With the 2024-25 season not yet even in the books, it may seem strange to run a poll that is focused on 2025-26; but I figured that many readers don't participate in playoff pools, so the forward-looking content would be appreciated. Plus, how the upcoming UFA class will perform versus expectations is among the most important, and debated, areas in fantasy. Thus, it's time for my annual poll on UFA disappointments. As per usual, I'll start by going over things you need to know before you cast your votes.

To make things "apples to apples" I included just skaters, no goalies. Just consider points only when assessing them, not how they contribute in other categories, since even if not all leagues are points only, points matter in every league, whereas other categories often do not. That brings up another thing, which is how well a player fares in "real life," and even intangibles like leadership, should not matter when casting your votes. For that reason, you won't be seeing players unlikely to be offensively productive enough in comparison to what they stand to be paid, like Ivan Provorov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Dmitri Orlov, to name a few. Instead, I tried to limit the choices to those who figure to have a chance at scoring enough points to justify their likely salary.

How do we know what they'll sign for, let alone with whom? The answer is we don't; but we do have a list of projected UFA salaries here that were updated just a few days ago, which is what we'll settle for since Dobber's own Alexander MacLean has not gathered his usual list. As far as where they will land, for that we do only have rumors and speculation.

Don't just base your votes solely on cost versus scoring rate, but also how a player will likely perform versus the others on the list. In other words, this is relative, meaning it's not just about whether or not they disappoint, but the extent to which they do versus the other choices, again factoring in salary. Note that I didn't include anyone projected on the mid-season list to be paid under $4.0M, as I felt it would be a lot more difficult to disappoint if one is paid below that threshold.

Lastly, this is about performance solely in 2025-26. If you think a UFA figures to be lousy by the time the end of his contract approaches, that shouldn't factor into your decisions. Instead, base your voting on how you think he'll do this upcoming season only.

With all these things in mind, this is a list of 20 UFA to be skaters, in alphabetical order and with their salary projection. Your job is to vote for the five you think will end up being the worst values, and relative to the others. A link to cast your votes will be at the end of the column. 

Jamie Benn ($4.8M)

Could the lifelong Star pull a Mike Modano and somehow end his career with another team? Tough to say, as he has remained productive and checks some important boxes. Still, Dallas has younger players looking to expand their roles. But all this might be a red herring, as in Benn I see someone likely to perform similarly wherever he goes given what he brings to the table as well as what he figures to be paid.

Sam Bennett ($6.6M)

Although he shows flashes of great play, Bennett has not made the leap, and chances are he will not do so if he stays in Florida. On a new team though, with a 1C and PP1 role, maybe he could find another gear. Either way, he seems unlikely to disappoint given what he'll be paid.

Brock Boeser ($8.5M)

It seemed like last season Boeser had connected the dots, as he was at or above a point-per-game pace for most of the campaign, until fading in Q4, in the end barely setting a career best 74 point pace. Then for this season, when he stood to pad his wallet, he had his second worst scoring rate of his career. Given his age and the fact he did pot 40 in 2023-24, he will get paid, perhaps too much to not disappoint.

Brent Burns ($5.3M)

Coming off an age 40 campaign that saw him not even reach 30 points and his TOI down more than four minutes from where it was just three years ago, he does strike me as someone who could be at risk of disappointing. But you never know – in the right setting he could still produce, and I'm not sure I'd want to bet against him.

Jonathan Drouin ($5.0M)

I'd have guessed that Drouin's production rate was lower, yet I think that was due more so to the fact he was in and out of the line-up all season. Let's not forget he was a former third overall pick and seems to fit nicely with the Avs, who I'd consider the frontrunners to re-sign him given that he's a known commodity and they have some top-six spots to fill. And if he's back with the Avs, he stands a great chance of producing well enough to justify his price tag.

Matt Duchene ($7.1M)

The running joke of Duchene only producing well when he was playing for his next paycheck was disproven a couple of times in the last several seasons. Although he did know he'd be a UFA after 2024-25, I'm not as inclined to fear a big drop off, as he seems to have settled into being a very effective second line center. There should be a long list of suitors for him, and a likelihood that he'll be put into as good if not better circumstances given the money he stands to make, which, if this predictor is correct, would be more than double his 2024-25 salary.

Nikolaj Ehlers ($8.1M)

For so many years, poolies have been waiting to see what Ehlers would do if given the deployment he seems to deserve, yet has remained elusive for pretty much his entire career in Winnipeg. We did get a possible preview this season, and it bodes well for him not to disappoint; however, who's to say that with the weight of a higher salary and playing more of a featured role, Ehlers won't falter?

Aaron Ekblad ($7.8M)

One by one the marquee UFA d-men have inked extensions to stay with their current teams, leaving Ekblad far and away the biggest name who remains available. That should only serve to drive up his price, but also ratchet up the pressure and scrutiny. Still, Ekblad showed a couple of seasons ago that he can score if give the keys to PP1; so perhaps him getting a fat raise will poise him to do even better, rather than put him at risk of falling short of expectations.

Claude Giroux ($5.2M)

Now 37, a veteran of over 1200 regular season games, and coming off his worst scoring pace since the very beginning of his career, Giroux still likely will still be paid handsomely due to how many boxes he checks. But if he cannot find a way to turn back father time, or doesn't land on a team that will surround him with potent offensive weapons, it's no longer clear he has enough left in the tank to play to the level he figures to be paid.

Yanni Gourde ($3.8M)

When I see Gourde, I see one of those players who could be plugged into a scoring line as a defensive presence, in which case he should find his way into a fair number of points. If not, then at worst he's a middle-sixer who'll do well if he gets decent ice time and isn't stuck starting all his shifts in the defensive zone.

Mikael Granlund ($5.0M)

Still only 33, Granlund has seemingly rediscovered the fountain of youth, scoring these past two seasons at a rate comparable to what he did in his mid 20s. But much of those points came for a Sharks team who leaned on him quite a bit. Once he arrived in Dallas, his role shrank quite a bit, as did his scoring. This is a tough one, since he won't likely command a high enough salary to guarantee top-tier deployment, in which case he may struggle to produce.

Andrei Kuzmenko ($4.5M)

I'm not sure I can remember a more feast or famine player in recent NHL memory, as Kuzmenko seems to either be ice cold or red hot, with almost no stretches of games in between. If he is able to play very well, even sporadically, that might be plenty reasonable if we're to believe the figure he stands to be paid.

Andrew Mangiapane ($3.8M)

Lost amidst all the success stories in Washington was Mangiapane faltering big time. What surprised me when looking back is that he'd not been that good in his last two seasons in Calgary either. My guess is his even worse play in the second half will drop his actual signing price by a good amount. He also doesn't turn 30 for another full year, so it is realistic to think he can rise from what we've seen these past few seasons.

Brad Marchand ($5.0M)

The big question is will Marchand pull a Keith Tkachuk and return to Boston? Either way, his sharp decline is impossible to miss or ignore. Still, he fired 2.7 SOG per game this season, and the Boston offense did not do him many favors, nor did the fact he almost never shared the ice with David Pastrnak. I wouldn't rule out a rebound from the rat. However, will it be one that makes him worth $5M or more, if indeed that is what he gets paid? 

Mitch Marner ($13.0M)

Still yet to re-sign, there is a universe where Marner goes elsewhere, especially if he's not able to win a Cup this year. Even at his price tag he should have no shortage of suitors. But as we saw from Mikko Rantanen, even the elites of elite players can end up being a square peg trying to fit into a round hole depending on where they land and whether they have chemistry with the players alongside them. And if indeed the amount he gets paid is very, very high, then the threshold to disappoint will be accordingly very, very low.

Brock Nelson ($7.0M)

In many ways, Nelson is Sean Couturier 2.0, in that he was pigeonholed early in his career but then, once given a long look in the top six and on PP1, he thrived. This season though was far from his best. Was it due to father time, or the train wreck that was the Islanders offense? We can't tell for sure; but he did not dazzle in Colorado for what it's worth. He seems among those most at risk for disappointment.

Kyle Palmieri ($5.0M)

After sputtering for two seasons, Palmieri has seen his points rise back and restabilize, albeit at a level below where they used to be. Still, he likely will be given a real chance in the top six and could be a good complimentary player. I'd say this one will depend as much on where he lands as the amount he's paid.

Jack Roslovic ($4.1M)

It seems like a lot longer ago than 2020-21 that Roslovic scored at a 58-point pace in his first season with the Blue Jackets, seemingly boding well for his future. But two teams later, and not having come close to equaling that pace, one has to wonder if Roslovic truly has what it takes to fully connect the dots. Still, he's produced decently despite low ice times, and perhaps if he gets a long look again in the top-six he might surprise, or, failing that, not disappoint.

Reilly Smith ($4.4M)

It used to be that wherever Smith landed, he thrived in his first season, much like Michael Ryder back in the day. But at age 34, and now two seasons removed from being productive, it may be that father time has caught up to the veteran, as one of his poor seasons was on the Pens and he failed to see an uptick in scoring after going back to Vegas at the deadline. In short, I'm not sure the Reilly of today has it in him to play to the level that will be expected of him if indeed he signs for this much.

John Tavares ($7.9M)

Will there be room to ink Tavares if Marner stays in Toronto? Do the Leafs even want him to remain? The former first overall pick rose all the way back to nearly a point per game, albeit with a very high SH%. Even if he does still have point per game potential, is that enough to justify his likely price tag?

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If you haven't already made up your minds, now is the time to go back and land on the five players you feel are most likely to disappoint in 2024-25 given what they stand to be paid and the expectations that will come with their new deals. Remember, it's relative – that is, you want to pick the five biggest disappointments, not necessarily the five who'll score the least, since for some that would be less disappointing than for others. Click here to cast your votes.

[Editor's note: The salaries shown in the poll on the forum have since been updated with the latest published version – none changed drastically enough to greatly alter votes or perception.]

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag column runs next week. To get your questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.