Welcome to the playoff edition of Analytics Advantage. We are going to be diving into the last four matchups: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators, Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues

Like last time, I will be breaking down the historic numbers, highlighting top performers, and analyzing team strengths and weaknesses.

Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs Florida Panthers (A3)

The Battle of Florida resumes once more. This will be the fourth playoff meeting between these rivals since 2021, with Tampa Bay holding a 2–1 series edge. Most recently, Florida flipped the script in 2023–24, ousting the Lightning in five games with a dominant 4.00 goals per game. Historically, Tampa has had the upper hand, outscoring Florida 51–40 across 15 games, but the tide may finally be turning.

The Lightning enter the matchup as the NHL's highest-scoring team (3.70 GF/G), driven by an elite core of Nikita Kucherov (121 points), Brayden Point (42 goals), and new addition Jake Guentzel. Their power play ranks 5th at 26.1%, while the penalty kill sits 8th at 81.4%. Tampa's defense has quietly held opponents to just 2.68 goals against per game (3rd), supported by heavy minutes from Victor Hedman and a resurgent Andrei Vasilevskiy (.907 SV%).

This team is reminiscent of the championship-winning squads from earlier in the decade and it's backed by a nuclear season from Kucherov. The Lightning have the top-end talent to go all the way, and if Andrei Vasilevskiy gets hot, there may be no stopping them until June. That said, the biggest challenge is staying healthy and consistent, something Tampa will need on their side if they want another deep run.

Florida, on the other hand, continues to thrive through structure and volume. The Panthers draw 10.7 penalty minutes per game (1st), rank 2nd in the league in shot attempts (2588), and allow just 2.79 goals against per game. Their special teams are solid—12th on the power play (23.7%) and 10th on the penalty kill (80.6%), but a 9.5% shooting percentage (28th) has limited their finishing.

Still, this is the kind of team you'd want if you had to slow down the NHL's best offense. With Aleksander Barkov healthy and a physical, veteran blue line coached by Paul Maurice, Florida has the makeup to frustrate Tampa's attack and grind out tough wins. Sergei Bobrovsky remains one of the few goaltenders capable of matching Vasilevskiy stride for stride when he's on top of his game, as we saw last spring.

If this series turns into a goalie duel, it's truly a coin flip. But if Matthew Tkachuk can return and effectively disrupt Tampa's rhythm, the Panthers have a real shot. Either way, this one feels destined to go the distance.

Notable Players to Watch: Tampa Bay Lightning

                •             Nikita Kucherov (77 GP, 37 G, 84 A, 121 PTS, 21:17 TOI) – MVP front-runner; elite vision and shot, leads league in points and drives Tampa's offense.

                •             Brayden Point (76 GP, 42 G, 40 A, 82 PTS, 19:34 TOI) – Dangerous finisher and transition threat; 16 power-play goals and seven game-winners.

                •             Jake Guentzel (79 GP, 41 G, 39 A, 80 PTS, 20:03 TOI) – Offseason pickup who adds scoring punch; 19.0% shooting and five game-winning goals.

                •             Victor Hedman (78 GP, 15 G, 51 A, 66 PTS, 23:10 TOI) – Still one of the best two-way defensemen; key on PP and leads team in TOI.

                •             Andrei Vasilevskiy (63 GP, .921 SV%, 38 W) – Proven playoff performer; trending upward and capable of stealing any game or series.

Notable Players to Watch: Florida Panthers

                •             Sam Reinhart (79 GP, 39 G, 42 A, 81 PTS, 20:30 TOI) – Power-play weapon; 13 PPG and five shorthanded goals with 213 shots.

                •             Aleksander Barkov (67 GP, 20 G, 51 A, 71 PTS, 20:15 TOI) – Elite defensive center; 56.5% on faceoffs and drives play at both ends.

                •             Matthew Tkachuk (52 GP, 22 G, 35 A, 57 PTS, 18:14 TOI) – Emotional leader and top-line disruptor; 11 PPG and 14.1 SH%. *all pending return

                •             Gustav Forsling (80 GP, 11 G, 20 A, 31 PTS, 22:57 TOI) – Underrated all-around blueliner; +33 rating and over 25 minutes per game in March.

                •             Sergei Bobrovsky (54 GP, .905 SV%, 33 W) – Capable of going toe-to-toe with any goalie in the league; can swing a series when locked in.

Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs Ottawa Senators (WC1)

The Battle of Ontario resumes in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, and history has not been kind to Ottawa. Toronto has won all four previous series matchups, outscoring the Senators 57–42 across 24 games. While the Senators have come a long way since those early 2000s showdowns, the pressure remains on them to finally slay their provincial rival.

Toronto once again boasts one of the league's most dangerous offensive units, averaging 3.33 goals per game (7th). Powered by the trio of Auston Matthews (77 points in 66 GP), Mitch Marner (100 points), and William Nylander (84 points), the Leafs have the firepower to overwhelm teams early and often. Their power play ranks 6th at 25.5%, and while their penalty kill sits just 17th (78.0%), they've improved their defensive play down the stretch. Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have helped stabilize the crease, combining for a .905 SV%.

The Leafs' top-end talent is as strong as any in the East, but playoff success has eluded them beyond the first round. With increased contributions from depth scorers like Bobby McMann and a healthy blue line led by Morgan Rielly, Toronto enters with a balanced roster, but one that still carries the pressure of unmet postseason expectations.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has quietly emerged as one of the more intriguing Wild Card teams. The Senators combine depth and youth, led by Tim Stützle (76 points), Brady Tkachuk (55 points in 71 GP), and Drake Batherson (65 points). Their 5-on-5 scoring has improved significantly, and they enter the series ranked 20th in goals per game (2.97) while allowing 2.87 per game (13th). Special teams are a mixed bag, ranking 15th on the power play (22.8%) and 20rd on the penalty kill (77.8%), but the Senators generate a ton of pressure (8th in shot attempts) and play with physicality.

Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot anchor a talented defense corps, and goaltending has stabilized under Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg. Ottawa will need both to be sharp to hold off Toronto's elite shooters.

While the Leafs hold the historical edge, this version of the Senators is more balanced and battle-ready than years past. If Ottawa can win the special teams battle and get timely saves, they may finally flip the script. But if Toronto's stars come out flying, this could be another short series.

Notable Players to Watch: Toronto Maple Leafs

                •             Mitch Marner (80 GP, 27 G, 73 A, 100 PTS, 21:22 TOI) – Dynamic playmaker; 100-point season and strong two-way presence.

                •             William Nylander (81 GP, 45 G, 39 A, 84 PTS, 19:33 TOI) – Primary scorer with a career-high 45 goals; leads team in goals and shots.

                •             Auston Matthews (66 GP, 32 G, 45 A, 77 PTS, 20:33 TOI) – Still one of the NHL's top goal threats; 260 shots and 56.8% faceoff win rate.

                •             John Tavares (74 GP, 38 G, 36 A, 74 PTS, 18:15 TOI) – Veteran center with elite net-front scoring and 58.2% faceoff success.

                •             Morgan Rielly (81 GP, 7 G, 34 A, 41 PTS, 21:23 TOI) – Offensive-minded defenseman logging heavy minutes; key power-play contributor.

Notable Players to Watch: Ottawa Senators

                •             Tim Stützle (81 GP, 23 G, 53 A, 76 PTS, 19:50 TOI) – Offensive leader and puck carrier; 76 points with strong transition play.

                •             Drake Batherson (81 GP, 24 G, 41 A, 65 PTS, 18:07 TOI) – Power-play threat with 12 PPG; excellent distributor on the half wall.

                •             Brady Tkachuk (71 GP, 29 G, 26 A, 55 PTS, 18:21 TOI) – Physical captain; 253 hits and a team-leading 293 shots.

                •             Jake Sanderson (79 GP, 11 G, 44 A, 55 PTS, 24:24 TOI) – Emerging top-pair defenseman; quarterbacks the top unit and skates massive minutes.

                •             Claude Giroux (80 GP, 15 G, 35 A, 50 PTS, 18:16 TOI) – Veteran presence; 61.4% on faceoffs and steady second-line production.

Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs Minnesota Wild (WC1)

The Golden Knights and Wild renew their playoff rivalry for the first time since 2021, when Vegas edged Minnesota in seven games during the first round. That series was a tight-checking, low-scoring battle—just 33 goals combined across seven games—and while both rosters have changed significantly, a similar clash of styles might be on the horizon again.

Vegas enters this series as one of the most complete teams in the league. They average 3.38 goals per game (5th), allow just 2.66 goals against per game (3rd), and own a positive special teams margin thanks to a 29.1% power play (2nd) and a 76.5% penalty kill(24th). With a deep and experienced roster, the Golden Knights are dangerous at both ends of the ice. Jack Eichel (93 points), Tomáš Hertl (61 points), and Mark Stone (67 points in 66 games) lead a balanced offensive group, while Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo drive play from the back end. And between the pipes, Adin Hill (.910 SV%) gives them the confidence to play their structured game without fear of mistakes.

This Vegas team is built for playoff success, they're strong in transition, deep down the middle, and boast a battle-tested core that already knows what it takes to win in the postseason. If they can maintain their special teams advantage and continue suppressing shots (just 26.1 SA/GP), they'll be a tough out.

Minnesota, meanwhile, returns to the playoffs despite battling injuries and inconsistent stretches. They're a lower-event team than in years past, averaging 2.78 goals per game (28th), but they're still solid defensively (14^th, 2.91 GA/G) and have leaned heavily on their stars. Matt Boldy (73 points), Kirill Kaprizov (56 points in 41 games), and Marco Rossi (60 points) carry the offensive load, while Brock Faber logs a team-high 25:32 TOI as a young blue-line workhorse. Joel Eriksson Ek missed time this season but remains a pivotal two-way force down the middle, especially in shutdown situations.

Special teams could be Minnesota's Achilles heel. They rank 19th on the power play (21.1%) and 30th on the penalty kill (72.3%), and their 9.9% shooting percentage is tied for 22nd. However, if Filip Gustavsson (.903 SV%) gets hot and the Wild's forecheck finds traction, they can muddy things up and frustrate Vegas with physical play and layered defense.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between a high-end, structured powerhouse and a grinding, underdog team with enough firepower to keep things interesting. If Kaprizov and Boldy break through early, Minnesota could make this tighter than expected, but Vegas is built to take control.

Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs St. Louis Blues (WC2)

This series marks the first playoff meeting between Winnipeg and St. Louis since 2019, when the Blues eliminated the Jets in six games en route to their Stanley Cup victory. That series was tightly contested, both teams scored 16 goals, but it was St. Louis's structure and goaltending that proved decisive. Fast forward to 2024–25, and Winnipeg enters with its most dominant regular season in over a decade, while the Blues clawed their way into the final Wild Card spot with a resilient campaign.

The Jets finished 1st in goals against per game (2.32) and fourth in goals scored (3.35), pairing a stifling defense with a surprisingly lethal offense. Connor Hellebuyck remains their rock, posting a .925 save percentage with 47 wins in 62 starts. Offensively, the top line of Kyle Connor (41 goals, 97 points), Mark Scheifele (87 points), and Nikolaj Ehlers (Injured, but I expect him back sooner if the Jets are in tight one) leads a balanced attack that also features Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey. The Jets' power play sits atop the NHL at 29.3%, and they draw the third-fewest penalties per game, keeping their structure intact.

St. Louis, meanwhile, relies more on gritty, opportunistic hockey. They average 3.09 goals per game (14th) but rank just 24th in expected goals share and 18th in power-play efficiency (21.2%). Still, the Blues are a veteran team that knows how to compete. Robert Thomas (81 points) and Jordan Kyrou (70 points) drive the offense, while Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk anchor the blue line. Jordan Binnington (.895 SV%) has had an up-and-down season but has proven playoff mettle.

If Winnipeg sticks to its game, defending the middle, capitalizing on the power play, and letting Hellebuyck settle in, this could be a short series. But St. Louis has a knack for timely goals and grinding out close games, so don't count them out. Still, the Jets' depth and structure give them a clear edge entering this matchup.

Notable Players to Watch: Winnipeg Jets

                •             Kyle Connor (81 GP, 41 G, 56 A, 97 PTS, 20:23 TOI) – Dangerous sniper with a 15.5% shooting rate; top-10 leaguewide in total points.

                •             Mark Scheifele (81 GP, 39 G, 48 A, 87 PTS, 20:26 TOI) – Strong two-way center; 3.31 P/60 with a 49.7% faceoff win rate.

                •             Josh Morrissey (79 GP, 14 G, 48 A, 62 PTS, 24:22 TOI) – Mobile blueliner with 1.91 P/60; power-play quarterback.

                •             Connor Hellebuyck (62 GP, 47-12-3, .925 SV%) – Vezina-caliber season; second in the NHL in goals saved above expected.

                •             Gabriel Vilardi (71 GP, 27 G, 34 A, 61 PTS, 18:08 TOI) – Big addition this year; elite finishing and transition play.

Notable Players to Watch: St. Louis Blues

                •             Robert Thomas (70 GP, 21 G, 60 A, 81 PTS, 19:57 TOI) – Team leader in points and faceoffs (54.8% win rate); calm under pressure.

                •             Jordan Kyrou (82 GP, 36 G, 34 A, 70 PTS, 17:29 TOI) – Speedy and creative winger; led team in goals.

                •             Brayden Schenn (82 GP, 18 G, 32 A, 50 PTS, 17:34 TOI) – Veteran presence; 52.3% on draws and plays tough minutes.

                •             Colton Parayko (64 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS, 23:45 TOI) – Heavy minutes and physical edge; 3.05 BLK/GP.

                •             Jordan Binnington (54 GP, .900 SV%) – Needs to recapture playoff form to give St. Louis a shot.

This is going to be an incredible first round of the playoffs. I am so excited to see how teams decide to come into things this final weekend, and who magically resurrects since the salary cap monster has gone away.

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Data Sources: QuantHockey, StatHead ,Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick