With the season wrapping up I wanted to take a moment for what has become an annual tradition over here on Frozen Tool Forensics. We are using our regular season stats to look forward to playoff leagues and see if we can predict some unexpected playoff heroes.

This all started back when I wrote the Wild West column. I saw a column from Rick Roos on playoff heroes. He looked at players who were performing better in the playoffs than in their previous regular season and attempted to figure out if it was predictive of future performance. I decided to go the other way to look at if there was anything in the season data that we could use to predict which players might be poised to be this year's unexpected playoff hero for our playoff pools. It has been going on for several years now, and while certainty isn't a fool proof method, it does give better results than picking a low rostered second- or third-line player at random – but more on the criteria in a minute.

First up, why do we care? Well in most playoff pools managers tend to go deep on a couple of teams that they think will go further in the playoffs, the rationale being a second/third line guy on a team that plays 25 games is going to be better than a top line guy that plays only five. Having a method to prioritize those middle six skaters and finding the diamond in the rough on your selected teams is important.

The below paragraph is an excerpt from that original article and basically sums up what all of the playoff heroes had in common.

"The player was averaging between 0.4 and 0.7 points per game, was shooting around two shots a game, getting somewhere between 1:00 and 2:15 minutes on the power play, and skating between 13:00 and 17:00 minutes of total time on ice. The data points can fluctuate slightly depending on the situation, and players might miss one point by a little, but this is the general target. Perhaps the single most important factor though is that they play for a team that is likely to get at least 17 games during the playoffs."

The idea is that an unexpected hero is a player that is already doing a little something with the opportunity they are being given (to demonstrate some competence, value in the coach's eyes, etc.), but has room for growth. That growth could be either in deployment (increases in power-play time, or total time on ice), or in favorable spikes of luck (team/personal shooting percentage, IPP, etc.) A player who is already spiking a high shooting percentage or getting massive deployment isn't likely to see a sudden, relatively unanticipated increase in value.

The most important factor for overall value though is that the player plays for a team that at least reaches the conference finals. Not only does that idea follow the "more games equal more points idea", but it also gives more opportunities for that breakout which maybe doesn't come until round two. So, first things first. Pick the teams you think are going to make the conference finals and use that to prioritize the list below.

The full list this year comprises 16 players this year so picking your teams is an important exercise. For the purposes of this article, I have looked at various playoff projections and selected the teams who consistently have over a 20% chance of making it to the third round. That brings our total down to 10.

Right off the bat here I am going to flag Connor McMichael and Mason Marchment as borderline candidates. While they might have completely successful playoff performances given their reasonably strong point production, high shooting percentages, and reasonable ice time they are on the top end of player options here. What we are really looking for here are players who have room to grow and might get a consistent bump in deployment, or some puck luck over a shorter sample.

Over the month of April, Cole Perfetti has seen an increase in time on ice and has gotten a role on the top power play. This is exactly the kind of change we are looking for. He has eclipsed 17 minutes a night and almost two and a half minutes on the power play. That has resulted in more than two shots per game… but only three points. He hasn't had a ton of success to date in translating short spurts of good deployment into solid production, so I am a little cautious but this is the kind of thing we are looking for in our deeper playoff drafts.

It is a similar story with Alex Laferriere (except he actually has points), a hot run recently with increased deployment and power-play time, but a whole lot of nothing before that. His shot rates put him on the high end of this crew which is something while you wait around for the points to come. Andrei Kuzmenko's success does make it a little less likely we see a dramatic increase for Laferriere, but he has gotten runs before.

The next group here is all from Carolina. The short of it is I am the least interested in Jack Roslovic. Through March, Taylor Hall was on a nice run getting some looks on the top power play. He has cooled off significantly thus far in April, but is still getting that power-play time. Already since March he has a full extra minute of time on ice compared to his season average and well over two shots per game. There certainly could be some value here. For Jack Roslovic, his poor shot rates and high shooting percentage make puck luck less likely to sustain over the course of the playoffs, and there are only three games this season where he has eclipsed 50% of the team's power-play.

While a change in deployment is certainly possible, I see guys like Hall, Logan Stankoven, and next up Jackson Blake more likely to get the nod. Blake has been given shots throughout the year both on the top line and top power-play, that and his 'room to grow' in his shooting percentage and ice time metrics make him fit this unexpected playoff performer bill much better than Roslovic.

Mackie Samoskevich is maybe one of the most interesting guys on this list. He has been prioritized on the power-play over guys like Carter Verhaeghe in the past and seems to be the go to choice when one of the top guys goes out with injury. Adding Brad Marchand and getting everyone back from injury maybe puts Samoskevich lower down on the pecking order, but the whole point here is unexpected. His season numbers leave room for improvement, and he has had some nice point runs (like 11 points in 15 games through March and the beginning of April) when given the chance.

Ross Colton had one great run to start the season, but ultimately has a very long history now of not getting top deployment even when the lineup is hit with injuries. Like with Roslovic, there are certainly chances for better opportunities that we can't predict, but he is currently low on my interest list for this group.

William Karlsson, on the other hand is much higher. He has been featured here before and done okay with it. In 2024-25 he had decent shot rates and low shooting percentage. Add to that a history of a more prominent role than he played this year, injury prone teammates, and a track record of going on significant point heaters and Karlsson makes for an intriguing playoff add.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

Professional Women's Hockey League

Hockey is For Everyone

Black Girl Hockey Club

Athletes for Hope