Good day to everyone out there in DFSland! Last night I did what has become a recent trend of mine for DFS…got busy at work and rushed a lineup into my DraftKings. Turns out the Kings power play I threw into the ring at the buzzer was not the play, oh well!
Today's slate is a little bit funny with some of the clubs that we have on it, as well as the matchups, but there's a couple decent spots that I think we could take advantage of to try and get into the cash tonight.
Slate Preview
Detroit Red Wings
This morning I took a walk all up and down NaturalStatTrick avenue just to poke around and see what's what around the league, and the one team that kept coming up towards the top of different offensive categories I was looking at was the Wings. That was a little surprising to me, because while I don't watch a ton of Detroit (90's kid who grew up in Chicago…), when I check their box score, they don't usually score more than twice a game. However, some of the expected numbers are alright and we know that this is a decent club on the power play. Just given that there are a couple chalk spots on this slate (one we'll get to later), Detroit might make a nice pivot as an addition to a main stack for tonight. If I get to the Wings, it won't be going all-in on a line or stack, but either squeezing in a two-man or a one-off, and for me just looking to save salary, I'll likely target Alex DeBrincat ($6,700) and Patrick Kane ($6,400), as that duo is $300 less than going for a top-pair that's on PP1. That said, if you do want to either go to the top line and full stack, or even line two, that's fine to get different on this slate. The way that I'm building is if I get to them, I get to them, but if I have another stack that I needs a dance partner then Detroit just might get the call.
St. Louis Blues
We're just going to sit here and not go against the Predators? Not if this lineup has anything to say about it. Juuse Saros went from good underlying numbers on a bad team, to troubling ones while still on a bad team. Not saying St. Louis has been lighting it up offensively, but some of the even strength numbers for them have been good the past month and they're in a decent spot on the road to where I might want to consider them in my single-entry. I'm probably staying clear of the blueline for this game, but for the forward groupings I might look to target the second line of Dylan Holloway ($5,600), Brayden Schenn ($4,700), and Jordan Kyrou ($6,100). I haven't built my lineup yet, but I can already tell what's going to happen when I do. My main stack will be too expensive and will need some sort of pivot, which is where the Blues come into play. With that, even if you want to add say Jake Neighbours ($4,800) to a stack, I think that's fine or if you need so save salary, Oskar Sundqvist down at $3,500 is decent option. Let popular Nashville fall flat, I'll be on the other side of this matchup.
Dallas Stars
In DFS sometimes we either need to fade the chalk or be one with it…I'm leaning the latter on this slate. Let's go over some recent Anaheim stats right quick if we weren't all-in on the Stars already. The Ducks have taken the second most penalties over the past month, and over that time they have the worst PK%. It's not just targeting the power play as well; this is a Ducks club that in the last month (12 games) have had the worst xGA at even strength. With all that said, can I interest anyone in some Dallas? The problem is we know that they're going to be a popular play and when that happens there's two ways to play it and that's to either go all-in on a power play stack or play say the third line as depth because there's a chance that this game gets out of hand early and the Stars begin to staple the top two lines to the bench. For me, I'm considering sprinkling in some Dallas in my lineup where I can, but if I were 3-max or above, I would least have a couple shares of a full-on Dallas PP1 stack, just to get over the field. Usually, I steer clear of very popular spots because either it's me and 500 of my closest friends playing them in a tournament, or if they don't go-off, then I'm cooked. In single-entry, I won't be putting all my eggs in one basket but will be getting to some Dallas where I can.
Defensemen
Top defensemen on the board we have Roman Josi who the Nashville truthers will still probably roster at $6,900 on IR…I'm only sort of kidding. Quinn Hughes at $6,400 and Moritz Seider right below him are both in good spots tonight, Hughes because he's Quinn Hughes and Seider because I can see a world to where I try and add him with either something Detroit or a one-off. Thomas Harley should be considered with all Dallas stacks, you can go down to other Dallas defensemen and believe me, I'm fine with that call, but for a top line stack adding Harley makes the most sense. I do have some interest in Adam Fox at $5,200 going up against the Flames, I like the spot for him and it's not bad for the Rangers either going up against a club that has had trouble scoring in their past ten games. Lane Hutson at $4,400 is fine, don't mind him at all and is a nice pivot tonight. Connor Murphy I'm circling as a "maybe" for the Hawks and that goes for his teammate Alex Vlasic as well. For a $3K defenseman for this slate, targeting Matt Grzelcyk isn't a bad call going out against an Isles club with a bad PK.
Goalies
If you have the salary then getting all the way up to Jake Oettinger at $8,600 is alright but at that price, I think he needs a shutout to justify spending up that much in net. Ilya Sorokin at $7,900 I don't mind but I very much worry about volume coming from Pittsburgh. Either St. Louis goaltender will be in a good matchup at $7,600. I'm sort of concerned with the Blues goaltending having watched their game against the Penguins last week but $7,600 is a decent price to roll the dice. Sam Montembeault going up against the Sens at $7,400 is going to be a popular play, but at the same time I also think it's a decent as he hasn't gone below ten DK points since February 9th…which of course I totally didn't play him against Tampa Bay that night. Nope. Not me. Just below him, I can see myself getting to Dustin Wolf at $7,200, Dan Vladar not so much.
Good luck tonight everybody!
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