Analytics Advantage: Lundell, Zuccarello, Fantilli, Ekblad, Cole, and Fantasy Points Per Game

Stas Pupkov

2025-02-27

Welcome back to Analytics Advantage. As the NHL season progresses, fantasy managers are constantly searching for players who can provide an edge. This week, we highlight Anton Lundell, Mats Zuccarello, Adam Fantilli, Aaron Ekblad, and Ian Cole—players whose recent performances warrant a closer look.

Using per-60 metrics, we evaluate their offensive production, defensive impact, and overall fantasy value, ensuring you have the insights needed to make informed lineup decisions.

Analysis Overview

To evaluate these players, we rely on per-60 statistics such as:

  • Goals/60
  • Assists/60
  • Shots/60
  • Hits/60
  • Shots Blocked/60
  • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG/60)

These metrics help normalize production across different ice times, providing a clearer view of a player's impact.

Visual Analysis Includes:

  • Stacked Bar Graphs comparing each player's per-60 stats to position-specific league averages
  • FPPG vs. TOI Scatter Plot to highlight player efficiency based on ice time
  • Hits/60 vs. Shots Blocked/60 Bubble Chart to showcase defensive impact and physicality

Player Analyses

Anton Lundell (F – Florida Panthers)

Key Strengths: Strong playmaking, efficient ice time usage, above-average shooting

Concerns: Moderate physicality, below-average offensive zone starts

Lundell continues to establish himself as a reliable secondary scorer, ranking in the 77th percentile for Primary Points/60 (1.79) and the 81st percentile for Assists/60 (1.48) among forwards. His Shots/60 (6.97, 65th percentile) indicate that while he is not a volume shooter, he generates consistent offensive chances.

Defensive Impact: Lundell contributes modestly in physical categories, with Hits/60 (5.49, 57th percentile) and Shots Blocked/60 (2.59, 68th percentile) both ranking slightly above average.

Fantasy Outlook:

Lundell is a well-rounded center who provides balanced production in offensive and defensive categories. He will not carry a fantasy team but remains a dependable depth option in most leagues.

Mats Zuccarello (F – Minnesota Wild)

Key Strengths: High assist production, strong offensive zone presence, rebound creation

Concerns: Low hit/block rates, turnover risk

Zuccarello remains a high-end playmaker, ranking in the 87th percentile for Assists/60 (1.64). His Offensive Zone Start% (72 percent) is significantly above the position average, allowing him to maximize his offensive potential.

However, Zuccarello's Hits/60 (1.16, 9th percentile) and Shots Blocked/60 (2.11, 49th percentile) make him a non-factor in banger leagues.

Fantasy Outlook:

Zuccarello is an assist-heavy fantasy option who thrives in leagues emphasizing playmaking and special teams contributions but lacks the peripherals needed for multi-category formats.

Adam Fantilli (F – Columbus Blue Jackets)

Key Strengths: Above-average shot volume, offensive zone usage, goal-scoring potential

Concerns: High giveaways, moderate defensive impact

Fantilli has impressed offensively, ranking in the 73rd percentile for Goals/60 (1.00) and the 75th percentile for Shots/60 (7.57). His Rush Attempts (10.00, 88th percentile) suggest he consistently drives play off the rush, making him a dangerous transition player.

However, his Giveaways (70, 98th percentile) are a concern, indicating he loses possession more than most players at his position.

Fantasy Outlook:

Fantilli is a strong offensive contributor who generates shots and goals but comes with turnover risk. His role in Columbus gives him upside, but his overall defensive contributions remain low.

Aaron Ekblad (D – Florida Panthers)

Key Strengths: High ice time, strong defensive impact, effective shooter for a defenseman

Concerns: Low goal-scoring efficiency, moderate shot-blocking

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Ekblad remains a fantasy-relevant blueliner, ranking in the 91st percentile for Assists/60 (1.20) and 78th percentile for Shots/60 (4.96). He is a valuable option in leagues that reward defensemen who contribute offensively.

However, his Shots Blocked/60 (3.16, 17th percentile) are lower than expected for a defenseman, meaning he does not maximize defensive peripheral stats.

Fantasy Outlook:

Ekblad is a high-usage, puck-moving defenseman who generates offense but does not block shots at a high rate. His TOI/GP (23:49, 90th percentile) ensures he remains heavily involved in all situations.

Ian Cole (D – Vancouver Canucks)

Key Strengths: Best-in-class shot-blocking, decent defensive play, valuable in deep leagues

Concerns: Limited offensive production, low shot volume

Cole has emerged as one of the top shot-blockers in fantasy, ranking in the 97th percentile for Shots Blocked/60 (7.57). This alone makes him valuable in leagues that count defensive categories.

However, his offensive impact is minimal. His Primary Points/60 (0.30, 24th percentile) and Goals/60 (0.05, 24th percentile) suggest he offers little in point-heavy formats.

Fantasy Outlook:

Cole is a pure shot-blocking specialist. In deep leagues that count defensive peripherals, he holds value, but in standard formats, he lacks offensive upside.

Final Takeaways

                •             Lundell is a balanced two-way center who provides decent offensive and defensive contributions

                •             Zuccarello remains a strong playmaker, but his lack of physicality limits his fantasy value

                •             Fantilli is an aggressive offensive producer but turnover-prone

                •             Ekblad provides offensive contributions from the blue line, though he is not a high-end shot-blocker

                •             Cole is one of the best shot-blockers in the league but offers minimal offense

If your league emphasizes offensive production, Fantilli and Zuccarello are strong adds. If defensive stats matter, Ekblad and Cole offer value. Lundell is a solid all-around option for multi-category formats.

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) combines goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits, weighted to reflect their fantasy relevance, divided by games played. This calculation ensures that players are evaluated comprehensively based on their overall contributions to fantasy scoring.

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Data Source: NaturalStatTrick (February 25, 2025)

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