wildly entertaining 4 Nations Face-Off best-on-best tourney, us betting degenerates are already back in the lab looking for some angles to exploit during what is sure to be a frenetic stretch of NHL and betting action. With so many important pieces across the league playing just Thursday night, there could be some roster shuffling and line juggling that will have an impact on tonight's selections – be sure to double-check lineups before laying down any loot.

Now that the tournament is in the rearview and the March 7 NHL trade deadline is on the horizon, this is sure to be a tough stretch to handicap from a betting perspective while front-office execs look to bolster rosters for big playoff pushes, so dial back the wagers and dig into some serious research. We've got everything covered below with our top-three selections as well as favourite side bets to sprinkle on. Good luck and let's get this paper.

Complete 2024-25 Saturday Record (Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks):

Gold: 8-7
Silver: 8-7
Bronze: 7-8
Side Bets (Located at Bottom of Article): 26-17
2024-25 Combined Saturday Record: 49-40

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Gold Selection
Anaheim Ducks @ Boston Bruins – Pick: David Pastrnak Over 4+ SOG (-190)

Given the relative uncertainty that could be the next couple weeks of hockey betting, throwing down a gold pick or "lock" selection isn't exactly a straight-forward process but a red-hot David Pastrnak at home against the hapless Anaheim Ducks is as good as it's going to get this fine Saturday. There's no denying it was a relatively slow start to the season for the Bruins' talisman, one in which he registered only eight tallies over the first 25 games, but since then he's looked a lot more Pasta-like by popping 20 over the past 32 games. Heading into the 4 Nations break, the 28-year-old sniper was playing with a rejuvenated confidence that has him up to 68 points on the season and the Bruins very much in the mix for a wild-card spot.

Those two angles should factor in nicely tonight with the Bruins looking to pick up where they left off two weeks ago and improve on their third-best home record in the Eastern Conference, which currently sits at 18-9-3. The Ducks also deserve some love having racked up three straight wins and points in seven of their last 10, but this feels like a really good spot for both the Bruins and a player in Pastrnak who has 18 points in 16 career regular-season games against Anaheim – including 11 goals. More importantly, that reinvigorated confidence is resulting in Pastrnak returning to do what he does best: shooting the puck better than most in the NHL. With 71 shots on target across those 16 games against the Ducks, Pastrnak's averaging just over four shots on goal per tilt and we expect him to keep firing against an Anaheim club that allows more shots on net per game than any other squad in the NHL at 32.2. Enough said.

Silver Selection
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Avalanche ML (-128)

A lot of pundits around the NHL looked to the Mikko Rantanen swap as a situation that might end up taking the Carolina Hurricanes over the top and one that could take away from the lethal offensive punch of the Colorado Avalanche. However, with Rantanen looking to find his game and Martin Necas surging, the early consensus is looking quite favourable for the Avs – especially considering Colorado put up four impressive wins in their last five games before the break.

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This one is actually quite simple: Colorado is starting to cook and the Nashville Predators are one of the bigger disappointments in recent memory. The Preds have shown some signs of life at points this season but they have the tendency to allow goals in bunches, they sit outside the top-10 in both power-play and penalty-killing efficiency, and they've really struggled against the Avalanche over the past few seasons. The Avs are in a great spot here to improve on their 11 wins in their last 14 games against Nashville – good enough for our silver pick of the evening.

Bronze Selection
Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Under 6.5 (-162)

This one has goalie battle written all over it. Maple Leafs netminder Anthony Stolarz should return to the crease tonight and if he's able to recapture the form he was rocking before going down with a knee ailment, a stretch that saw him post a 10-5-2 record, 2.08 goals-against average, and .929 save percentage, the Maple Leafs are very much in business to take the Atlantic Division. In the opposing cage could be former longtime Leafs 'tender Frederik Andersen, who has been solid across nine games this season while registering a 6-3-1 record, 2.12 GAA, and .914 SV%. (Check GoaliePost for the latest starting goalie updates.)

Both the Canes and Leafs hang their hats in the defensive end of the rink and both sit in the top-10 in terms of goals-against this season. With most players likely to shake some rust off following an uncharacteristically prolonged midseason break, this one could be a bit of a snoozer when it comes to fluid offensive play. The number at most books is sitting at 5.5, but we like taking it up to 6.5 for a wee bit of insurance and still take the decent number of -162. Slap this under into a four-or-five-leg parlay and thank us later.

Side Bets
Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues – Pick: Jets ML (-126)
Utah Hockey Club @ L.A. Kings – Pick: Over 5.5 (-105)
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goal (+120)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and NHL fantasy writer and daily podcast host with experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him @Flips_Picks.

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