21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2025-03-30

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

1. There are always young players who kind of turn things around in the second half of a season and that helps catapult them forward the following year (and years after). That is no exception this season, so here are a handful of guys who’ve caught my eye (and the stat sheet) since the Four Nations break. Data from Natural Stat Trick and as of the afternoon of Wednesday, March 26th.

Josh Doan (Utah Hockey Club)

The overall production isn’t massive for Doan in these recent 15 games, posting one goal and five assists, but his rate of shot attempts at 5-on-5 is second among Utah forwards (Dylan Guenther is far in front), his rate of individual expected goals is also second (Barrett Hayton slightly ahead), and those two marks are in the 95th percentile and 91st percentile of all regular forwards in the league (at least 125 minutes). Add that to an above-average rate of hits, and this is a guy who has been putting up solid peripheral stats on a per-minute basis.

Of course, the problem moving forward is ice time. As a winger on this roster, he won’t be ahead of Clayton Keller or Dylan Guenther anytime soon, and Nick Schmaltz is likely ahead of him for at least another year. There is a cap to how much ice time he could possibly earn, and that also lowers his potential for top power-play time at some point. All the same, this is a prospect who was producing well in the AHL and is on the rise in the NHL. That is a player to keep an eye on as next season rolls around. (mar27)

2. Will Smith (San Jose Sharks)

The hype in San Jose is around Macklin Celebrini, and that makes a lot of sense when we see how good Celebrini has been as an 18-year-old rookie. It has also overshadowed the season that rookie Will Smith has had. To this point of the season, Smith (2.0) and Matvei Michkov (2.1) are the only rookie forwards to exceed 2.0 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Smith’s primary assist rate at 5-on-5 is 1.07, which leads all rookies, and is tied for 9th in the league among all regular forwards (minimum of 700 minutes). It exceeds names like Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mitch Marner, and Aleksander Barkov.

A lot of that production has come recently. Smith has 22 points in his last 25 games while averaging under 17 minutes a night, and he has been a point-per-game player since the Four Nations break (13 points in 13 games with 2.7 shots per outing). After a very slow start to the season, Smith came alive around Thanksgiving and has not looked back. It will be interesting to dive deeper into this player over the offseason because riding shotgun next to Celebrini and being a super-talented player on top of that could mean a very productive season as soon as next year. (mar27)

3. Philip Broberg (St. Louis Blues)

It is hard to overstate just how good Broberg has been for the Blues. His 53.8% expected goal share at 5-on-5 leads all regular St. Louis defencemen (at least 500 minutes), and his actual goal share leads their blue line as well, sitting at 63.1%. With Broberg on the ice, his team is +17 at 5-on-5 in his 60 games played. That is just remarkable play at even strength.

That also doesn’t even get into how productive he has been. His 1.35 points per 60 minutes at even strength is 25th out of 161 regular defencemen in the league (at least 800 minutes played), which is better than names like Lane Hutson, Thomas Chabot, Noah Hanifin, Noah Dobson, and Mikhail Sergachev. He hasn’t put up huge peripheral totals, but the fact that his 82-game pace is for 37 points in his first full NHL season despite minimal power play time tells us how good the production has really been.

The issue for Broberg is that everyone on this blue line is signed for at least one more season except for Ryan Suter. That includes Torey Krug, depending on if he returns or not. That means Broberg may be in tough for a regular power-play role, or big minutes, anytime soon. However, he is on a little hot streak right now with 10 points in his last 17 games and if he can keep that up for the next few weeks, and into the playoffs? He may just force the coaching staff’s hand. (mar27)

4. The Rat has finally suited up for the Cats. In his Panthers debut on Friday, Brad Marchand registered an assist on the overtime winner with four shots on goal in 16:30 of icetime. Marchand was on an even-strength line with Sam Bennett and Mackie Samoskevich. Marchand was also used on the Panthers’ second power play with rookie Samoskevich remaining on the top power play. A UFA after the season, Marchand’s regular-season career with the Panthers may last just 11 games anyway. (mar29)

Fantasy Take: Marchand Departs Boston, Now a Panther

5. After failing to crack 20 goals or 40 points in a season prior to this season, Ryan Donato is now just two goals shy of reaching 30 goals and just two points shy of reaching 60 points. He also has five goals and two assists over his last three games, moving ahead of Connor Bedard for the Blackhawks' team-scoring lead (58 points to 57 points). Donato’s unexpected jump in points comes in a contract year, so expect his salary to jump from his current $2.0 million cap hit. (mar29)

6. Because Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil are both sidelined, Vancouver’s center depth is being tested – but the replacements are coming through. Pius Suter assisted on three of the Canucks’ goals while logging 24:20 – the second time in three games he has been on the ice for at least 23 minutes. Suter also has three consecutive multipoint games (7 PTS over that span). As a UFA-to-be currently earning $1.6 million per season, first-time 20-goal scorer Suter stands to receive a significant raise next season. And yes, add him if you need a Sunday scoring push (15% Yahoo/23% Fantrax).

Recently recalled from the AHL, Aatu Raty scored a pair of goals on Friday. That gives him goals in back-to-back games. The injuries represent the perfect opportunity for one-time top draft prospect Raty to shine. He has 39 points in 41 games with Abbotsford this season, although he has yet to make anything beyond a short-term impact at the NHL level. He’s only averaging 10-12 minutes per game with no power-play time, so he’s only an add in deeper leagues at the moment. He might be worth paying attention to again in keeper leagues, though (16% Fantrax). (mar29)

7. The big news from Thursday was that the Philadelphia Flyers fired Head Coach John Tortorella. Whether he was fired or whether he stepped down, sources vary, but the end result is the same in that his tenure with Philadelphia has come to an end. I wrote a bit about the change behind the bench yesterday.

There isn’t a whole lot more to add. The team will undoubtedly be searching for a new bench boss this summer and there are some interesting names being bandied about. It is all rumours for now, though, so we can do nothing but wait.

It seems as if the firing jump started the Flyers as they took a 6-4 win at home on Thursday to the Montreal Canadiens in their first game sans Torts. Both Matvei Michkov and Sean Couturier had two goals and an assist with one of Couturier’s goals coming on the power play. Michkov now has 20 points in his last 20 games with 70 shots on goal. This kid is going to be *great* for a long, long time. (mar28)

8. Meanwhile, Lane Hutson had a pair of assists in that game (above) against the Flyers and that makes him the first rookie defenceman with at least 50 assists in 40 years (Chris Chelios was the last to do it, also in a Montreal uniform, back in 1984-85). Those assists also gave 29 even-strength assists, the most for any rookie defenceman since the 2013 lockout. (mar28)

9. The Minnesota Wild got some good news on injured forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, as both players were back on skates in advance of the team's morning skate on Thursday. That they’re skating with three weeks left in the regular season is great news for the team as it marches towards the playoffs. Getting into game shape is another matter, but hopefully things line up for both of them to be all set for the postseason. (mar28)

10. Kevin Korchinski was recalled by the Chicago Blackhawks. With Artyom Levshunov being called up a couple of weeks ago, the future of the Blackhawks is finally here, so let’s see how things go over the final few weeks. (mar28)

11. Sidney Crosby's marker in a 7-2 loss to the Sabres on Thursday guaranteed him a point-per-game season, the 20th consecutive season he’s reached that mark, breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record. It is pretty surreal that he’s done that for 20 years, and yet here we are. (mar28)

12. Entering Saturday action, Matt Duchene was up to 3.54 points per 60 minutes at all strengths this season, just outside the top-10 regular forwards in the league (at least 700 minutes), and situated between Matthew Tkachuk and Mitch Marner. Just an incredible year from him. (mar28)

13. Jakob Chychrun signed a big eight-year extension worth $9 million per season, which sets the Capitals up well for next season, and gives Chychrun the big payday he’s been looking for. The Capitals will have about $11 million for their final three-to-five roster spots

Over the course of the season, we have seen teammate John Carlson‘s TOI numbers drop, and his PP ice time has been halved in Q4 compared to the rest of the season. There’s a world in which Chychrun takes over the top power play full-time in the fall of 2025, but it might be more likely a fall of 2026 occurrence when Carlson is a free agent, and at 36 years old at that point, he would likely end up elsewhere. (mar26)

14. Marc-Andre Fleury made a “revenge” start against his former team last week, with the Golden Knights eventually taking the win because it’s almost impossible for the Wild to create offence without Kirill Kaprizov.

That could have been one of Fleury’s last games as Filip Gustavsson has been stealing the reins with his excellent play, and the Wild are pressing hard to make it into the playoffs after a lackluster stretch of games the last month.

Let’s just take a moment to appreciate what Fleury has done throughout his career of over 1000 games. He’s second all-time in goalie wins, tied for 10th in shutouts, three Stanley Cups, an Olympic Gold, and most of all, seemingly the most beloved teammate ever. Plus, he’s still helping out fantasy teams at 40-years-old. (mar26)

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15. The Cap league rankings were posted last Tuesday, and you can find them here. As for the goalie rankings, they were published on Wednesday here.

16. Back before the 2021 draft, there was a public scout I was having a chat with (and I wish I could remember who it actually was) and I asked a bit of a throwaway question at the end, something along the lines of “which players would you be targeting for fantasy leagues ahead of their consensus ranking?”. While I wish he had put me onto Wyatt Johnston, we can’t always have the diamond in the rough handed to us. Instead, he named two players that I have kept my eye on ever since: Ville Koivunen and Artyon Martino. Koivunen developed well overseas, and has acclimatized very well in the AHL, as nearly a point-per-game player in his first year. He’s perhaps best known for being the main prospect in the Jake Guentzel to Carolina trade, and he should be squarely on fantasy radars as someone that could contribute for the Pens in a full-time role next season.

However, it’s actually Martino that I wanted to mention today, as he just signed his ELC with the Stars after his NCAA season ended a few days ago. His PNHLe out of the USHL in his draft year showed that he had the ultimate upside to be a top-line winger if he developed well. In the four years since at Clarkson University, Martino has slowly upped his scoring rate to the 51 points in 39 games he finished with this year, making him only one of seven players to accomplish the feat this season.

Now he’s likely going to the AHL to see some games with the top team in the Central Division. He isn’t needed yet at the NHL level, and could still use a little seasoning, but that works out well timing-wise, as over the next two years the Stars have five of their top-nine forwards coming up to free agency. That’s on top of Thomas Harley only having two years left. There’s going to be room for Mavrik Bourque and a couple others to make inroads into the big scoring minutes over the next couple years, and I like Martino as one of those still-under-the-radar prospects in dynasty leagues, that could pay some handsome dividends now that most of the wait time is gone. (mar26)

17. I know that I focus a lot more about H2H leagues or just pure point scorers than I do on Roto (Rotisserie) leagues. Maybe that’s something I’ll try to adjust a little, but for now we’ll cover a couple of Roto thoughts to help you close out the year.

For those that don’t know the difference, or the rules of one vs the other, here’s a breakdown on H2H vs Roto.

I think part of why I cover Roto less, is because it feels like there’s less day-to-day management and streaming. Get the best stat accumulators on your team, and then it’s just set-and-forget.

In reality though, there’s much more finesse to Roto, and if you have a smart league that you’re playing with it can be a lot more competitive and interesting. I play in one yearly redraft Roto league with some of the best fantasy hockey opponents I have found, and it’s a slog every year to even finish in the top half.

This year though I had a breakthrough (and a lot of good luck). Early in the year, between Kirill Kaprizov, Cale Makar, Jack Eichel, Lucas Raymond, Nikolas Ehlers, Martin Necas, and others, I had built an enormous lead in the scoring categories (it was something ridiculous along the lines of my roster hitting 600 accumulated points before any other team hit about 480) but was lacking in both peripherals and goaltending. My team was sitting within comfortable reach of a podium slot, bouncing between second and fifth depending on the day. I could have coasted away with points and tried to chip away at the peripherals, but the best approach ended up being to attack where I could gain the most points over the latter two-thirds of the season and end up giving up a lot of my lead in points. (mar26)

18. For anyone that had been waiting for an update on Roman Josi, here it is:

@AlexDaugherety1: Seeing a lot of people asking for an update on Roman Josi. All I can tell you is the team will not provide an official update on Josi until after the season ends. There is zero chance he plays any games the rest of this season. You won’t see him again until 2025-26.

It is really unfortunate for him and the team, though they weren’t going anywhere this season even when he was healthy. (mar25)

19. Thomas Harley reached 30 assists this past week. At time of writing, only he, Quinn Hughes, and Cale Makar had managed at least 15 goals and at least 30 assists in each of the last two seasons. Both Rasmus Dahlin and Evan Bouchard could join the group with two more goals. As far as Harley is concerned, the only thing standing between him and fantasy stardom is a consistent top PP role next season, which he may have earned over the last two months. (mar25)

20. Every week, Andrew Santillo does the ‘Looking Ahead’ column to help fantasy hockey managers with moves to make and teams to target (or not) in the near-term. Without stepping on his toes too much, let’s look at the rest of the season starting from today. We will consider recent deployment trends, favourable (or not) schedules, and changes to lines/power-play units to find some players who can help fantasy managers looking for a final championship push. We will be using both the Schedule Planner and Report Generator from Frozen Tools as well as Natural Stat Trick. (At time of writing:)

Fabian Zetterlund (Ottawa Senators – Winger)

He was mentioned here a couple of weeks ago, but Zetterlund was recently moved to the top line with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle in the loss to Colorado and stayed there for the win over New Jersey. After averaging under 10 minutes a game in his first five games with Ottawa, Zetterlund has averaged 15 minutes over those recent two contests. He has yet to register a point with his new team, but he does have 13 hits and seven blocks in seven games.

The key for Zetterlund is Ottawa’s schedule: With 13 games remaining, the Senators are tied for the most games left, nine of those contests are at home, and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (by opponent points percentage). This week alone sees games against Buffalo, Detroit, Columbus, and Pittsburgh. For those in moderately deep leagues, this is an option. (mar25)

21. Luca Cagnoni (San Jose Sharks – Defence)

There is both good and bad to consider for Cagnoni.

The good: In the two games since being called up from the AHL, Cagnoni has been a fixture of the top PP unit. He has earned nearly two-thirds of the available power-play time in those two games and though the team hasn’t scored yet in that time, they have been generating good shot volume, so things are looking promising.

Though San Jose only has six games in these next two weeks, they are good power-play matchups, specifically. They face Toronto, the New York Rangers, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Edmonton, and Seattle. In calendar 2025, the only team in that mix with a top-10 penalty kill percentage is Los Angeles. After them, the Rangers are closer to the middle of the league, and the other four teams are outside the top-20. It is hard for a team as bad as San Jose to ask for much better PP matchups.

The bad: Early on, the ice time has been very inconsistent. Cagnoni’s first game saw him skate 23:15, which was a team-high mark. In his second game, he skated 15:16, a team-low mark. There is a supermassive black hole-sized gap in fantasy upside for a defenceman skating 15 minutes a game or 23 minutes a game. If he can stay around 19-20, then that’s fine for managers in a pinch, but it’s just very uncertain how they will use him.

Also in the bad-news column, San Jose’s remaining schedule is the seventh-hardest schedule by opponent points percentage. There are a couple soft-ish games over the next two weeks with Anaheim and Seattle, but other than that, all their remaining games are against teams either in a playoff spot or firmly in the playoff race. Cagnoni having top PP minutes is nice, but a tough schedule with uncertain minutes makes him a highly volatile addition. (mar25)

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Have a good week, folks!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 02 - 19:04 CAR vs WSH
Apr 02 - 19:04 NYR vs MIN
Apr 02 - 19:04 TOR vs FLA
Apr 02 - 21:04 CHI vs COL
Apr 02 - 22:04 VAN vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS WSH
RYAN LEONARD WSH
LEO CARLSSON ANA
MATVEI MICHKOV PHI

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ELVIS MERZLIKINS CBJ
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
JEREMY SWAYMAN BOS
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
TRISTAN JARRY PIT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NSH Players
10.8 RYAN O'REILLY LUKE EVANGELISTA MICHAEL BUNTING
7.9 JAKUB VRANA FEDOR SVECHKOV COLE SMITH
5.3 COLE SMITH MICHAEL MCCARRON ZACHARY L'HEUREUX

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