Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As has now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a currently active American forward

CLUE #2 – Despite being from America, I played Juniors hockey in Canada, where in each of my three seasons I bested 100 points

CLUE #3 – Despite two of those seasons coming before I was drafted, I was not a first round pick

CLUE #4 – I went directly to the NHL, with no time in the AHL

CLUE #5 – I have been very durable, playing every game in every season except for one

CLUE #6 – The season where I did miss games also happens to have been my one and only, thus far, where I averaged a point per game

CLUE #7 – In that season, plus two others, I averaged over a goal per every other game

CLUE #8 – Despite this success, I was not on the USA's Four Nations team

CLUE #9 – I've played for three teams in my career, two being US, Original Six teams

CLUE #10 – I'm within the top 15 in cumulative SOG among forwards over the past four seasons

CLUE #11 – My current team is my hometown team

CLUE #12 – My initials are A.D.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – In a full dynasty, keep ten, where skater points are five for a goal and three for an assist and 6F, 3D and 1G start, a GM is pretty set on their top eight or nine keepers but is unsure about the last two, and is wondering who would be top two among Quinton Byfield, Nikolaj Ehlers, Ryan Leonard, Mason McTavish, Juraj Slafkovsky, Trevor Zegras, and Zeev Buium.

Obviously Ehlers stands out given that he's several years older than any of the others. Still, he is not that old, plus is about to embark upon unrestricted free agency, where given what he's likely to sign for he should see his deployment improve significantly, which is intriguing considering how well he's done in Winnipeg despite far from ideal usage. It would be wrong to disqualify him based on age alone.

There are a couple who I think can just be disregarded, namely McTavish and Zegras. It is well within reason that one or both turn out quite good, or even great, but they cannot be keeps given the other options.

Leonard and Buium are highly regarded, but unproven. Buium's future seems very bright, with the Wild not having any "the guy" d-men. Of course Minnesota can spend freely this summer for the first time in several seasons, but the market for impactful d-men is shrinking by the day it seems, with Neal Pionk just re-upping with Winnipeg. As such, Buium has a major lure. As for Leonard, he's shined in college hockey, but the Caps have had several younger players step up, such that the path to top tier deployment for Leonard is less certain as it would have seemed as recently as a year ago. I'm not taking Leonard here, while Buium is a likely yes, but not 100%.

That leaves the two big boys in Slaf and Byfield. For what it's worth, dating back to 2000-01 there have been only 30 forwards who are as tall or taller and as heavy or heavier than Byfield who've played 250+ games. And the results have been…..far from great in general. Yes, Tage Thompson is faring well, but he is already having injury issues, which derailed promising careers from other big boys like Nik Antropov and Martin Hanzal. Mats Sundin fits the criteria, but I have a hard time likening him to Byfield given that by this stage of Sundin's career he was already a 100 point scorer. Other than Sundin, just Jason Arnott, Keith Primeau and Blake Wheeler could be seen as true successes, with Wheeler being the only one of the three to become a point-per-game player at any stage of his career. Anthony Mantha has averaged a point-per-every-other-game, but he looks like he's on his way to being a disappointment. The rest were minor to mostly major disappointments, and that includes first round picks like Michael McCarron, Brian Boyle, Michael Rasmussen, Andrei Nazarov, Wade Belak, Dainius Zubrus, Scott Parker, and Joe Colborne. Yes, some of them were never projected to be major scorers, and past results do not dictate future outcomes; however, this underscores the reality of size and draft position not automatically translating to NHL success. Also, although Slaf is not that much smaller, the list of players who are as tall or taller, and as heavy or heavier, and have played 250+ games since the 2000-01 seasons includes a lot more talent, namely Brady Tkachuk, Tom Wilson, Anze Kopitar, Dave Andreychuk, Nathan Horton, Todd Bertuzzi, Chris Kreider, John LeClair, Anders Lee, and some guy named Jaromir Jagr. Given that I think Slaf and Byfield otherwise project to be similar, I'm using this as a tiebreaker to go with Slaf.

Looking back, the contenders are Ehlers, Buium, Slaf and Byfield. If Ehlers signs somewhere that ought to position him for success, he deserves strong consideration notwithstanding his age. Likewise, if Minnesota does not bring in, via signing or trade, any impediments to Buium, he is very enticing. So I'd look to hold those two. But if the Wild grab a big time d-man, then I keep Slaf over Buium. As for Ehlers versus Slaf and Byfield, if Buium is kept, I'd look for an excuse to keep Ehlers, but a universe could exist where he lands in a spot that's not likely to see him thrive, in which case it'd be Slaf over Byfield.

Topic #2 – What is the realistic outlook for Jet Greaves? He's on a 1-way contract next season and has looked decent in 2024-25. Can he find a way to be Columbus' #1, or will the contract or Elvis Merzlikins or the added experience of Daniil Tarasov stand in the way?

What can be said about Merzlikins that hasn't already been said? He just finished his fourth campaign in a row with a GAA over 3.15 and a third of a below .900 SV%, and he's never had a single season with a Quality Start % above 50%. Among the 38 goalies who've played 100+ games dating back to 2022-23, he's second to last in SV%, GAA and shoutouts, and has the lowest percentage of games with a SV% over .900. It is not a pretty picture.

What he does have is a deal that pays him $5.4M per season for two more seasons. Although that is not a large enough sum to make him untouchable, it's a lot to either buy out or bury in the minors. Until now though, the only alternative was Daniil Tarasov, who, frankly, was not really an upgrade, with stats essentially just as bad. As such, Columbus kept trotting out Elvis in hopes he could find a way to turn things around, or, failing that, at least not play so poorly as to shoot his team in the foot.

Enter Greaves. Undrafted, he made his way to the AHL by age 20, and saw his numbers improve in each of his past two seasons. He looked iffy at best in 2023-24, but for 2024-25 he was very strong, with eight of his 11 starts being quality starts and no Really Bad Starts. What is also great to see is he was not just used in "cakewalk" games, as seven of his 11 starts were against teams who made the playoffs. Even better is the fact that he was tapped to start five games in a span of eight days to end the season, winning all five and giving up just four total goals. No question there've been goalies who made strong initial impressions, only to not do well over the long haul once they faced teams again and the scouting reports circulated. Still, Greaves was in net when Columbus' season was on the line, and he shined. That is significant.

What does the future hold? Tarisov is an RFA, and my guess is he will be non-qualified. The beauty of Greaves is he's inked through next season for under $1M. As such, if Merlizkins has to be the back-up, the total spend for the team on their goalies will be only a little over $6M, which is less than many teams have committed to a starter, let alone a starter and back-up. So I'd say that Greaves is poised to have the reins handed to him; and if he fares well, Merzlikins likely will be bought out before 2026-27.

Topic #3 – In a 14 team, keep league a team is keeping Kirill Kaprizov, Nick Suzuki, Ilya Sorokin, and Igor Shesterkin and has to decide between Cole Caufield and Elias Pettersson for the last spot. They're leaning toward Caufield because of the risk factor with EP40 and because Caufield seems to be improving every season and Montrel is a team on the rise. Who should they keep?

One thing not mentioned is the stacking opportunity with Suzuki. But I see stacking as a double edged sword, and riskier the fewer keepers one has. Still, there is no question that Suzuki is improving, having seen his scoring rate rise every season of his career, and Caufield looks to be tethered to Suzuki, which is a pretty nice gig. Indeed, Montreal appears to be poised to get even better, whereas the future is cloudier for Vancouver.

As I noted in my most recent mailbag, Caufield might have a tough time meeting what have been, and remain, high expectations. Notably he's awful on the PP, and getting worse. Although that means there is room for improvement, I'd be open to it being realistic if his PP IPP hadn't been on a continued slide, culminating with it being 44.7% this season, which is very bad. How bad? For this season, Caufield finished 41st among forwards in PPTOI, but his IPP on the PP was not only worse than everyone ahead of him, but worse by near ten percentage points versus the next lowest person, plus a mere five ahead of him in PPTOI had a PP IPP less than 60%. Looking at the 85 instances, dating back to 2000-21, of left wings who scored at or above a point per game pace, just five did so with a PPPt per game pace less than 21 in 82 games, which is Caufield's career best rate – thus far  – from last season. Of those five, three had previously posted point-per-game numbers. The most comparable might be Kevin Fiala, who appears to have peaked, and in doing so barely was a point-per-game player twice.

As for Pettersson, he is fantasy's Jekyll and Hyde, playing either great or lousy, with little room in between. Still, he scored 102 points, and the list of centers dating back to 2000-01 who also scored 100+ points at least once by age 24 consists of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Leon Draisaitl, Eric Staal, Joe Thornton, Connor McDavid, and Auston Matthews. That is pretty fine company in which to find oneself. And although past results do not dictate future outcome, even Staal, who never lived up to his early results, was still a 65-75 point player and twice thereafter was a point per gamer. Meanwhile, Caufield has yet to be a point per game guy, and might not become one given his lack of success on the PP.

Yes, Caufield is a shorter player and not yet at his 400-game breakout threshold. The "book" on him is far from closed, but the lack of PP success seems to not bode well to me, and I feel like he projects to be more Fiala than not. Meanwhile, Pettersson we know has the capability to excel and what he did put him in fine company. I'm rolling the dice with Pettersson.

Topic #4 –Who's the better hold in a points only keeper, Morgan Geekie or Pavel Dorofeyev?

Geekie has been one of the more surprising success stories of 2024-25. This is a player who, at age 23, was left exposed and grabbed by Seattle in their expansion draft, only to be not qualified by them a mere two years later. The Bs grabbed him, and he was a point-per-every-other-game player in 2023-24. Fast forward to this season, and Geekie started very slow, with a mere five points in 19 Q1 games. After that, however, he tallied 52 points in 58 games, finding great chemistry with David Pastrnak. When you look at the depth chart for the Bs at LW, it's not a pretty picture, signifying that Geekie's "spot" likely is not in jeopardy.

Dorofeyev saw nice gains in TOI, both overall and on the PP, responding with a 35 goal season and averaging over three SOG per game. Even better is that despite shooting as a much higher volume, his SH% remained unchanged, suggesting this is sustainable. Beyond that, he had 13 PPGs, which if it sounds like a lot is because it is. Dating back to 2000-01, the list of players who, by Dorofeyev's current age of 24, had at least one season of 13+ PPGs while also averaging 3+ SOG per game, consists of Alex Ovechkin, Jarome Iginla, Ilya Kovalchuk, Pasta, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Robertson, Kirill Kaprizov, Zach Parise, Dany Heatley, Rick Nash, Patrick Kane, Taylor Hall, Nikita Kucherov, Alexander Semin, and Alex DeBrincat. What do all of them have in common? At least one season of point-per-game scoring and at least one of 40+ goals. Most had several seasons of excellence, and even if Dorofeyev only rises to the level of a player like DeBrincat, that would still be pretty solid.

Although I did say that Geekie's "spot" does not seem at risk, the reality is a mere seven of his points were scored without Pasta on the ice. Meanwhile, although Dorofeyev has had his best success alongside Tomas Hertl, in his case it's been all but 13 points, suggest he's not as dependent on any particular player.

In the end, it's closer than I'd have thought. I do like that Geekie appears to have no one who could unseat him alongside David Pastrnak; however, being so dependent on Pasta has to be a concern, and the same cannot be said about Dorofeyev. Both are comparable in terms of TOI overall and on the PP, but Dorofeyev is a PP sniper, making it all but assured he'll remain on PP1. With Geekie not having seen his PP usage spike despite his success, that is a concern. I'm going with Dorofeyev here, but it's quite close.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team league with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, PPG, GWG, PPA, W, GAA, SV%, SHO, the keeper systems calls for keeping a specific number at each position. They are already set on which defensemen they're keeping but are wondering about C, LW, RW, and G. Who should be kept at each position?

C – Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Robert Thomas, Claude Giroux – keep 3
LW – J.T. Miller, Juraj Slafkovsky, Valeri Nichushkin, Mason McTavish – keep 3
RW – Matvei Michkov, Ivan Demidov, Reilly Smith, Mark Stone, Ryan Leonard – keep 3
G – Jeremy Swayman, Yaroslav Askarov, Spencer Knight – keep 2

It looks like the team needs to shed one player at each position, except RW, where there need to be two cuts. To make that determination, first we need to look at the numbers. With 12 teams and 12 skaters (assuming 3D are kept) plus two goalies kept, that is 168 total players. Not a lot, but a decent number. Yes keepers will seemingly comprise the vast majority of each team's roster, so there is a "make or break" aspect to them that doesn't exist in most leagues. To me, this collectively means keepers will indicate if a team has what it takes to compete, which, in turn, will inform as to who should be kept, or at least be a factor.

It is immediately apparent the window for winning for this team is not the here and now. But don't mistake that for a need to automatically keep the youngest players. There is such a thing as too much youth, and if a player might be past peak by the time this team contends he still might be able to fetch a nice return along the way.

With all this in mind, Giroux is the easy drop at center. All his major stats are down, and, at 37, father time is not doing him any favors. Plus, the other three either project to be great, or, in the case of Thomas, already is and should remain so for a number of years.

Left Wing is tougher. Miller's stock has fallen, and as I've cautioned in my columns he is a heavy hitting player on the other side of 30, which can put him at risk for a rapid and pronounced decline. But I like what I've seen of him in New York and I think he has gas left in the tank. Still, these are not the best categories for him, so he's not a sure thing. Slaf though is, as his ceiling remains quite high. Nichushkin is no spring chicken either; and between injuries and off ice issues he's not played more than 65 games in basically a decade. Still, when he does manage to play, the results tend to be very good. He also seems to be more goal focused, which is key in this league. McTavish has quietly had a solid season, including producing at a better than 70-point rate in the second half. This one is tough. I think the difficult cut is Nichushkin, as he misses too much time and one never knows if his off ice and/or injury issues will reach a breaking point from which there will be no return.

Turning to RW, Smith is an easy drop. He's on the tail end of his career, and unlike in the past he did not ignite upon going to a new team. Stone is a Band-Aid-Boy, but plays quite well when he is in the line-up. Michkov and Demidov would not be drops over him for sure, but it's not clear whether it makes more sense to keep Leonard over Stone. As noted above, the good news/bad news situation regarding Leonard is Washington is far better than expected and a lot of young players have stepped up. As such, when he makes his way into the line-up he'll have more talent surrounding him. But he also will have more competition. I think in this case I'm going with Stone, with the idea to try and trade him when he's healthy and hot.

Lastly there's the netminders. This one is not easy either. Whether due to having to transition to being an everyday goalie or the Bs being a worse team, he's struggled. But his contract is so high as to cement him as a #1, period. But is that enough, given the likely trajectory of the Bs? Askarov has excelled at every level, but has looked shaky in the NHL, albeit over a very small sample size. Still, highly touted goalies have less of a track record of success than one would think, as look no further than this list from 2017….yikes! Of course Spender Knight has not set the world on fire either, and was dished to Chicago despite Sergei Bobrovsky being 36 years old and having only one more year on his deal. So basically, the Panthers, who will have a need for goaltending, felt that Knight, on whom they used a 13th overall pick, and just turned 24, was not worth keeping as the heir apparent to Bob. That says a lot, as have Knight’s lackluster stats with the Blackhawks. Although Askarov is not automatically a lock for the level of success most think he'll enjoy, I like him over Knight, who to me is the cut.

Topic #6 – Is Dylan Holloway breaking out, with even better things to come? Or is this either not sustainable or close to his realistic ceiling?

First things first, Holloway is nearing his 200-game breakout threshold, so to see him make a leap is not inherently suspect. I also like that in both Q2 and Q4 he was a point-per-game player. In other words, he rose, then came back to earth a little, then rose again. Once might have been more suspect, but twice is encouraging.

His SOG rate was good, but certainly has room to grow. His SH% wasn't at all unreasonable either. Also, slowly but surely his PP TOI inched up, signifying the team sees him as a major contributor. His 5×5 team SH% was 11.1%, which objectively is high. But it's not crazy high, as many are repeatedly in double digits. Also, his OZ% was 51.4%, and thus more likely to rise than to fall. His secondary assists rate was 40.5%, so no alarm bells there. Most important to me was his 73.3% overall IPP, especially when his IPP on the PP was only 61.9%. For a player who has lined up alongside Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou for most of 2024-25 to have an IPP as high as that means he is a driver of offense and finds a way to factor into scoring, as opposed to being a passenger bolstered by the skill of his linemates.

I'd say right away his 2024-25 pace is not unreasonable. The question is how much higher can he go? It depends on PP time, SOG rate, and other factors. Also, the depth that St. Louis has at the LW position is of at least some concern, as Holloway is far from a lock to keep his spot if he hits a rough patch. Still, him playing as well as he has for the vast majority of the season seems to suggest he will have a pretty long leash. St. Louis being a deep team might mean there won't be lots of ice time to go around, including on the PP. As such, I feel that Holloway might be a long shot to be a consistent point per gamer. But 70-75 points seems doable.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Alex DeBrincat!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.