Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Adam)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 5 (max 1 goalie), H2H league, with scoring as follows: G(4), A(2), SHG(2), SHA(1), +/-(0.5), W(3), S(0.125), GA(-0.25), L(-2) and SO(3). Lineups consists of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5 bench and 2 IR+. No offseason trading is allowed, with the 8 playoff teams going into a lottery to pick 5th to 12th – all with equal odds. As I write this, I currently have a playoff spot clinched, awaiting the fantasy playoffs in weeks 23-25. I am also in win-now mode, attempting a repeat. Here is my lineup as I write this. I've been keeping one spot open for streaming:

C – Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini, Dylan Larkin

RW – Alex Tuch, Troy Terry, Mats Zuccarello

C/RW – JT Miller, Mattew Barzal

LW/RW – Cole Caufield, Valeri Nichushkin, Drake Batherson, Brock Boeser

D – Noah Dobson, Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Thomas Harley, Roman Josi (IR)

G – Ilya Sorokin, MacKenzie Blackwood, Lukas Dostal

Werenski seems like an obvious keep; but can I justify keeping Harley as well? Josi was a keep but appears to be aging out. JT Miller has picked thing up of late; but given his age and playing style, I worry he might be on the decline. Celebrini seems like a special player already, with Fantilli not faring too badly either. Caufield and Larkin are solid, and on teams that are improving. I was unable to trade either of Sorokin or Blackwood, as managers felt they had their goaltending covered, and were leery of the Islanders' lack of scoring and Blackwood’s short sample size in Colorado, so I'm leaning towards keeping no goalies and prioritizing my F and D, with these five: Werenski, Harley, Caufield, and Celebrini, plus one of Fantilli or Larkin being kept. Do you agree with my list? If not, which players would you replace and why?

In a league where 60 players are kept, and you are on the cusp of contending for a title for a second straight season, I do want to give you more deference in terms of not only knowing what it takes to win in your league but also the "right" players to keep. That having been said, I cannot agree with everyone on your list of five, and I'll get into specifics as to why. In general, it's because I feel that when you can keep only five players, you have to lock in the highest floor possible, even if it might mean a lower ceiling. Of course there is room to reach or look ahead; however, you can't afford to hold a player for whom there are too many question marks, or whose "spot" is in doubt.

Werenski is indeed a keep. No one in their right mind would argue with that. I can also get on board with Celebrini, as his SOG and scoring rates as an 18-year-old rookie put him in the company of just two other players, those being Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk, and they became great very early in their careers. Although Celebrini isn't guaranteed to explode in 2025-26, he is checking the boxes that are indicative of truly special talent and, with that, significant fantasy value, making him a definite keep as well.

I do not feel Caufield is a keep. Indeed his scoring pace keeps rising; however, he is not adept on the PP, having received the 13th most PPTOI among all forwards dating back to 2023-24, yet his cumulative PPPt total ranks him way down in a tie for 66th. Compare that to Nick Suzuki, who's received only about 20 minutes more cumulative PP time, ranking him 7th among all forwards, but his PPPt total puts him a far more reasonable 14th, with 50% more PPPts than Caufield. I suppose one could argue things can only get better for Caufield, especially given he's undersized and not yet hit his 400 game breakout threshold. But his PP IPP has gone down every season, from 76.5%, to 62.5%, to 53.8%, to this season a dismal 43.2%. That is not good to see and not encouraging as to what lies ahead. To me, this disqualifies him from keeper consideration given your other options.

Harley had been a point-per-game player since Miro Heiskanen's last game, and with double digit PPPts, but he's slowed of late. He is amply showing he can do as well, if not better than Heinkanen in the same role. The issue is Heiskanen makes more than double what Harley does. Yes, Harley will be an RFA after next season, but when they're both in the line-up, Harley simply is not the same player. Is there a universe where Harley steals Heiskanen's spot? I suppose; but I'd feel a lot better about keeping Harley if I'd seen firsthand evidence of him still doing what he'd been doing with Heiskanen also in the line-up.

In contrast, there is Dobson, who is 100%, without doubt, "the guy" for the Isles. Yes, he's taken a huge step back this season; but his metrics for 2023-24 were reasonable, and if I had to bank on him or Harley being of more value, it would be Dobson. Also, although Jones has laid an egg in Florida, he still will be a prized UFA d-man and will get paid enough to be given the keys to his new team's kingdom. In short, as great as Harley is doing, he cannot be kept over these two. As for Josi, I've covered him in several recent columns, indicating past results show that even d-men who, like Josi, bested the point per game mark more than once between the ages of 30 and 34, tend to hit a wall right at his age, and thereafter are not even 60-point guys. Josi has too much risk for me as compared Dobson, and likely also Jones.

Regarding Fantilli, I feel like he's not enough of a lock to thrive soon enough. There is a real logjam at forward for Columbus; and look no further than Buffalo to see how that can throttle the production of young players. He cannot be a keep because, as I alluded to above, his floor just is not high enough; and unlike Celebrini, he is far from a lock for top line deployment at ES and on the PP.

Larkin is having an off year, which is strange since the Wings are a better team. Perhaps he was as good as he was because he needed to be? Still, he shoots a lot and is an unquestioned #1 center. Sure, he might be like Mark Scheifele, who every year was roughly a point-per-game scorer but rarely did better. The thing is, a point per game floor is pretty darn good. As for Miller, he does come with risk given the style of game he plays; however, I've liked what I've seen since he arrived in New York, and he too will be deployed very favorably. I can't see him dipping below a point-per-game in a full season, at least not yet. Plus he has dual position eligibility, which is an added benefit.

Do you keep a goalie? If your sense is no, then I'd stick with that, as Sorokin might be a world class talent, but he's not being put into position to succeed. The veneer also wore off Blackwood pretty quickly after a strong start. When only 60 players are kept in total, to me that means only the absolute cream of the crop netminders deserve consideration, and these two don't fit the bill.

In sum, Werenski, Dobson, and Celebrini are for sure keepers. The two other spots boil down to Jones, Josi, Miller, and Larkin. I like Miller due to his floor and C/RW eligibility, and Larkin given his "steady eddie" production. Good luck!

Question #2 (from DW)

I'm in a 12 team points only, keep 15 (plus 2 rookies) league where each team's top 8F, 5D, and 2G count for points, with goalie scoring being W = 2, OTL = 1, SHO = 3. I'm not planning to compete for several more years; so knowing that, who would you keep? Also, would it make more sense to try and trade Shesterkin rather than hold him? Here are my keeper options.

F – Matt Boldy, Alex Tuch, Kent Johnson, Matthew Knies, Alexis Lafrenière, Tyson Foerster, Connor Zary, Mavrik Bourque, Trevor Zegras, Cayden Lindstrom, Gabe Perreault, Easton Cowan
D – Jamie Drysdale, Henry Thrun, Denton Mateychuk, Simon Nemec, Zeev Buium, Kevin Korchinski
G – Igor Shesterkin, Thatcher Demko, Connor Ingram

I count 21 players, at least two of whom would qualify as rookies even next season. As such, you're looking at a total of four cuts, assuming no trades are made.

With a total of only 180 non-rookies being kept, and your window being down the road, I think for sure Ingram is a drop. I'd go so far as to say it's not clear he'd even be rosterable this time next season, so no way is he a keep. Demko is tempting to drop. He's never once had even a 60% Quality Start rate, and he's not looked like the same player since returning from his extended injury absence. Still, he may get better over the summer, and he'll be a UFA after 2025-26. Also, Kevin Lankinen is not being paid enough to ensure that Demko will be unable to outplay him, although chances are Lankinen will get a long leash given Demko's UFA-to-be status and Lankinen signed for more seasons. Still, when there only need to be three more drops, it could make sense to "hold and hope" with Demko, not to have him factor into your long-term plans but rather to flip if he somehow regains his form.

Let's look next at the rookies, as I count four: Lindstrom, Perreault, Cowan, and Buium. I can't see a universe where Buium is a drop, as he's thriving in the NCAA and Minnesota is not bursting at the seams with d-men. The other keep probably should be Lindstrom, given his draft pedigree. That then begs the question as to whether Cowan and/or Perreault should be kept in one of the 15 "regular" spots. I'd say Perrault, as although I'm leery of his size, he just get signed, so he is poised to make his mark. But we'll see if either of them needs to be a drop.

Looking at the rest of the skaters, Bourque and Zary are getting to an age where it's a bit of a concern they have not broken out, although both are doing pretty well considering their ice times. The issue is whether they have another gear. I'd put Zary over Bourque, who has to deal with the logjam in Dallas at forward. I figured he'd be dealt at the deadline, yet he's still there. If he remains, I'm unsure he will have an NHL impact, and instead be more of an AHL+ player. Zary, on the other hand, shoots more and has an easier path to success.

Then there's Thrun and Drysdale. I'm not liking what I've seen with Thrun. I thought maybe after Jake Walman was traded he's be able to shine, but he just played his first full game since Walman was dealt, and didn't see a second of PP time, meaning that the Sharks opted to run five forwards on PP1 rather than using Thrun, who also didn't even factor into PP2. As for Drysdale, he's been often injured, and otherwise unremarkable. Still, the Flyers have been unable to find a better option, plus there likely will be motivation to get Drysdale to succeed given the price the team paid to get him. But how long will the team wait before they decide he's not going to be what they hoped? I do like that a new coach will be there next season though.

I'd say the four drops would be Cowan, as I feel you can draft a better prospect, Bourque, who's not in a good spot, Ingram, and either Demko or one of Thrun or Drysdale. If it was me, I'd drop Thrun, as he's already 24 and seems like he is not an NHL caliber player. If you really wanted Cowan though, I'd be okay with him in place of Demko, who frankly looks lost and I wonder if he'll ever be the same. As for Shesterkin, no question he should be traded, but to do so now would be selling very low. Keep him and wait until he regains his form, then ransom him off. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Sam)

I'm in a 12 team, non-keeper, points only league. As we near the end of the season I'm in second place, just 3.5 points from first (93.5 vs. 97). I've practically used up all my remaining games for my skaters, but I have 54 available games for goalies. Right now for goalies I have Filip Gustavsson, Scott Wedgewood, Vitek Vanecek, Dan Vladar and Joel Hofer on my roster. I'm curious on your thoughts, strategy-wise, for the next few weeks.

Should I stream as many goalies as possible, i.e., even beyond the ones I have, hoping to climb in the win column (where I currently sit in 8th place with 54 wins, but am just four wins from 6th and 14 from 2nd) and hope I don't take hit in the GAA and SV% (where I current sit in 6th for each)? Or would you stick with these five only and hope for wins, shutouts and not causing me to get worse in GAA and/or SV% performances (currently in 6th place in both cats)?

It does seem like you are within reach of first, with an ability to make up enough ground in wins if you are strategic about it. To get wins, however, you don't just need guys who'll play, but who'll indeed win when they do. The good news is most of the guys you have now, when they do play, will be put against weaker teams, whether in a B2B or in general.

Also, I think what matters a lot is team. Wedgewood and Vanecek play for very strong teams, giving them a very good chance of winning when they play. With Florida going out and trading for Vanecek, chances are he'll see a decent amount of action so as to give Sergei Bobrovsky, who is one of the oldest goalies in the league and has played a lot of hockey in the past couple of seasons, a break as the season winds down. Wedgewood might see less action, as MacKenzie Blackwood is younger and the Avs might want him to get into a good rhythm.

In Hofer, you have probably the "best" goalie other than Gus; but St. Louis plays Jordan Binnington a lot, and the team is not as good, on paper, as the Avs or Panthers. Vladar is the weak link, being not a great goalie on arguably the worst team of the four. He's the spot I'd look to stream. That alone might not be enough, so I'd consider using Hofer's spot to stream as well, plus perhaps even Wedgewood's. Remember, just because you drop these guys you still can pick them back up later, as chances are other teams either wouldn't benefit from goalie streaming or cannot do so to the extent you can.

In short, I'd go for it. The gains you stand to make in wins are enough to risk dropping in GAA and/or SV%. Also, I'm not sure these are your best bets for maintaining GAA and SV% anyway. Plus, if you do nothing, you probably don't stand a good chance to improve enough to win, and no one wants to finish second without having tried to do whatever they could, within logical reason, to win. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Dobberhockey Forums)

Here's a simple question to ask, but one I'm guessing will not be simple to answer. What is your go to strategy for drafting in a playoff pool?

Let me say at the outset that I've participated in a grand total of one playoff pool; so for certain I'm not the foremost expert in this area. Still, I'll offer my general thoughts.

For some, their initial foray into playoff pool drafting has them approaching it as they would a normal pool. But it does not take long for them to realize that is almost never a winning formula, since with each playoff round the number of teams is cut in half. In theory, a point-per-game player on a team that goes the full seven games in round one, but loses, will net your team fewer points than a player who scores at an average rate of a third or even a quarter of the point per gamer, but if that other player's team reaches the Cup finals.

Of course, who among us has a crystal ball to know which teams will go far? Nearly every season there are several upsets; and by the time things are whittled down to the conference finals, it might well be that half the teams, or even more, are ones that would not have been predicted to make it that far.

The other wrinkle is playoff hockey is a different atmosphere than regular season hockey. Cases in point are players like Tyler Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly, Dustin Brown, David Krejci (twice!) and Evgeni Kuznetsov leading the league in points during the playoffs. Yes, there are also stars who've led the league plenty of times; but what I'm getting at is some players can just catch fire at the right time. Your hope is to pinpoint them by looking at guys riding hot streaks as they ended the regular season, in hopes they carry that momentum into the playoffs.

For me, if I'm picking a player based on how far his team will go, I'd prefer him to be less of a "feast or famine" guy. What I mean by that is if he's a player who can just as easily get five points in 12 games as 15 points in 12 games, I would not prefer him over a player likely to get me right in the middle, namely ten points in 12 games. Still, upside players are worth rostering, provided their floor is not too low.

Something else to consider is players who are highly reliant on PP production. We all know that in the playoffs the refs sometimes will put their whistles in their pockets. Thus, if a large chunk of a player's production stems from PPPts, he could be a risky own.

Also, when it comes to centers, guys who take – and win – a lot of faceoffs are huge. Teams want to be able to control the puck in the opponent's zone or get it out of their own zone; and one of the biggest keys to that is winning the draw. Of course if a center has a linemate to which they're tethered and he takes faceoffs, then that's essentially no different than the center taking them. But guys who take a lot of draws but lose a high percentage of them – they might be looking at fewer minutes.

For goalies, more so than the regular season it's about the team, not the individual. When wins matter, you need the guys who'll win. It sounds simple, but many are lured by goalies who are regular season studs, yet could be gone in round one.

Something else to always consider is guys who might be entering the playoffs not 100% in terms of their health. Come playoff time, it takes a lot more for a player – especially a key player – to not suit up for a game. The issue is teams are secretive about injury details. Still, if you know a player is not 100% going into the playoffs, or even if there is a chance of that being the case, you likely ought to move him down your rankings. Similarly, if a player is now supposedly healthy, but hasn't played much or perhaps even at all immediately prior to the start of the playoffs, then he too might carry more of a risk. Of course there are instances of players gutting through injuries; but by and large, it will hamper them.

Lastly, we come to the big question, which is do you load up on players from one team. Now that "the secret is out" regarding that approach, it is more difficult to actually do. Still, if you're hellbent on it as your way to go, then you want to swing for the fences early, and try to dissuade others from wading into your waters. The strong teams will have a lure to everyone, which might thwart your plans. For me, I go with guys on a team I hope will win at least one round and will be assured to produce, even if they're not top tier guys. Once I have a bunch of those players, I look to deeper guys on teams I feel are good bets to advance, since as I noted above even if a player is not a big producer, him playing twice as many games as a guy who produces twice as well is a wash.

In the end, if I'm being entirely honest, I feel like playoff pools are akin to the NCAA basketball tournament, where it takes as much luck as skill to win. But like the NCAA Tournament, they are a lot of fun, so go into them hoping to enjoy yourself, and if you win then all the better. Good question!

Question #5 (from Cory)

Who are 3-5 forwards, defensemen and goalies you not only think will play better next year, but might not be obvious to most? This would be for points only and W, GAA, SV% and SHO scoring.

Let's get goalies out of the way first, since making predictions for them is akin to throwing darts. The new normal is expect the unexpected. Still, a guy I like is Karel Vejmelka, as he has a vote of confidence in his new contract and seems to have taken positive steps this season. I also feel that Connor Ingram is not a viable threat. I also think that some might forget how well Jakob Markstrom was playing before he got hurt. And the Devils figure to be a top team. Adin Hill had a tough Q1, but since then has been quite good; yet I get the sense he is not being given the credit he deserves. Juuse Saros too is playing much better than his numbers would suggest, and Nashville should improve. A longshot is Leevi Merilainen. With Anton Forsberg a UFA, and Mads Sogaard not stepping up, Merilainen will be the back-up and might push Linus Ullmark for starts.

Turning next to defensemen, I'm huge on Neal Pionk. With Jakub Chychrun signed, it's Pionk and Seth Jones who will be the prize UFAs. And many forget Pionk once had a 25 PPPts season when given a chance to run PP1. I feel like if he goes to Florida or Minnesota, he could have huge numbers, or even very good production for Philly, San Jose, or Chicago. I'm also looking for Jake Sanderson to make a huge leap, except he might be already doing too well to be a hidden gem. But his team 5×5 SH% is miniscule and yet he's still thriving. I'd say 70 points is more likely than not. Speaking of Chychrun, I see him pushing John Carlson entirely aside next season and getting a major scoring boost. Yes, with him there's always injury concerns; but he's likely going to be valued less than he should. People also seem to have gotten off the Vince Dunn train, but to me he outclasses Brandon Montour and will reclaim his "spot" and go back to how he scored in the past two seasons. My sleeper is Mason Lohrei, as although the Bs figure to be much weaker, and Charlie McAvoy is a "the guy" d-man, Lohrei has fared quite well on the PP, such that he could end up manning the top unit, and with that posting 45+ points.

Lastly, the forwards. I really like Jonathan Huberdeau. I think he's mentally past the shock of his inability to adapt in Calgary and now is back to playing very good hockey. I think he can make a run at point per game production next season. Kevin Fiala is too skilled to produce this poorly, so count on a rebound for him. I like Pavel Dorofeyev to make a major leap. He's shooting a ton and looks ready to pop. Cole Perfetti should be the biggest gainer from the all but inevitable departure of Nikolaj Ehlers, and he might become the new Ehlers, meaning he will see some nice gains. And Casey Mittlestadt could thrive if, unlike Elias Lindholm, he meshes with David Pastrnak. Good question!

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I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to admin@dobbersports.com with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.