Let's start with what was easily the more entertaining of the two games on Saturday. Just when you thought an ending to regulation couldn't be as dramatic as Cole Perfetti in Game 7 of the first round, Reilly Smith came along in Game 3 and said "hold my beer."

Vegas 4, Edmonton 3 (Oilers lead series 2-1)

Okay, let's go straight to the film.

REILLY SMITH WITH .4 SECONDS LEFT WINS IT FOR VEGAS pic.twitter.com/yhRUHizdh6

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 11, 2025

This did not look like a goal at first. On further review, Smith's shot was tipped in by Leon Draisaitl and hit the camera inside the net. Only the green light came on, so this was easy to miss. What is it with these endings in this season's playoffs? Yet another reason why the entertainment value of the Stanley Cup playoffs is unmatched.  

Here's the still shot of the goal. You can see the puck cross the vertical plane (to use a football term). What a gaffe by Draisaitl, but Stuart Skinner didn't help matters by coming out of his net to play Smith.

INSANITY pic.twitter.com/t9vV52PfjV

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 11, 2025

Smith's miracle goal was his second of the game and his third of the playoffs. Smith's linemate and fellow "original misfit" William Karlsson scored a goal and added a well-earned assist by carrying the puck in on his own before Smith cashed in. Both finished with a plus-3.

Nicolas Roy, who avoided suspension for this game, scored Vegas's other goal.

Corey Perry scored the first two goals of the game to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead, but the Golden Knights replied with a pair of their own to tie the game at two before the end of the first period. The nearly-40 Perry is tied with Draisaitl for the Oilers' team lead in playoff goals with five each.

Connor McDavid scored the Oilers' other goal, tying the game with just over three minutes remaining in regulation.

Before the game, the story was about the Oilers' No. 2 goalie being unable to play due to injury, with the Oilers having to turn to their No. 1 goalie instead! Calvin Pickard had started the previous six games for the Oilers after Skinner had struggled in the first two games. Yet due to Pickard's undisclosed injury, Skinner was back between the pipes for Game 3. Skinner allowed four goals on 24 shots, including the buzzer beater. According to Frozen Tools, Skinner now has really bad starts in each of his three games. As counterintuitive as it may sound, journeyman backup Pickard seems like the better option for the Oilers at the moment, but his status for Game 4 is unknown.

It wasn't all good for Vegas in Game 3, as captain Mark Stone left the game with an upper-body injury. Stone appeared to be injured on this play:

Correcting erroneous info: this was not on Stone's last shift…he played three after this one, as @JesseGranger_ mentioned pic.twitter.com/s0GDEWF3QI

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) May 11, 2025

After the game, coach Bruce Cassidy said that Stone is currently day-to-day.

Carolina 4, Washington 0 (Hurricanes lead series 2-1)

Frederik Andersen made 21 saves in earning his first shutout of the playoffs. Aside from missing about a game and a half due to an undisclosed injury, Andersen has been stellar in this season's playoffs with a 5-1-1 record with a 1.32 GAA and .940 SV%. Recently signed to a one-year extension, Andersen could continue to be very effective in splitting starts with Pyotr Kochetkov next season. But for now, the net is his.

The opening goal in this game wasn't scored until over halfway through the second period. Andrei Svechnikov, who scored that opening goal, now leads the Hurricanes with six goals in the playoffs. Svechnikov also had three shots and five hits in this game, leading the Canes in the playoffs with 29 shots and third on the Canes with 30 hits. His ability to fill multiple categories makes him appealing in bangers leagues.

The Canes' second goal was a power-play marker from Jack Roslovic, who finished with an assist as well. Eric Robinson and Jackson Blake scored the Hurricanes' other goals.

With an assist in Game 3, Seth Jarvis has seven points over his last seven games.

Logan Thompson allowed four goals on 28 shots, ending his run of four consecutive quality starts.

Alex Ovechkin is officially on the Frozen Tools Cold List, as he is without a point in this series. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jakob Chychrun are in the exact same boat. The Capitals have scored just four goals in this entire three-game series, so finding a way to beat Andersen and counter the Canes' strong puck possession game will be critical for success in Game 4.

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Yesterday I discussed four players from my various fantasy teams that exceeded their preseason expectations during the 2024-25 season. Today I'll flip it around with players that performed below expectations on my fantasy teams – in other words, players I expected more from. These choices are generally based on point projections versus actual performance.

Steven Stamkos

I can remember another Dobber writer (I think Brennan) suggesting not to draft players changing teams in the offseason, as they may need a season to adjust to their new surroundings. Hopefully that is the case for Stamkos, whose first season in Nashville was disastrous. Although his fourth-quarter production (17 points in 21 games) was an improvement over his first-quarter production (11 points in 23 games), his season-by-season point total fell by nearly 30 points from his final season in Tampa Bay. A minus-36 ranking was also embarrassing.

In order to rebound, Stamkos' shot total will need to increase. Taking at least three shots per game in his last three seasons with the Lightning, Stamkos was held to just over two shots per game while maintaining a similar shooting percentage. The chances of Nashville as a team improving in 2025-26 seem good, but they simply may not generate the number of quality scoring chances for Stamkos to capitalize on. Stamkos should be drafted at a discount next season.

Connor Bedard

Bedard's overall point total improved slightly (67 PTS) from his rookie season (61 PTS), but his point-per-game average fell due to more games played (from 0.9 PTS/GP to 0.82 PTS/GP). Bedard also equaled Stamkos in plus-minus (-36) playing for a team that struggled even more.

We probably expected more from Bedard by now, given how much he dominated the WHL. The easy narrative would be to assume that he won't meet the hype at the NHL level, but don't forget that he is also still only 19 years of age. Surrounding Bedard with young talent instead of replacement-level players will also be critical. It may also be a matter of being patient. Nathan MacKinnon did not reach superstar level until his fifth NHL season. Bedard may be looking at a similar curve.

Brent Burns

At the opposite end of the age spectrum is Burns, who may be at the end of the NHL road. Burns has just celebrated his 40^th birthday and will be a free agent as soon as the Hurricanes' season ends. After some solid seasons into his late 30s, Burns finished the season with just 29 points in 82 games. Playing on the Canes' second-unit power play, Burns was held to just three power-play points all season. I wasn't expecting the world from Burns at his advanced age, but I thought another 40-point season was possible.

If Burns still wants to play, he should get signed somewhere. Burns is still extremely durable, as he's the league's current ironman with 925 consecutive games played. He could also become a bit more appealing in cap leagues (which is where I have him rostered), as he should sign for significantly less than his current $4 million cap hit. If he does play, then he should be a late-round flier at best, as his days of multicategory dominance have passed.

Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin had the highest ADP of any goalie in Yahoo (17.1), but his season numbers (2.86 GAA, .904 SV%) were better suited for a slightly above average goalie. Goalie numbers in fantasy are often tied to team performance, and the fact is that Shesterkin was a victim of the Rangers' disappointing season. His 27 wins wasn't even in the top 10, even though he was one of five goalies to play at least 60 games.

Despite those numbers, Shesterkin's 19.00 GSAx (goals saved above expected) was in the top 10 of the league. Comparable GSAx goalies had better ratios, suggesting that the Rangers were losing in spite of Shesterkin instead of because of him. If the Rangers rebound under new coach Mike Sullivan and make the playoffs, Shesterkin should be in line for a better 2025-26.

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