DFS Thursday: Tampa Bay Looking to Strike; St. Louis’ Matchup; Minnesota at Home

Andrew Santillo

2025-03-13

Good day, all! I'm telling you guys now, I'm reading this board clearly today. The only wish I have was if some of the clubs I liked were on home ice, but we'll take what we can get. I'm excited about this one, let's dive in!

Slate Preview

Tampa Bay Lightning

It could be a Tampa Bay night for me, and that's for two reasons. First, if Nikita Kucherov ($8,700) ends up suiting up for the Bolts tonight, then I might catch some of the field sleeping thinking that he's going to miss tonight with the DTD designation along with the fact that saving up $8,700 in salary to swap might not be doable for some. I get it, I've been on the commute home before and not hear the notification come through on my iPhone that Aleksander Barkov was a late scratch. I partially blame the Blue Line being as loud as a NASCAR race, but hey, these things happen. If you want to throw Kucherov on the stack, there are plenty of ways you can swap him out with that much salary, just need to be by your device of choice if he is listed as out. The second reason why I like Tampa here so much is because if Samuel Ersson starts tonight, he has led goaltenders recently in a stat that we made up. It's called a "Jarry" …named after, well, we won't go there. Anyways, a Jarry is a start where four or more goals are given up on 24 shots or less. There's also a "Full Jarry" …which means that you probably would have achieved four goals given up on less than 24 SOGs but got pulled early. In the past four starts, Errson has three Jarrys and one full Jarry. What a run! If you're playing Tampa, I think the top two lines are in play here tonight, and even the third line as well if you want to use the Lightning as a filler-type stack. In my single-entry I'm leaning on going to Tampa on this slate, but I really like this nine-gamer we have coming up and could see myself going up to three-max. Regardless, this is a club that I'll want to have some exposure to.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues might be more of an MME play, but they're worth mentioning. There is zero, and I mean, zero that worries me going into Pittsburgh on this slate and either goaltender that the Penguins throw out there are right now bottom five in GSAA and GSAx. The only issue I'm running into with the Blues is both their top two lines in the past three games have about equal output, neither is fully correlated, and the Blues often split their power play time. To me, this is salary driven if you want to get in on some Blues action tonight. If Robert Thomas doesn't fit into your lineup at $5,900, then going down to Dylan Hollaway at $5,100 is in play, the same goes for the wingers. While I'm not over the top on playing St. Louis outside of that one stretch in January where the Dylan Holloway line was Saad – Toews – Hossa circa 2015, I do think there's an opportunity to throw them into a lineup to get unique from playing Edmonton or Florida here on the road in a decent matchup. Again, this is probably more of an MME stack as I can't see single entry getting to St. Louis, but if they end up in your mix, I don't dislike the idea of playing them at all.  

New York Rangers at Minnesota Wild


If you've been following along this season (and many thanks if you have!), you'll know my thoughts on game stacking, even though that's not totally what I'm after here. I just like both sides of this game for different reasons. Starting with the road Rangers…which is a truck stop chain here in the US. Anyhoo, the one thing that's drawing me to them isn't so much what they could do on even strength, it's on the power play, as they'll be going up against the worst PK% in the league in the last thirty days. I tend to give some shine to those clubs that may be in a good PP spot and if that's the Rangers tonight than I do have some interest. Like the Blues above, I can be talked into either of the top two lines, but for me I'd likely lean to the top line of Artemi Panarin ($7,200), Vincent Trocheck ($5,300) and Alexis Lafreniere ($4,400), and if you want to sub out Lafreniere for a different forward on the top power play group that's fine with me. In single-entry, the Rangers might be on the bubble but 3-max and above, they do deserve some consideration. The Wild are right in the middle of the pack in penalties taken, but if New York can draw opportunities on the man advantage, then they might just be in a decent spot for DFS tonight.

For the Wild, my interest is partially eye-test, with the other being line construction. I watched the Rangers last game against the Jets and I'm not sure there's a slower club in transition out there in the NHL right now. The Jets keep things simple on defense, they do that for Connor Hellebuyck as (shocker) their path to victory on most nights is spot on to what it was on Tuesday. Keep things simple on defense, Hellebuyck makes all the stops, get away with a close win. Three hours later, Winnipeg wins at home 2-1. To a degree, Minnesota does some of this as well, but if this club can press, or flat out have the D jump and keep time up in the offensive zone, then Minnesota is in a fantastic spot tonight. Honestly, watching the Rangers reminded myself of trying to play NHL after the first time in a long time…just not making decisions in the defensive end or neutral zone right away, and constantly getting trapped along the wall in the neutral zone. Better yet, the Wild top line of Matt Boldy ($7,100), Mats Zuccarello ($5,200) and Marco Rossi ($4,900) are fully correlated…at least as it stands, you'll need to check that throughout the day to confirm it as we got burned by the Wild on Tuesday, but if that line sticks than I have real interest in Minnesota at home tonight.

Defensemen

Seth Jones might be as high as I'd be willing to go up tonight at $5,700 but can see myself playing defensemen even lower down the list. Noah Hanifin at $5,200 is $500 cheaper than Tuesday and can see myself going right back to him as he's someone that I've targeted often so in the past week or so. If Justin Faulk is running the top power play in St. Louis, then I don't mind him at $4,600, if he's not then I'd probably stay away. Drew Doughty at $4,400 is interesting but I'd probably only play him if I was stacking Los Angeles, I'm not sure as a one-off if I would get to him tonight in my lineup or lineups. Mason Lohrei for Boston is in a decent spot at $4,300 and San Jose is on the slate, so I'm obligated to mention the master of blocks himself, Mario Ferraro ($4,100). The lowest I think I would go on tonight's slate would maybe me Martin Fehervary for the Capitals at $3,100. He has the blocked-shot potential along with the Capitals defensemen remaining pretty active on offense, he's a decent punt option tonight.

Goalies

In net, I would love to get up to Andrei Vasilevskiy at $8,300 but I'd also love a BMW. Sometimes, price is price. My sights tonight are much lower as I don't have much faith in the higher priced goaltenders tonight going off the past couple weeks of hockey. Either St. Louis goaltender is fine at $7,600, I just worry about shot volume but the spot they are in is good enough on the road to give some consideration to. I could maybe…and I mean, maybe get down with Jacob Markstrom at $7,300, he'll likely see some decent volume with Edmonton in town. I actually don't mind either Boston goaltender tonight at $7,200, I say that now at around 10 a.m. Central, get back to me at around 8 tonight. I take it all back, maybe I am spending up for Vasilevskiy tonight?

Good luck tonight everybody!  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter
@ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 17 - 19:04 BUF vs PHI
Apr 17 - 19:04 CBJ vs NYI
Apr 17 - 19:04 NYR vs T.B
Apr 17 - 19:04 OTT vs CAR
Apr 17 - 19:04 PIT vs WSH
Apr 17 - 19:04 TOR vs DET
Apr 17 - 21:04 L.A vs CGY

Starting Goalies

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IVAN DEMIDOV MTL
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
SAM RINZEL CHI
MAX DOMI TOR
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PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
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