Shooting percentage (S%) is a key stat when evaluating a player's scoring efficiency. Most forwards land in the 9-12% range. For elite goal scorers? They're a different breed. Auston Matthews consistently operates in the 15-18% range, thanks to his deadly accuracy, while David Pastrňák balances volume and precision at 13-16%. Meanwhile, a high-volume shooter like Alex Ovechkin maintains a 12-13% clip.

This week, I'm focusing on players with inflated shooting percentages who have suited up for at least 40 games. These could be players riding a hot streak, either individually or as part of a team-wide surge. The key is figuring out if their production is sustainable or if regression is on the horizon. A consistently high S% over multiple seasons signals legitimacy. If not, expect a drop-off. Context is crucial when evaluating S%, especially in fantasy hockey.

10. Shane Wright – 21.8% – (Seattle Kraken)

Shane Wright's 21.4% shooting percentage is sky-high and unlikely to hold, especially for a young forward still finding his footing in the NHL. With only 16 total games over the past two seasons, there's not much history to compare, but his low shot volume of 1.0 SOG/G suggests this efficiency is more about selective shooting and some puck luck. Players with high S% and low volume often regress as they take more shots. That said, Wright's 62.3% IPP shows he is a key part of Seattle's offense when on the ice, and his game is clearly trending upward. He has taken a big step forward this season, but expect his S% to drop as his role expands and shot totals climb.

9. Jonathan Huberdeau – 20.6% – (Calgary Flames)

Jonathan Huberdeau hitting a 20.6% shooting percentage? That has never happened before. Even at his peak with Florida, when he was cruising at over a point-per-game pace, he hovered around 14.6%. This spike feels more like an outlier than a sustainable trend. That said, before the 4 Nations break, Huberdeau was heating up with a four-game point streak (2 goals, 2 assists) and had quietly racked up 41 points on the year, putting him on pace for 61 over 82 games, which, believe it or not, is his best pace since landing in Calgary. He might finally be turning a corner with the Flames, but let's be real, a 20.6% shooting clip will not last. Expect some regression as the season rolls on.

8. Aliaksei Protas – 21.9% – (Washington Capitals)

If this isn't the poster child for an inflated S%, I don't know who is. His 21.9% shooting percentage is a massive leap from his career 10.7% and last season's 5.3%. While his increased role and ice time naturally led to some improvement, this level of efficiency will not hold. With just 1.8 shots per game (a modest increase from 1.4), his goal surge seems more like unsustainable finishing rather than a true evolution in his game. The fact that all of his points are coming at even strength, with just one power-play point out of 50 total, and that he is not on Ovi's line, is impressive, but unsustainable. Expect a regression in his goal-scoring pace, but his improved role should still keep him productive.

7. Leon Draisaitl – 22.5% – (Edmonton Oilers)

Look, Leon Draisaitl's S% is currently above his career average of 18.6%, but in the last four years, he has posted 18.9%, 21.1%, 19.8%, and 18.5%. He even hit 21.6% in a previous season. Normally, I would say a 22.5 S% is unsustainable, but for Draisaitl, I'm less convinced. His xG at 5v5 and shooting metrics show he is playing with efficiency. While his shooting percentage may regress, his 3.3 shots per game fits his overall play. His consistent xG, control in high-danger areas, and strong even-strength play make his production sustainable. Increased ice time and power-play role will also keep his point production intact, EVEN IF his S% drops.

6. Alex Ovechkin – 18.8% – (Washington Capitals)

This one was a blast to dive into. Before researching Ovi's shooting percentage, I thought it would have been off the charts. Turns out, his career S% is 13.2%, and he has never topped 15%. This season, though, he is hitting an impressive 18.8% through 41 games, his best ever. While it is clear Ovi remains a scoring machine, it's hard to ignore that this level of efficiency likely isn’t sustainable, but hey, the guy just dropped a hat trick on the weekend and is on track to break Gretzky's scoring record. He won't stop at anything. I'm going out on a limb here (not really), this pace will hold until he eclipses that milestone.

5. Brayden Point – 24.2% – (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Brayden Point is doing Brayden Point things again, putting up another stellar season. His 24.0% shooting percentage is well above his career average of 18.8%, and while that seems unsustainable, it is only slightly higher than his last two seasons (21.7% and 20.2% respectively). Point is an elite finisher, so while some regression is likely, it is not a dramatic red flag. He is on pace for 47 goals, which is well within his capabilities. With elite linemates and heavy power-play usage (74.4% PP share), expect a slight dip in efficiency, but he will still finish with a strong goal total.

4. Gabriel Vilardi – 24.5% – (Winnipeg Jets)

We have been waiting for Gabriel Vilardi‘s breakout, and it’s finally here! That said, his 24.5% shooting percentage is well above his career norm of 13-16%, signaling some inevitable regression. While his scoring touch remains strong, he is likely riding a hot streak, and his current goal pace will probably dip. However, playing alongside elite talents like Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele (on this list) gives him plenty of high-quality chances, so while his S% will come down, he should still be a productive scorer. Enjoy the ride, but do not expect him to keep converting at this exceptional rate long-term.

3. Matt Duchene – 22.1% – (Dallas Stars)

Matt Duchene's shooting percentage has jumped to a striking 21.7% this season, well above his career average of 13.6%. This is a major outlier, he has fluctuated between 18.9% in 2021-2022 and as low as 6.7% in 2020-2021, so we are definitely looking at some regression here. His 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 11.1% is in line with his career norm but still points to overperformance.  He has only cracked 15% shooting twice, with a high of 18.9%. This 9% jump in S% on fewer shots per game suggests he is getting lucky. With a PDO of 1023, it is safe to say his shooting percentage will likely regress to the low teens as the season unfolds.

2. Artturi Lehkonen – 22.5% – (Colorado Avalanche)

Lehkonen is having a stellar season with 23 goals and 34 points in 47 games, but his 22.1% S% is a significant jump from his career average of 11.4%. While he’s had solid S% in recent seasons (15.5% and 14% respectively), this pace is unsustainable. His 5v5 S% is 10.9%, and his xG rate of 3.02 per 60 shows he is getting quality chances. With 2.2 shots per game, his scoring pace is steady, but his S% will likely regress. If he continues to get an increased role in Colorado's offense, especially on the power play, then it should keep his point production strong even as his shooting percentage normalizes.

1. Mark Scheifele – 25.9% – (Winnipeg Jets)

Mark Scheifele is having an insanely efficient goal-scoring season, sitting at a 25.4% S% through 57 games. While he's consistently been an above-average shooter (typically 16-20%), this is well above his career norm of 17.3%. Over the past three seasons, he’s hovered around 18-20%, so it's reasonable to think he is trending toward the higher end of his usual range. His shot volume has dropped, suggesting he’s being more selective with his opportunities. While some regression in his goal production is likely, the Jets’ current hot streak could help Scheifele maintain this heater longer than expected if he stays in sync with the team's success.

Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more content/fantasy hockey analysis, follow and message me on X @Punters_hockey.