On top of a bunch of college signings making their debuts this week, Oliver Kapanen is joining the Montreal Canadiens as the team enters the final couple weeks of the regular season. Kapanen started the season with the Habs but was sent back to the Swedish Hockey League after a dozen games. He posted 35 points in 36 games in the Swedish league, leading all players age-21 or younger. We will see if he slots into the lineup or needs some practice first, but it seems likely he gets into a game sooner rather than later.

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Some very positive news on injured Minnesota Wild forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek:

Kirill Kaprizov had a positive checkup with his surgeon yesterday and will go into the next phase of his attempted comeback: contact. Date of return still up in the air but John Hynes doesn't anticipate Sunday's game vs. Dallas (1/2)

— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) April 2, 2025

While we have to wait for progressions, avoid setbacks, and get on official timeline, it certainly appears as if both players may be ready for the postseason.

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Another positive update, this time on New Jersey Devils forward Cody Glass:

I asked #NJDevils HC Sheldon Keefe about Cody Glass.

Said it's possible Cody could join the team for practice this week and might be available to play this weekend. If not this weekend, it won't be too far beyond that.

— Kristy Flannery (@InStilettos_NHL) April 2, 2025

We will update when the team gives us more, but that he seems in line to return to the lineup sometime in the next week is good news for the team as they prepare for the playoffs.

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Some good news on Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evgeni Malkin:

Sullivan: Evgeni Malkin will travel on the trip. He and P.O Joseph skated on an individual basis again.

Joona Koppanen was recalled on an emergency basis because a few players are nicked up. Didn't specify which. Did say those players will travel. #Pens

— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) April 2, 2025

The Penguins have three road games in the next four days starting in St. Louis, heading to Dallas, and then finishing in Chicago. Looks for Malkin to get back for at least one of those weekend games at the latest.

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The New York Rangers picked up a huge two points on Wednesday night thanks to a 5-4 overtime win at home to the Minnesota Wild. That win puts the Rangers in a tie for the final Wild Card spot in the East, albeit in one more game played than Montreal.

Artemi Panarin did a lot of the damage for the Rangers, posting a goal, two assists (including on Vincent Trocheck's OT winner), and seven total shots. Those three points give Panarin 82 on the season, his seventh straight season with at least 80 points (excluding the COVID bubble season).

K'Andre Miller tallied a goal, an assist, two shots, two blocks, and three hits in a great multi-cat night. He is up to 101 hits on the season, and needs one more block to crack the 100-block mark, which would be his third straight season of at least 100 blocks and 100 hits.

Chris Kreider and Braden Schneider had the other goals for the Rangers, and Igor Shesterkin stopped 20 of 24 shots for the win.

Marcus Johansson had a goal and two assists (one PP) while Gustav Nyquist and Brock Faber had one of each. That goal gives Faber eight on the season, tying his mark from last year in 10 fewer games played.

Filip Gustavsson gave up five goals on 39 shots to take the loss.

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Toronto also had a big win of their own on Wednesday night, taking a 3-2 regulation win at home to Florida. Those two points give the Maple Leafs 96 on the season, putting them three clear of Tampa Bay and four ahead of Florida for first place in the Atlantic Division. A reminder that the two teams that don't win the division will have to play each other in the first round, so this is an important division title.

Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner each had a goal and an assist while John Tavares had the other tally. The goal from Tavares gives him 36 on the season, making a 40-goal campaign a real possibility. Those two points from Knies, meanwhile, give him 51 points on the campaign, surpassing the 50-point mark in just his second season.

Anthony Stolarz was stellar and stopped 29 of 31 shots for his 17^th win of the campaign, giving him a new career-high that was originally set last season.

Sam Reinhart had a goal and an assist in the loss for the Panthers and Gustav Forsling had the other tally. Reinhart needs three more goals to register his first-ever 40-40 season.

Sergei Bobrovsky took the loss in net, allowing three goals on 26 shots.

Aleksander Barkov was not in the lineup after being banged up on Tuesday night, but it appears as if it's nothing too serious. We will update when more is known, but it may just be a one-game thing.

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Carolina took Washington to the woodshed on Wednesday night, toppling the Capitals by a 5-1 margin. That makes 23 goals against the Capitals in their last five games, two of them against non-playoff teams (Buffalo, Boston), and another against a very short-handed Minnesota roster.

Jackson Blake had a pair of goals for the Capitals, both coming on the power play, while Seth Jarvis tallied his 30^th goal of the season, also on the man advantage. After a very long cold streak, the Hurricanes now have nine power-play goals in 11 games since the Trade Deadline.

Sean Walker and Logan Stankoven had the other tallies, with Stankoven putting up five shots, 12 PIMs (this got ugly at times), and a hit. Stankoven now has three goals in 11 games with Carolina after scoring just five in his previous 44 games with Dallas.

Shayne Gostisbehere had a pair of power-play assists and added two shots, two blocks, and four PIMs to his season totals.

Frederik Andersen was stellar in net, allowing just one goal (to Alex Ovechkin) on 21 shots.

Logan Thompson was pulled after allowing three goals on 12 shots, though the team is saying it was due to an upper-body injury.

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Colorado escaped Chicago with a 3-2 shootout win thanks to a pair of third-period goals from Cale Makar and Martin Necas, the latter of whom scored with a dozen seconds left in the game. Makar assisted on the Necas goal, adding two blocks to his four total shots. Those two points give Makar 87 on the season, so he needs three in his final six games to reach the 90-point mark for the second straight season.

Scott Wedgewood stopped 22 of 24 shots in regulation as well as two of three shots in the shootout for his 11^th win in 16 starts with the Avalanche.

Connor Murphy had a goal and an assist for the Blackhawks and Ilya Mikheyev had the other tally. Mikheyev is now two goals shy of his second career 20-goal season.

Spencer Knight was solid in net, giving up just two goals on 31 shots, but took the loss.

Jonathan Drouin was injured late in the first period (lower-body) and did not return to the game.

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Wednesday night may have been the nail in the coffin of Vancouver's season thanks to a 5-0 loss at home to Seattle. It leaves the Canucks eight points back of a playoff spot with just seven games remaining, so they need a miracle now.

Shane Wright, Chandler Stephenson, Andre Burakovsky, Mikey Eyssimont, and Adam Larsson had the goals for the Kraken. Wright's goal was his 18^th of the season, so he needs two goals over his final six games for a 20-goal campaign. Stephenson's goal was assisted by Burakovsky, giving the latter a multi-point night, and nine points in his last eight games.

Joey Daccord stopped all 24 shots he faced in the win for his 25^th win of the season.

Thatcher Demko gave up four goals on 18 shots to take the loss.

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In these Ramblings a couple of days ago, we looked at teams that either stumbled or thrived down the stretch of recent regular seasons on their way to the playoffs.  Today, let's do something similar and dig through specific players from this 2024-25 campaign. We will look at their performance until the Four Nations break, what they've done since, and what it might tell us about their upside for the playoffs. As usual, data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools unless otherwise indicated, and is as of the afternoon of Wednesday, April 2^nd.

We will start with play-driving at 5-on-5. Using splits of players with at least 400 minutes up until the break and 150 minutes since, which ones have improved or declined the most relative to their team?

Improvements

The largest improvement among forwards by shot attempt share relative to their teammates belongs to a winger on the Montreal Canadiens' top line. The second-largest improvement belongs to one of many breakout performers for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season:

A couple of notes about this change.

The first is that Juraj Slafkovsky is clearly a beneficiary of playing with a great top-line duo in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Slafkovský's on-ice results are considerably worse when playing away from them (41% shot attempt share) than with them (52%).

The second is that the entire top line has been buoyed lately by a great stretch from Lane Hutson. Since the break, Montreal's top line has a 66% shot attempt share with Hutson on the ice and 43% without the rookie defenceman.

With that said, there are still improvements from Slafkovský individually. At 5-on-5, he is responsible for 32.8% of the expected goals-for when he's been on the ice in that most recent stretch, up from 25.9% before the break. That is the difference between a top-60 mark league-wide in a full season or a percentage that ranks outside the top-250 forwards. He has taken a higher share of the shots, has taken a higher share of the quality, and that has pushed him to the top of the Canadiens' forwards by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since the break.

Mathieu Olivier is undoubtedly getting a bit lucky (career 7.8% shooting until this season against 16.7% shooting in this campaign), but he has a positive expected goal share relative to his teammates on the season and has seen a large improvement in play since the break. His 6.5 high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is second only to Boone Jenner and his individual expected goal rate is top-20 among all forwards in the league. Shooting 24.1% helps make Olivier look really good, but he's also had much better underlying results that helps support that.

It is kind of funny that two large improvements come from wingers from two teams fighting for the same playoff spot.

Next up, when looking at the largest improvements by expected goal share relative to teammates, we have a bottom-6 centre and a top-line winger:

Lars Eller is not overly relevant in most playoff fantasy leagues. There will be deep playoff pools and Eller is on the top team in the East, so there are certain formats where he'll be drafted, but he has 15 points in 55 games for Washington, or a 22-point pace in a full season. Washington scores a lot, but his line does not.

Seth Jarvis is the more intriguing name for fantasy pools. He went into Wednesday night's game with six goals, six assists, 35 shots, eight blocks, and nine hits in his last 11 games. Carolina may not look like a juggernaut, but they are very likely locked into a first-round matchup with the New Jersey Devils, and The Devils have been on a big slide in calendar 2025. In fact, since the injury to Jonas Siegenthaler, the Devils have a .500 points percentage, which is tied with the Buffalo Sabres. Carolina is getting a great first-round matchup, so Jarvis may be good for at least two rounds these playoffs. Given his improvement of late, and his role on the team, he's a name that might look better than at first blush.  

Declines

The forward with the largest decline in expected goal share relative to his teammates, and has also seen his goal share decline as the goal-scoring has declined, is from one of the Cup contenders in the West:

Marchment has largely been fine, fantasy-wise, in his last 19 games by posting 13 points. The rub here is that he's been involved in over 81% of the goals scored with him on the ice in that span – his season-long career-high is 77.1% in Florida and he was under 70% in both prior seasons with Dallas. The team's defensive woes have been apparent since the injury to Miro Heiskanen, despite the great goaltending of late from both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith. Marchment has been productive since the team acquired Mikael Granlund, but it'd be nice to see his line clean up some of their underlying issues before the postseason starts.

One defence pair really stood out when looking at the declines in 5-on-5 play and that is Rasmus Sandin and John Carlson from Washington. Both defencemen have seen one of the 10 largest drops by expected goal share relative to teammates, and Sandin has been the largest:

This is a problem for Carlson in particular because coach Spencer Carbery has taken notice: Up until the Four Nations break, Carlson earned 34.6% of the team's even-strength ice time, a number that has declined since the Trade Deadline (34%). That may not seem like a lot, but it is about 20-25 seconds per game, on top of the uncertain top PP role that shifts between he and Jakob Chychrun. Hopefully the next couple of weeks brings a bit more clarity on both the even-strength and power-play fronts.