Ramblings: Lowry Lifts Jets to Round 2; Standouts from Eliminated Teams including Guhle, Goncalves & Hartman (May 5)

Brennan Des

2025-05-05

1.6 seconds (later changed to 2.2). That's all that stood between the Jets and heartbreak at home in Game 7. Fortunately, Winnipeg is one of Canada's coldest cities, so a few Jets had ice in their veins on Sunday night.

Captain Adam Lowry lifted his team to Round 2 with the game-winning goal in double overtime.

Nikolaj Ehlers had struggled for most of the game and in the dying seconds of regulation, after he had just fanned on a shot from the point, he would have faced immense pressure to put the puck on net before time expired. Instead, he had the presence of mind to make a perfect pass to a wide-open Kyle Connor, who found Cole Perfetti in front for the tying tip-in. Ehlers' offensive IQ and shifty skating are going to get him paid this summer – it's just a matter of which team is footing the bill.

Perfetti didn't have much puck luck early in the series but proved himself as a big-game player with two goals when the stakes were highest. The 23-year-old forward finishes Round 1 with five points over seven outings, showcasing impressive offensive ability that could be magnified if he's granted a bigger role next season (which becomes all the more likely if Ehlers leaves).

With his team on the brink of elimination, Kyle Connor showed why he's an elite player in this league, posting three helpers to lead Winnipeg to victory. He finishes Round 1 with 12 points in seven games, putting him in a tie with Mikko Rantanen for the league lead in playoff scoring.

Josh Morrissey left Game 7 after taking a hit in the first period. With Morrissey unavailable, the Jets' second pairing had to eat a lot of minutes as Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg led the game in ice time with 46 and 44 minutes, respectively. Pionk racked up three helpers while Samberg tallied one of his own.

26-year-old Samberg has developed into an asset at both ends of the ice. The Jets had been leaning on him heavily even before Morrissey got injured as Samberg ranked second in average ice time on the team prior to Game 7 – Morrissey was at 23:30 while Samberg was at 22:54. Samberg finishes Round 1 with a respectable three points over seven appearances.

Connor Hellebuyck had a shaky start to this one as he allowed a few soft goals in the first and second. The Jets did an excellent job of protecting him from that point forward as they outshot the Blues 34-13 across the third period and overtime. To his credit, Hellebuyck made the saves he needed to make down the stretch. Although he had a poor series overall, hopefully he's able to build confidence from the second half of Game 7.  

Although his team suffered a disappointing result, Colton Parayko certainly made his mark on this series. He closed out Round 1 with a five-game point streak after tallying an assist on Sunday. His defensive partner Cam Fowler led the Blues with 10 points through seven appearances.

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Playoff performances can sometimes set the stage for future fantasy campaigns, so I thought we'd look at standouts from teams that were eliminated before Sunday.

Kaiden Guhle – Montreal Canadiens

Montreal's top defensive pairing of Lane Hutson and Guhle looked excellent in the playoffs, sporting an impressive 61% share of expected goals in Round 1 against the Capitals. Guhle missed two months of the regular season with a significant injury – a lacerated quad muscle – which may have prevented him from getting the recognition he deserved in fantasy formats. At the young age of 23, he's been very reliable defensively, and gives Hutson more freedom to take chances offensively. Sharing the ice with a dynamic offensive threat like Hutson should help Guhle pick up a few more points next year. Guhle's already a threat in leagues that track peripheral stats, having averaged 3.4 hits and 2.2 blocks a night in 11 games post-injury. I expect a healthy Guhle will see more ice time next season, giving him more opportunity to contribute to a variety of fantasy categories.

Gage Goncalves – Tampa Bay Lightning

The 24-year-old forward had a strong showing this postseason, racking up four points in five appearances while averaging roughly 17 minutes a night. He rode momentum from a solid second half of the regular season, where he put up 18 points over 33 games. It's a promising pattern of offense that extends back to the AHL, where Goncalves has racked up 130 points in 154 games over the past three years. He's an RFA this summer and could have sneaky fantasy potential if he can snag a top-six role next season.

Andrei Kuzmenko – Los Angeles Kings

Although he sputtered out of the postseason with one point in his final four appearances, Kuzmenko had an impressive performance overall, racking up six points in six playoff games. It took him some time to settle in with the Kings, but he really found his groove during the final stretch of the regular season, racking up 17 points in his final 15 appearances of the campaign. He clicked nicely on the LA's AK line, displaying great chemistry with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar at both even-strength and on PP1. Kuzmenko is an unrestricted free agent this summer, but I imagine he's seeking stability in LA after playing for four different teams over the past two years. For the sake of his fantasy value, I'd like to see him re-sign in an environment where we know things work, instead of being thrown into another situation shrouded in uncertainty.

Ryan Hartman – Minnesota Wild

It was a disappointing regular season for Hartman, who paced for just 31 points after finishing with a 50-point pace the last two years, and a 65-point pace the year before that. He bounced back in the postseason though, tallying six points in six appearances. Looking through Hartman's linemates this past regular season, there's a lack of consistency compared to previous years. His most common linemates were Marcus Johansson and Joel Eriksson Ek, but that trio saw just 83 minutes together at even-strength. For perspective, Hartman saw 143 minutes with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello last year, 252 minutes with those same players the year before that, and 642 minutes – again with Zucc and Kaprizov – in 2021-2022. It's no coincidence that Hartman's career-best 65-point campaign came while he was seeing consistent minutes beside two offensive studs.

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This season, coach John Hynes had to shuffle his lines often because Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek missed significant time with injury and the team struggled to score without them. In the playoffs, Hynes eventually found a fit with Zuccarello, Hartman and Marcus Foligno, who could start next year together based on their recent success. Hartman benefitted from centering Kaprizov in previous years, but that's less likely to happen going forward with Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi (pending RFA) in the mix. I wouldn't expect Hartman to reach a 60-point pace next year, but if he can get some consistency beside Zuccarello and Foligno, perhaps he can flirt with a 50-point pace again? He's especially valuable in multicategory leagues as he puts up a decent number of shots and faceoff wins from the wing.  

Claude Giroux – Ottawa Senators

The Senators' top line of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle and Giroux brought the offense for Ottawa this postseason, ranking first and second (tied) in team scoring. Although he may have lost a step, 37-year-old Giroux showed he can still produce offense. He's a UFA this summer but there should be room for him in the top six unless the Sens pursue other free agents, setting the stage for a short-term deal. On one hand, I'm optimistic Giroux can bounce back from this year's underwhelming 50-point pace. He sported an uncharacteristically low 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage of 5.8% beside Tkachuk and Stutzle in the regular season (via NaturalStatTrick). For reference, that same line's conversion rate had been around 8-10% in recent years. On the other hand, though, age-related decline is a real thing. There is a world where Giroux takes on a reduced role next season, leading to a top-six promotion for someone like Fabian Zetterlund (assuming he re-signs too). Whatever the outcome, I imagine Giroux slips in most fantasy drafts after his disappointing regular season, making him a low-risk pick regardless of how things play out.

Jacob Markstrom – New Jersey Devils

Although his team lost in five games, Jacob Markstrom was excellent in Round 1. As I write this, he boasts the second highest goals saved above expected of the playoffs at 5.07 (via EvolvingHockey). Looking back on his first regular season with the Devils, his overall numbers won't jump off the page, but they may have been hindered by an injury. Before suffering an MCL sprain in late January, Markstrom ranked 12th in the NHL with 12.67 goals saved above expected (via EvolvingHockey). However, he struggled post-injury with a GSAx of -4.87. It's also worth noting that top players Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, who missed roughly a quarter of the campaign, were absent for most of that post-injury stretch. A healthy Markstrom, behind a healthy Devils' team, should provide strong fantasy value next year. 

Gabriel Landeskog – Colorado Avalanche

After nearly three years on the shelf, Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog made his triumphant return to the lineup and posted four points over five playoff games. We saw him ease his way back into action, playing 13 minutes in his debut, 14:37 the next game, then 18:17, 19:36, and 20:20. He didn't skate on PP1 in that first game back, but rejoined the top unit from his second appearance onwards. Not only was Landeskog able to play major minutes by the end of the series, but he was incredibly effective when called upon.  He spent most of the postseason beside Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin, with that trio dominating their opponents in scoring chances and expected goals (via NaturalStatTrick). While Landeskog's return to play has been something to marvel at, it's important to recognize that players often get temporary medical interventions in order to perform in the playoffs, and those treatments probably wouldn't be recommended on a consistent basis during the regular season. I'm not saying that's the case with Landeskog here, but it's important to temper our expectations after an impressive first stretch back. Let's hope the knee responds well to this initial stress, and that he's able to continue this excellence in the regular season. However, don't be surprised if it takes him some time to bring this high level of play over a rigorous 82-game campaign.  

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In other news…

Looks like Joel Eriksson Ek will be having surgery following Minnesota's first round exit:

If you enjoyed watching Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, you'll want to tune into the IIHF World Championships for another glance at Canada's Cole Harbour connection. The tournament begins on May 9th.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead!

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