Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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1. It is all up to Connor Hellebuyck to shake his playoff demons in Game 7 of the Jets-Blues series. On Friday, Hellebuyck was pulled for the third consecutive road game in this series, allowing five goals on 23 shots in two periods before Eric Comrie took over in net for the third period. He is also now the third goalie in NHL history to allow 4+ goals in seven consecutive road games. Beyond the road struggles, five of Hellebuyck’s six games in this series have been really bad starts. Yes, two of the wins were really bad starts because he allowed three goals on fewer than 20 shots in both Games 1 and 5.

The dichotomy of dominant regular-season goalie and disastrous playoff goalie is remarkable – so much so that it doesn’t even seem like we’re talking about the same goalie. The weight of the playoffs seems to be too much for certain goalies to handle, and even elite goalies aren’t immune to that pressure. The ups and downs of Roberto Luongo during his Vancouver years serve as an example of this.

The good news is the Jets return home for Game 7 today (Sunday), where Hellebuyck has one more chance to flip the narrative. (may3)

2. Do you want the truth about injured players following a season full of “upper-body” and “lower-body” doublespeak? Check out year-end press conferences of eliminated teams. According to Lightning GM Julien BriseBois, Victor Hedman played with a broken foot during the playoffs. Despite the broken foot, Hedman recorded three assists in the five-game series with Florida, including two assists in Game 5. Expect Hedman to be ready for training camp.

According to Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning team website, here is the long list of injuries the Bolts were dealing with in addition to Hedman:

– Oliver Bjorkstrand suffered from compartment syndrome, required a house call at 2 a.m. and went to the ER for surgery. (I’ve never heard of compartment syndrome, but here’s a definition of what it is.)
– Anthony Cirelli grade 2 MCL sprain;
– Luke Glendening Right shoulder AC joint separation;
– Yanni Gourde broken finger;
– Brandon Hagel concussion;
– Nikita Kucherov left hand injury;
– Nick Paul left wrist tear;
– Erik Cernak left knee contusion.

BriseBois also confirmed that Jon Cooper would be back with the Bolts next season, throwing cold water on any rumors that he would be fired after three consecutive first-round exits and would then surface elsewhere.

BriseBois also revealed that the Lightning are unlikely to sign Isaac Howard, the team’s top prospect. He said that the team will either trade Howard or take the compensatory pick if Howard signs elsewhere as a free agent. (may3)

3. Happy retirement to beloved goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who has suited up in an NHL uniform for the final time. Fleury’s last game was Game 5, when he took over in net when Filip Gustavsson (illness) exited after the second period. "Flower" will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2028. Here's a quick look at his NHL CV:

• 3 Stanley Cups (2009, 2016, 2017);
• Vezina Trophy (2021);
• 575 regular season wins (2nd all-time);
• 92 playoff wins (4th all-time);
• 1,221 games played (reg season + playoffs) (3rd all-time). (may2)

4. A first-round exit is par for the course for the Wild, as they have now lost nine consecutive postseason series. However, they could be ready to finally make their way out of the mushy middle with the bulk of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts finally coming off the books and a healthier Kirill Kaprizov next season. Part of that cap space will be offset by Brock Faber‘s extension ($8.5 million cap hit) kicking in, but don’t be surprised if the Wild add another piece in free agency. (may2)

5. The Avalanche's Game 6 win to force Game 7 on Saturday, overshadowed an outstanding period by Dallas teammates Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz. The two Finns are the first pair of teammates to record four points in one period in playoff history. Hintz finished the game with two goals and two assists, while Rantanen scored a goal with three assists. The fact that these two were able to dominate this way should bode well for the future, since it is important for the Stars that Rantanen is able to find his form. After joining the Stars, Rantanen finished with 18 points in 20 regular-season games, and he now has eight points in six playoff games. (may2)

(Ed. note: The Stars eliminated the Avalanche in Game 7 on Saturday.)

6. The Senators gave the Leafs a bit of a scare in winning Games 4 and 5, but ultimately the Leafs prevailed after taking a 3-0 series lead. Max Pacioretty scored the eventual game-winning goal with under six minutes left in regulation on Thursday. The goal was Pacioretty’s first since December 20, which spanned 17 regular-season and playoff games. It was also Pacioretty’s first playoff goal since 2021. Pacioretty, not known for dishing out hits, finished Game 6 with seven hits, totalling 23 hits in the four games he appeared in. He'll need to continue bringing his A game physically against a Panthers team that is not known to shy away from body contact in the playoffs. (may2)

7. William Nylander picked up nine points in the six-game series with Ottawa, leading Toronto. The Leafs dodged what would have been a self-inflicted bullet of entering brother Alex Nylander‘s name into the Game 6 lineup card instead of William’s name by mistake. Imagine the panic that would create in Toronto for a must-win game! (may2)

8. The Oilers have now knocked out the Kings in four consecutive postseasons. The streak seemed to be ending after the Kings took a 2-0 lead in this series. It’s probably not that simple, but this series started to turn the Oilers’ way in Game 3 when they tied the game and the Kings made an ill-advised challenge of the game-tying goal. Losing the challenge, the Kings gave up the game-winning goal on the power play. For yet another season, the Kings have to wonder "what if we didn't have to face the Oilers."

At time of writing, Adrian Kempe was tied for second in playoff scoring (10 PTS in 6 GP), while Anze Kopitar was in the top 10 in playoff scoring (9 PTS in 6 GP). Scoring didn’t seem to be a problem for the Kings in this series, as they scored at least three goals in every game with the exception of Game 5. They simply couldn’t handle Edmonton’s high-powered attack.

In this series-clinching game for Edmonton, it only makes sense that Connor led the Oilers in scoring. Yes, Connor Brown. Who were you thinking of? Brown scored an empty-net goal while adding two assists, also finishing with a plus-3. (may2)

9. Carolina, fresh off their elimination of the New Jersey Devils, announced that Taylor Hall is sticking around, signing him to a three-year deal with an AAV under $3.2-million. He has 21 points in 36 games with Carolina, including the playoffs, since the trade from Chicago and has formed a very good middle-six duo with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. He is getting up there in years (turns 34 years old in November) but for three years with that cap hit, he’s being paid as a high-end third line forward. That is just fine for what he brings to the team. (may1)

10. The Washington Capitals became the second team to advance to the second round of the 2025 NHL Playoffs by virtue of their 4-1 win in Game 5 over the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday. This was a series where Montreal showed the potential of their future about one-third of the time, but Washington showed why they are one of the top teams in the East the other two-thirds of the time. (may1)

11. My last four Ramblings have covered preseason projections among forwards and how they actually fared in the 2024-25 regular season. We started with forwards who underperformed their goal-scoring projection, moved to forwards who overperformed, and finished with those whose projection was very close to their actual season’s goal tally. On Tuesday, we started breaking down total point projections, starting with those who underperformed. Today, we are moving to those whose final season point totals greatly exceeded expectations from my preseason projections.  

As usual, season data is from Natural Stat Trick and we are comparing it to my personal projections. We are limiting the sample to forwards who played at least 41 games and were projected for at least 20 points, giving us a sample of 292 attackers. All those players also have their final total extrapolated to 82 games to put everyone on even footing.

Of those 292 forwards, 14 of them produced at least 50% more points than their projection. For example, if they were projected for 40 points in 82 games, they posted at least 60. If they were projected for 50 points, they managed at least 75, and so on. (may1)

A short discussion on a handful of them: 

12. Dylan Holloway (St. Louis Blues)

When the Blues acquired Holloway and Philip Broberg via offer sheet, I was much higher on Broberg’s prospects than Holloway’s. Funny enough, both had excellent seasons, but Holloway was preposterously good.

In Holloway’s two seasons with Edmonton, he posted 1.17 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a genuine fourth-line rate. In his first year with St. Louis, that jumped to 2.32, a genuine first-line rate. More ice time helped his totals, obviously, but it was the playmaking that really made the difference as his assist rate at 5-on-5 (1.43) was more than double what he did back in Edmonton (0.62). If he was part of a competent top PP unit all season, he probably cracks 70 points.

This is just one year but it’s hard to overstate how good Holloway was. Even by play-driving metrics, he was a top-line forward, and if he and Broberg can build off their breakout seasons, they fundamentally change the direction of the St. Louis franchise. (may1)

13. Aliaksei Protas (Washington Capitals)

Perhaps some people thought Holloway could be a 25-goal, 60-point forward this season. I have a lot of doubts anyone realistically thought that Protas would have a 30-goal, 66-point season, which put his 82-game pace over 70 points. Of all breakout players in the league in 2024-25, Protas was at (or near) the top and one of the most unlikely.

This season, Protas finished fourth in the league by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, trailing only David Pastrnak, Sean Monahan, and Nikita Kucherov. Compared to his average across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, Protas improved by 75%. It is truly nuts.

There should be caution taken, though. Here are Protas’s shot numbers at 5-on-5 in 2024-25, compared to his prior two seasons. We are looking at shot attempt rate (iCF/60), individual expected goal rate (ixG/60), rate of shots off high-danger passes (HDShot/60 from AllThreeZones), goals/60, and shooting percentage:

Not a whole lot changed, his rate of shots off HD passes actually declined a fair bit, but he more than tripled his shooting percentage. That should send up all kinds of red flags. He is a genuinely improved player, but anytime a skater triples their shooting percentage, it warrants extra attention. (may1)

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14. As mentioned above, these Ramblings last week started reviewing my preseason projections and what went right or wrong. We looked at forwards whose goal totals underperformed projections, those who scored much more than expected, and attackers with final goal numbers (or pace) very close to the preseason projections.

Today, we’re staying with forwards and looking at who underperformed their projected point totals. We are going to limit the sample to forwards with at least 41 games played and who were projected for at least 20 points, which gives us a sample of 292 forwards. We are also extrapolating games-played totals to an 82-game season so that everyone is on even footing. Season data is from Natural Stat Trick.

The biggest miss had a point total nearly 65% lower than their projected point total, and we had nine forwards between 50-65%. 

What is noticeable immediately is that nine of these are middle-6 forwards who just had bad seasons. These aren’t top-line guys going inside the top 50 picks of a fantasy draft. (apr29)

Let us go through a few of them:

15. Philipp Kurashev (Chicago Blackhawks)

Kurashev is a player I don’t think brings much to the table besides playmaking. But, given the dearth of talent Chicago had, there wasn’t much issue with penciling him in alongside Connor Bedard for most of the season and having a modest improvement on his 2023-24 campaign. That clearly didn’t happen as his role was obliterated (over five minutes per game less than the year prior) and he was often a healthy scratch in calendar 2025. 

This summer will be an interesting one for Chicago, and Kurashev specifically, as he’s an RFA. He also turns 26 years old in October and really hasn’t shown anything at the NHL level besides modest playmaking talent. Maybe he’s given one last chance on a one-year deal, but he also could just be outright released. If he can make some improvements, maybe he can be a Mikael Granlund-type, but that is his upside, and he has a long way to go to even approach that level. (apr29)

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16. The NHL Draft Lottery is now officially scheduled for May 5th . Winning either of the two Lottery jumps this year would be huge for a team, as there are a few players of similar level available to be picked. Any of Matthew Schaefer, Michael Misa, or James Hagens would help change a team's fortunes. 

From a fantasy perspective there isn't much to it, though I do find if you tie the standings of your league to the NHL standings, then it makes for a great automatic and unbiased draft lottery for your keeper leagues. (apr30)

17. Pyotr Kochetkov's lack of consistency was frustrating for the Canes and fantasy managers alike this year. With Frederik Andersen a free agent this summer, some might be going that Kochetkov takes over as the volume starter. However, it's much more likely that Carolina either brings Andersen back or brings in a replacement that can continue to split starts with Kochetkov. Don't be in a rush to get excited about his shorter-term outlook. (apr30)

(Ed. note: The Hurricanes took care of business by signing Frederik Andersen to a one-year, $2.75 million extension, yesterday, Saturday.)

18. At 330 career regular season games, Dawson Mercer is well past his breakout threshold, but I do wonder if there’s another offensive gear that we see next season as his comfort level grows. It won’t be a huge jump into the 70s or anything, but building off his extra scoring and power play usage in Q4 (mainly because Jack Hughes was out) could give him a bump back into the 50s, nearing his previous career-high of 56. (apr30)

19. The Canucks and Rick Tocchet parted ways Tuesday in another show that the higher ups in Vancouver don't seem to have much of a long-term vision. Instead it seems like they're flying by the seat of their pants, uncertain which start player of theirs is going to be around in a few years and as a result uncertain about which to cater to. 

Tocchet heading elsewhere is not good news for any Canucks who played above their norm last year, as it's now more likely they come back down. Luckily there weren't many of them. Really only Kiefer Sherwood and maybe Jake DeBrusk up front that I would expect to drop, while Tyler Myers would be the worry on the back end. (apr30)

20. Also parting ways this week were Mike Sullivan and the Pittsburgh Penguins, but it didn't take long for the New York Rangers to formally announce his hiring later on Friday. The hiring of Sullivan should generally be positive for the fantasy values of Rangers players on the 2025-26 roster. Not only could he provide the typical new coach bump, but he also has the experience of coaching Sidney Crosby and company for a decade in Pittsburgh.

I don’t expect Sullivan to last a full decade with the Rangers, simply because NHL coaches don’t usually stay with one team for that long. The Penguins experienced a dropoff under Sullivan by missing the playoffs for the past three seasons, but he has banked enough equity for another coaching job, especially since he owns two Stanley Cups rings.

Even though bringing in Sullivan boosts the vibes for the Rangers after a disastrous season, there are still question marks lingering. A few that come to mind:

Does power forward Chris Kreider have much left in the tank at age 34? As per Peter Baugh of The Athletic, Kreider was affected by an early-season back injury, an midseason illness that resulted in vertigo, and a hand injury that might require offseason surgery.

To a lesser degree, can Mika Zibanejad reverse two consecutive seasons of declining production? In addition to Zibanejad and Kreider, numerous other Rangers took a step back in the scoring department in 2024-25.

Will Artemi Panarin‘s sexual assault allegation affect him in any way next season?

Will any of the above players be moved by GM Chris Drury during the offseason? (may3)

21. Rick Roos’ Fearless Forecast Recap column was published this week, and his first forecast and review touching on Anze Kopitar‘s age and production had me wanting to dive into what we can expect from some other similarly-aged players.

I was expecting to see more of them tail off in the second half, like we did with Kopitar. However, of the group last season who scored at least 54 points and are now at least 33 years old, outside of Kopitar only three of them saw any notable decline in the second half, and two of which are explained away by changes in circumstance (Mats Zuccarello dropping off with Kirill Kaprizov‘s injury, and Mikael Granlund dropping off after the trade from plum minutes in San Jose to lighter usage in Dallas). That leaves Jonathan Marchessault as the only over-33 player of the higher-scoring group whose point rate notably dropped in the second half. When there’s a singular datapoint that you’re looking at, it’s an exception and not something we’ll learn anything from.

What that means is that the players who are higher-level scorers and still in their mid-30s are able to keep up a pace all season, and still score at solid rates.

Looking at the next group down, those who scored between 40-53 points, there was a much bigger set of the group whose performance went down in the second half. There were still a few players who saw their performance rise, but those were all because of situational changes, such as Taylor Hall getting traded to Carolina and being put in a position to succeed there. Taking out those few names, the number of players who dropped notably compared to those who managed to hold at about their first-half scoring rate was eight to six. That kind of majority is notable with these middle-of-the-lineup players who are getting a little older, as it fits what we would anecdotally expect to see, and be repeatable as well as actionable in future years.

What I’m taking away from this, is that I don’t mind going after a Sidney Crosby or Patrick Kane at the trade deadline in future years, but the likes of Jason Zucker, Evgeni Dadonov, and Anders Lee are the types of older guys who I am going to leave alone. (apr30)

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Have a good week, folks!

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