Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a currently active North American forward who played in the NHL as a teen

CLUE #2 – After my rookie season, my scoring pace increased each of the next four seasons

CLUE #3 – I'm a five time 30+ goal scorer 

CLUE #4 – Not surprisingly given clue #3, I've never finished a season with a single digit SH%

CLUE #5 – Based on where I stand now, my streak of nine straight seasons of 10+ PPTs might be in danger of coming to an end

CLUE #6 – Despite Clue #5, I've only had 20+ PPPts once, and that was in 2022-23

CLUE #7 – I've played for two NHL teams, and served as captain for the first one

CLUE #8 – I've appeared in the playoffs in fewer than half my seasons, making it out of the first round just once 

CLUE #9 – I am widely regarded as one of the best in the NHL at a skill that tends to only matter in deeper multi-cat leagues

CLUE #10 – I'm second cousins with NHLer Travis Konecny

CLUE #11 – The two teams I've played for are, in order, the Canucks and Islanders

CLUE #12 – My initials are B.H.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – In an NHL cap league where each team has 6D in their active line-up and scoring is 1.5 for goals, plus extra points for shots, blocks and hits (0.1 to 0.15 each), 0.25 per PIM, and 2 per SHP, a GM of a first place team has the following choices for defensemen retentions (with cap hits – or estimates – in parentheses): Roman Josi ($9.1M), MacKenzie Weegar ($6.1M), Neal Pionk (est $7.8M), Kayden Guhle ($5.5M), Dylan Samburg (est $4.0M), Lane Hutson (<$1M), Simon Nemec (<$1M), Brandt Clarke (<$1M). They also have Alexander Nikishin. They are uncertain which to keep. 

First off, this is a difficult question to answer in view of not knowing how many teams there are in the league, plus what other players this team is likely to keep. If they are in first place though, most likely they have other important players who are also expensive. I'll try to give my best answer, albeit with those unknowns.

Obviously Hutson is a lock. I also think the other two cheapest guys – Nemec and Clarke – merit keeping since they figure to contribute, rather than just being purely cheap building blocks. I happen to think Pionk could thrive on a new team. This is a player who had 25 PPPts the one and only season he was allowed to run a PP1, plus he was a point-per-gamer early this season. At worst he becomes a point-per-every-other-game guy on a new team; but if he goes to Florida or perhaps Carolina, Philly, Minnesota, St. Louis, or San Jose, he could be not just a minute eater, but a PP1 QB. See where he lands, and what his price tag is before you decide on him.

If indeed Pionk leaves the Jets, Samburg, who's made major strides already this season, should cement a spot in the Winnipeg top-four and be a downside 30-40+ point player going forward. His peripherals aren't great though, and he won't see a big uptick in PP minutes. Still, I think he'd be a better keep than Guhle, who is turning into a shutdown d-man, with little to no offensive upside. What it might come down to is Weegar vs. Samberg. With Weegar covering so many bases though, I think Samberg would have to make less than half what Weegar does for Samberg to be kept over Weegar.

Josi is a tough one. I've mentioned him many times in recent columns, noting that he put himself in very select company by posting point per game numbers twice between ages 30 and 34. Yet the others who also achieved this feat did not age well, and those were Hall of Famers Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, and Larry Murphy. I believe we've seen the best of Josi, and it is downhill from here. My advice is to try to trade him, as his elite production was recent enough for another GM to perhaps feel he can rebound to his old form, as he did once previously after dipping to a 72 point pace in 2022-23. If he cannot be traded though, I'd let him go, as I cannot see a universe where he justifies his price tag.

Topic #2 – In a dynasty points only league with no forward positional requirements, has Marco Rossi's strong 2024-25 made him a better own than Leo Carlsson?

I'm guessing if poolies were asked prior to the season where these two would stand as of now, few would've guessed Rossi would have well more than double the points of Carlsson. After all, Rossi sputtered in the second half after being separated from Kirill Kaprizov, with a mere 16 points in his last 40 games, while Carlsson ended his age-19 season above the point per every other game mark, with fairly consistent production throughout the campaign despite, at times, being put into and out of the line-up. Yet here we are, with Rossi having seemingly taken a big step forward, and Carlsson floundering. As to whether this means Rossi has overtaken Carlsson in keeper value, let's do some digging to find out.

Interestingly, despite Rossi having played at least one game in the NHL for four seasons, and being three years older than Carlsson, Rossi has logged barely 50 more NHL games than Carlsson. Still, Rossi did also take the ice for over 100 AHL games, which, while of course not comparable to NHL games, is pro experience. It is fair to say that Rossi is farther along in his development than NHL games played would suggest. Indeed, until this season Rossi appeared to be more of an anchor than asset, seemingly dragging Kirill Kaprizov to under point per game production in the first half of 2023-24 and then, as noted, not even posting point per every other game numbers when separated from Kaprizov, while Kaprizov subsequently went nuclear to the tune of 62 points in 40 games.

This season, however, the Wild still have put Rossi with Kaprizov, and the results were vastly improved for both, with Rossi posting 17 points in 22 Q1 games, while Kaprizov tallied 35 points. Can we say for certain though that Rossi benefitted Kaprizov, versus Kaprizov being so good that anyone could've done as well as Rossi under the circumstances? As it turns out, Rossi has been on the ice for about 55% of Kaprizov's even strength minutes, and the results were that Kaprizov tallied 20 of his 39 ES points during that time. What this means is that Rossi was out there with Kaprizov a little over 50% of the time, and that led to a little over 50% of Kaprizov's even strength points. How did Kaprizov fare with Minnesota's other top-six center Joel Eriksson-Ek? They only took the ice together for about 20% of Kaprizov's minutes, and the result was nine of Kaprizov's 40 ES points. Long story short, neither of Rossi or Eriksson-Ek made Kaprizov better than the other. That bodes well for Rossi to stay in the mix when it comes to Kaprizov, at least for now.

I say at least for now though, since this summer the Wild are finally going to be able to freely spend because the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyout penalties are coming off the books. For the first time since Kaprizov broke out, the Wild, should they choose to do so, can grab a player who is more of a prototypical #1 center than either Rossi or Eriksson-Ek. That unknown looms large, and has to be factored into Rossi's future value.

On the plus side for Rossi though, his IPPs are very solid, as is his secondary assist rate. What that does is legitimize Rossi's production. It also might help convince the Wild that they need not spend to find a center when he could fit the bill.

Turning to Carlsson, it has to be pointed out that Anaheim ranks dead last this season in team goals scored, and second to last in team PP%. Believe it or not, their 2.54 goals per game is actually higher than their 2.49 mark last season. Indeed their 12.1% PP rate lags well behind their 17.5% rate from last season; however, the takeaway is Carlsson's team, while not doing him any favors, is not solely to blame for his struggles.

Carlsson is shooting the puck far less often, albeit with an uptick in SH%. As I write this, in his 48 games Carlsson had zero SOG in nearly 20% of those contests (13 games), in contrast to barely over 15% with 3 or more SOG (8 contests). Looking at things more closely, Carlsson had 11 points in his first 20 games, and only three contests with zero SOG versus three with 4+. Then he missed six games with an injury, and since then seemingly has not been the same. Also, in those first 20 contests, he logged over 18:00 in four games, and under 16:00 in only three. In the 28 games since his return though, he's played 18:00+ only twice, and under 15:00 nine times. It has been a similar story in terms of PP time. I realize an argument can be reasonably made that 28 games should have been more than enough time for Carlsson to have gotten his timing back and returned to "normal;" but who's to say his injury is not lingering? Plus, this is someone who is still only 20 years old, so "normal" might not apply.

Looking at Carlsson's metrics, of concern for sure is his 80% secondary assist rate; however, his overall IPP is actually higher versus last season, at 64.9%. The PP continues to be an issue for him though, as his 50% IPP rate from last season has shrunk to 44%; and that is problematically low for any forward, but even more so for a team struggling so much on the PP, as if so few goals are being scored on the man advantage and Carlsson is factoring into a small fraction of them, that is doubly bad.

I suspect this would be much more clear cut if we were able to fast forward a year; but we don't have that luxury. Still, one thing I didn't mention is Rossi tallied 18 points in the 19 games that Kaprizov missed with injury. That likely is enough to make Rossi the choice all other things being considered. After all, if Rossi is not Kaprizov's center next season, it seems he should be able to still produce. Although we have very little data to use to judge Carlsson, and he was a second overall pick who's still just 20 years old, he probably is not the right keep in a dynasty unless for a team that is rebuilding and is hoping that long term Carlsson will be the superior player.

Topic #3 – In a 10 team dynasty H2H league non-cap league with weekly starts and categories of G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW, W, GAA, SV%, SO, and rosters of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2Util, 2G, 4Bench, 1NA, IR+ would Anton Lundell (who is C and LW eligible) or Matty Beniers (only C eligible) be the better own?

Both are enticing, but, at the same time, also somewhat concerning. With Lundell, you have a player who Florida drafted early but has not yet installed in a top-six role, opting instead for the sandpaper and scoring combo of Sam Bennett plus the elite, but injury-prone, Aleksander Barkov. Still, Lundell showed this season that when he was able to step into a top-six spot he could do quite well.

Beniers was drafted even earlier at second overall, and posted 57 points as an age 20 rookie. Since then though, it has been rough going, with under point-per-every-other-game production last season and being barely above that threshold for 2024-25 thus far.

Looking more closely at Lundell, we can see his IPPs this season are amazing, above 75% overall and 85% on the PP. On top of that, his secondary assist rate is barely more than one in three, which is definitely low for a center. Even if those metrics occurred without him having spent time in the top-six, they would be impressive. But between the absences of Bennett and Barkov, Lundell has had more than his normal share of top six minutes during 2024-25, and clearly from these IPPs he's not been out of place when put into that spot, but rather was able to drive the offense when there.

Also, although if Bennett re-signs Lundell could be locked into his third-line center role, we should keep in mind Barkov, already injury-prone, is not getting younger, and Bennett seems to miss his fair share of games. If, between Barkov and Bennett, there end up being 20-25 games each season for Lundell to spend in the top-six, he could average close to, if not at or above, a point per game in those, meaning if he only is a 40-50 point third liner otherwise, that still likely puts him near or even at 60 point territory. If Bennett leaves, Lundell presumably becomes the everyday second line center though, and should score considerably better than Bennett given their styles and Lundell's IPPs. The issue though is Bennett is not on PP1, so Lundell would need to leap over someone on the depth chart, with not even Bennett having been able to do so. 

As for Beniers, despite his struggles, his ice time has been increasing. But we can't reflexively see it as a concern that he's doing worse despite this, as with increased TOI has come a decrease in OZ%, from 56.1% as a rookie, to under 50% thus season thus far. Also, Beniers' IPPs, both overall and on the PP, are better than his rookie season. Yes, his secondary assist percentage is higher; but at 50% for a natural center it's not a concern.

Overall, being on Seattle is not doing Beniers any favors, as although they are in the middle of the pack in goals per game, their SOG per game and PP scoring rates are both bottom-ten in the league. Also, it wasn't until this season, with high-priced UFA Chandler Stephenson, that any Kraken forward ever averaged 19:00+ per game. In fact, Beniers' average of 18:32 this season so far would rank him fourth in franchise history, with only Stephenson, plus Alexander Wennberg in each of the prior two seasons, averaging more.

With Lundell, the big question was whether he'd stay stuck on the third line, with Beniers it's whether his team will continue to spread around ice time, to the detriment of players like him who presumably could score more if they saw more TOI. But with Beniers, it goes beyond that unfortunately, as he has never averaged two SOG per game; and although his PPTOI puts him 88th in the NHL as I write this, his PPPt total ranks him only tied for 128th. Although as I noted above his team struggles on the PP, Beniers likely needs to shoulder some blame for that. Also, as a pure center, his FOW percentage has never topped 47.5%, whereas Lundell is on pace to be above 50% for the second straight season, plus has winger eligibility too. Moreover, Beniers is at his breakout threshold, such that, lousy TOI and team notwithstanding, he ought to be doing better. He also lags behind Lundell in nearly all of the other categories counted in this league.

In the end, Lundell seems the safer bet, as more things would need to change or improve for Beniers in order for him to project to be better, especially since Lundell could hit the jackpot so to speak if Bennett doesn't re-sign, plus should still get time to shine if (or more like when) Bennett and/or Barkov get hurt plus has C and LW eligibility. Give me Lundell here.

Topic #4 –In a 14 Team, Keep 5, H2H league with 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1G starting and categories of +/- (0.5), G (3), A (2), PIM (0.25), PPG (1), PPA (1), SHG (2), ShG (1), BLK (0.1), HIT (0.1), GWG (1), HT (2), W (5), SHO (3), S (0.2), GA (-1), ShSv (0.2), a GM is debating whether or not to trade their Adam Fox and Kirill Marchenko for Mikko Rantanen. Should they make the deal?

In general, the shallower the league, the more important it is to have true difference makers. This is because every team will be well stacked; so you need to have guys who help you separate from the rest of the pack by going above and beyond in terms of their outputs.

Looking at this league in particular, there is a lot of emphasis on goals; however, SOG somehow is not a stat that counts. The lack of SOG certainly makes Fox more appealing, as SOG has never been his strength, even when he was scoring better than he is now. He is weak though, for a rearguard, in banger stats, although not so much so as to devalue him based on his strong scoring. In other words, he has more than enough positives to offset his weaknesses, and remains elite all things considered.

Rantanen certainly has done well in the goals department, which says a lot considering how much Nathan MacKinnon shoots the puck as a center. Rantanen also was riding a streak of four straight seasons of 100+ scoring rate going into 2024-25, and appeared to be on his way to five with ease, having posted 60 points in his first 44 games. But he has looked like a shell of his former self thus far with the Canes. Although it would be understandable for him to have to go through an adjustment period, three points in seven games, with only five total SOG in his last three contests, is not what you want to see if you own him, or are looking to trade for him.

As for Marchenko, in the thread the GM indicated they also own Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, Jason Robertson, Matt Boldy, and Evan Bouchard. Clearly Marchenko would not be a keeper on this team if this trade is made, with the keepers being either those five, or four of the five plus Fox. As such, the trade truly becomes Rantanen for Fox.

Another key is 40% of skater starters are d-men; thus, if Fox and Bouchard are keepers that would presumably give this team two of the ten best at that position, with Kucherov, Matthews, and either Boldy or Roberston completing their list of five keeps. If instead a deal is made to get Rantanen, then he is swapped in for Fox. What is nice about Rantanen too is he is a RW, which would give this team a nice complement of keepers at various positions.

Someone though did raise an interesting caveat in the thread about Jonathan Huberdeau. No one saw his fantasy fall from grace coming. Yet he left Florida and is not a shell of his former self. In the case of Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon has been his primary linemate at ES and on the PP during his entire NHL career. Rantanen's IPPs are worse compared to what Huberdeau had pre-trade, so that does not allay concerns.

Something else to consider is that dating back to 2020-21, which saw Rantanen start his streak of 100+ point pace campaigns, his cumulative TOI and PP TOI put him third and second among all forwards. Meanwhile, the highest that any Hurricane player ranks is Sebastian Aho at 18th in overall TOI and 36th in PP TOI. Although the difference between third and 18th might not sound like much, it amounts to over 2:00 per game overall, with more than half of that being in PP time. Of course, Rantanen is a UFA after this season; so if things don't work for him on Carolina, he will have no shortage of suitors this offseason, which is in contrast to Huberdeau, who inked a deal with Calgary upon arrival and thus could not go elsewhere when things went awry. Still, the fact we are seeing Rantanen struggle away from MacKinnon has to be a concern.

This is a tough one. I think that seeing this team's other keepers, I'd be inclined not to make a deal to get Rantanen. Bouchard and Fox in a league where 40% of skaters are defensemen is very good, especially when SOG does not count. While for all I know Rantanen might thrive in 2025-26 for whatever team he chooses, it most likely won't equate to the ice time he had in Colorado, nor will he play with MacKinnon. Plus, the sight of him playing at a level so far below his norm, even if only for a short duration, casts enough doubt to not making the deal, especially since my normal rule is when it's a close call, I stick with what I have, since for me I'd rather regret a deal I didn't make than kick myself for one I did.

Topic #5 – In a H2H league which counts W, GAA, SV%, and SO, with 3 roster spots and 4 weekly appearances, how do these five goalies rank for the rest of this season, plus next season: Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Filip Gustavsson, and MacKenzie Blackwood?

Immediately I'm drawn to the fact that only two of the categories are volume-based, with one of them (SO) indeed being volume-based but far less so than something like SVs or GA. To me, that puts Blackwood in last. After 12 straight starts for the Avs in which he gave up either just one goal or two, his next ten saw him post two shutouts, but also give up three goals twice, four goals four times, and two goals twice. So it seems to be that he is falling victim to the reality that being in net for the Avs will earn you a lot of wins, but not do your SV% or GAA many favors. Given the talent level of the rest of the goalies, Blackwood is last for me.

After that though, it gets very murky. Gus is certainly the least proven, and Jesper Wallstedt looms; however, Gus kept the crease this season despite Marc-Andre Fleury being in the mix, and next season Gus will be playing to get his next contract, be it with Minnesota or another team, making it so he'll have ample motivation to succeed. He just isn't top-three material.

Sorokin, to me, is arguably the most skilled of the five. For him to have had a double digit GSAA last season under the circumstances was truly remarkable. For 2024-25, despite a team in front of him that is doing him few favors yet again, he has been able to keep his QS% at 60%, and sneak in some shutouts. This season also he's tended to play well or poorly in stretches, which is good for H2H, versus a goalie who is more all over the map. Still though, him being on the worst team of the five and not able to carry them on his shoulders completely, has to be weighed as part of the equation.

Vasy has rebounded, which, if you read my columns before the season, I said had a very good chance of happening since it was the first season in ages where he didn't either have to play long into the playoffs the season prior, or come back from rehabbing an injury. With a full offseason to rest in 2024, the Vasy of old seemingly has returned. I think he's the best bet to thrive the rest of this season, and I see no reason why he can't again next season so long as the Lightning don't make it too far into the postseason.

Shesterkin is on track for his GAA to rise and SV% to fall for the third straight season. Also, more than a quarter of his starts this season have been really bad starts, which can ruin a H2H week. Of concern as well is him being very up and down, such that it is a roll of the dice to start him for any given week. But he's also a Vezina winner and his play since the calendar flipped to January has been somewhat better, although that is not saying as much as it otherwise would, since he didn't have to rise much to improve.

I feel like Vasy is clearly #1. Him rebounding as well as he has, plus his track record, on top of Tampa being unlikely to go deep in the playoffs, puts him at the top of the pack. As for Sorokin vs. Shesterkin, I worry the Rangers will not do Shesterkin more favors than they have this season thus far, and we've seen he seemingly is not as capable as he once was of standing on his head, making it so his win total, if even higher than Sorokin's, won't be by much. So Sorokin gets the edge and is second among the group, since he's shown he can still play well despite adverse circumstances, which I can't see getting worse. The wild card is Gus. I do think he belongs fourth but there is a universe where he could be as high as second.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team, keep 9 plus 7 prospects league with defenseman scoring of 4.25 for goal, 3 for assist, forward scoring of 3.5 for goal, 2.5 for assist, as well as 0.5 for each hit and 0.5 for each block, a team has as its current defensemen Lane Hutson, Rasmus Sandin, Ryan Pulock, Jeremy Lauzon, Timothy Liljegren, Martin Fehervary, Pavel Mintyukov, plus, as prospects, Artyom Levshunov, Cole Hutson, Denton Mateychuk and Axel Sandin Pellikka. Given this, who would be better for them to own: Mike Matheson or Filip Hronek?

Not entirely surprisingly, Matheson has been supplanted on PP1 by Lane Hutson. And since being shifted off PP1, Matheson, despite still getting PP time which even approached 2:00 per game in Q3, has a mere three PPPts in his last 34 games, and only nine other points. Project that through an entire season and that's a scoring pace under 30 points.

Also troublesome is that Matheson's OZ% is 52.1% this season, versus 42.2% last season and 46.8% in 2022-23. So although Matheson has lost his coveted PP1 spot, it's not like he's been deployed in a manner that should prevent him from being able to produce. Admittedly, his secondary assist rate, at 38%, is quite low for a d-man, and his PP IPP is 76.9%, suggesting he could thrive again if put back on PP1; but of course barring a major collapse by Hutson, PP1 is unattainable, meaning at most Matheson should have a few more assists on the season and might struggle to produce at even a point per every other game over the rest of 2024-25.

Hronek exploded upon arriving in Vancouver; but when the dust settled, his scoring rate was 50, or not much above the point per every other game rate at which he'd consistently produced as a Red Wing. Then last season Hronek finished with a 49 point pace, suggesting that might be his new normal. For 2024-25, he's not been as productive and he's shooting at his lowest per game rate of his career. He is still getting some PP scraps; however, it is notable that half his four PPPts came in the  first three games that Quinn Hughes missed before the break.

Once Quinn returns, of course Hronek will be ticketed back to PP2, where he's been entirely unproductive. Also a concern is Hronek's nearly 75% secondary assist rate, being on the rise for the second straight season, although when partnered with an elite d-man like Hughes, it is plausible for Hronek's secondary assist rate to be perhaps even this high and still sustainable. Otherwise though, his IPP and OZ% are virtually identical to last season. Plus let's not forget that Vancouver's offense has not thrived like it did last season, although as we've seen that has not hurt Hughes.

Looking at all factors, Matheson would give insurance if Hutson gets hurt or somehow endures a sophomore slump. Plus Matheson is set to be a UFA in 2026, and will be only 32, and not far removed from his productive seasons for not very potent Habs teams. On the other hand, Hronek is tied to Quinn Hughes, and we need only look to Devon Toews to see that can easily lead to a player getting 50+ points. And by Hughes having gotten hurt, we saw Hronek would be installed on PP1, which is a big deal. If Vancouver struggles though, Hronek might suffer because his scoring does seem tied to team success.

Given that neither is much better than the other in this format, it really does boil down to who is more likely to help this team. Hronek is a steady Eddie, while Matheson is likely to do worse through 2025-26 but does have a chance to rise again for 2026-27, plus he's Hutson insurance. If it was me, I'd roll the dice with Matheson, as the team's other D are young and it has several prospects ready to step in if Matheson does not rise again after leaving Montreal as a UFA.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Bo Horvat!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.