Welcome back into the world's most trusted weekly salary cap article, if you want to talk numbers then you've come to the right place. This week we had a couple notable signings take place and if I had to guess, more clubs may also begin putting pen to paper prior to the July 1st deadline.
Jakob Chychrun and the Capitals agree to an eight-yar, $72M contract extension, $9 cap hit per season.
For those new here, first off, welcome! Something that I like to do whenever there's a larger extension is a little equation that helps tell me if it's a "good" contract or one that may age poorly. It's simple, you take the player's age, divide it by two, add the contract years. Any number that is at 21 or below, that's "good", and any number that falls at 22 or above may not age well as that player gets into their later seasons. Important to note in this little exercise is that option years do not count in the total number, both by player as well as organization. I've been doing this for a few seasons now and for the most part I think this model is preforming relatively well, but of course there will be some exceptions either way. For newly extended Jakob Chychrun that number fell at 21.5, so if we go off this model alone, then we can only assume that this will be a "good" contract that may have a tough year or parts of a season, during the last year of this extension come 2032-33.
I really did like this extension for the Capitals. I do think that there's a large group out there that may consider this an overpay but if you've watched any Capitals this season, you'll know that this was well deserved. Chychrun has been an outstanding fit with this club since coming over from the Senators, and this deal solidifies him along this Capitals blueline and from a negotiating standpoint alleviates any pressure to get a deal in place come July 1st.
For fantasy, I can only say that I wish Chychrun was on my club this season. Granted, I like my defense a lot this season, but Chychrun is someone I will be targeting in future drafts as I imagine many of you out there will be doing the same. He currently has 43 points, with 14 of them coming on the power play and that number to me seemed low, as he's active on the man advantage and thought the number could be a smidge higher at 16-18. As for the Washington salary cap, they bought Cap Friendly last summer and haven't missed on a transaction or signing so far this season. I wrote here last season, when comparing Pittsburgh and Washington, that I thought the Capitals' outlook was the brightest of the two and felt that there could be a very good mix of older and younger players on this club's makeup, with talent in each age group. I've been extremely impressed with their front office group and am looking at them going into this offseason in a very advantageous spot financially. They'll have money coming off their salary and should have around $15M in bank to work with, and that would be primarily used to bring in players to supplement what they already have. There's always a "sticker tax", so-to-speak, when that takes place, but on shorter term deals, this team could be just as competitive as they currently are without the burden of uncertainty with their core group.
I do want to also bring up that anytime there's an extension with this much term and AAV that there's always a ripple effect. Rising tide lifts all boats, if Chychrun signed for $72M then that's going to set the market for what could be upcoming and the one name that came to mind right away is Evan Bouchard. I don't want to put that worry in Oilers fans heads as there's plenty of big ticket's that are waiting to be signed in Edmonton, but this is how the market works when it comes to players. Just over the offseason we saw the going rate of first-time signees off an ELC rise, as well as the goaltending market, it only made sense that the blue line was next.
Adin Hill and the Golden Knights agree to a six-year, $37.5M extension, $6.25M cap hit per season
In the NFL, quarterbacks buy their offensive line gifts around Christmas time. I've seen big screen TVs, two golf carts, scooters – you name it. If I'm Adin Hill, I might be taking the Vegas blue line out to a nice dinner here because this contract is a direct correlation to how great the blueliners have preformed in front of him. Taking nothing away, Hill is a Stanley Cup champion goaltender that has been very good this season using his size as an advantage, it just so happens he also has a top-tier defense grouping to help make the job a bit easier. I like this deal for Vegas, but if I'm honest, Vegas is maybe the smartest club we have with Tampa Bay and Colorado also in that conversation. Whatever transaction they make, I'm at the point now where I just nod my head and think that it will all workout for the best interests of the player and club. The Knights probably saved around $2M in spend on this deal as the signings of Linus Ullmark and Jeremey Swayman might have been used as leverage. This is also a smart play if Vegas can replicate what they did two seasons ago or even go on a deep playoff run with Hill being one of the focal points. He hovers around a .910 SV%, but if this extension goes unsigned and left on the table, and all those things come to fruition where Vegas make say a Western Final with Hill playing out of skates, then all of a sudden that number could go up drastically.
For fantasy, it was difficult to forecast how Vegas was going to split time between Hill and Ilya Samsonov but over the past two-months, Hill has been the primary netminder while playing very well over that timeframe. I don't want to sound complacent here, but I just assume from a number on a white board standpoint that Vegas future cap breakdown is going to workout fine. No club had won a Stanley Cup with a $10M AAV player, until they did it with Jack Eichel. I follow the league as close as anyone and couldn't tell you a first-round pick that currently plays on this roster (if that player even exists). They know what they're doing over there, so I standby that this is a good contract now, and throughout it's entirety.
*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com
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