No matter how dialed-in we are heading into drafts, pouring over rankings, building out our own projections, and locking in sleepers, every season delivers a handful of breakout performances that catch everyone off guard. We are talking about players who did not just beat expectations, they shattered them. Some came out of the late rounds and returned first-round value, others went from waiver wire afterthoughts to lineup staples after a heater that never cooled off.

I dug into NHL.com’s fantasy preseason point projections for the 2024–25 season (available for both forwards and defensemen) totalling a pool of over 260 skaters. From that group, these 10 players under the age of 25 stood out as the biggest winners, some of them outperforming their projected totals by 20 points or more, and some were not even on the list.

Enjoy!

10. Will Cuylle – New York Rangers

       Projection: Not Ranked

       Point Total: 45 points

The Rangers had their fair share of ups and downs this season, but Cuylle was a clear bright spot. He carved out a consistent role in the bottom-six, bringing physicality, energy, and the flexibility to slide up the lineup when needed. Cuylle topped 152 hits and chipped in 45 points which is an impressive return for a player who came into the year with limited fantasy buzz. His growth in just his second full NHL season was easy to spot. He is not a go-to scorer, but his effort level, improving instincts, and multi-cat appeal made him a sneaky strong waiver add in banger formats. With steady middle-six usage next season, 50+ points is not out of the question.

9. Dylan Guenther – Utah Mammoth

    Projection: 52 points

    Point Total: 60 points

Dylan Guenther may not have been a shock breakout, but he still exceeded expectations, posting 60 points in 70 games, good for a 70-point pace. He locked into Utah's top line and PP1, producing consistently alongside Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley. This trio led the charge offensively and looks like a long-term problem for opposing defenses. Guenther tallied 29 power-play points, 206 shots, and carried a solid 13.1 % shooting percentage, metrics that suggest room to grow, not regress. He is already pushing into top-150 draft fantasy territory with clear 70+ point upside. If Utah continues trending upward, Guenther's value rises with it. The breakout is real, and so is the role.

8.  Jackson LaCombe – Anaheim Ducks

     Projection: Not Ranked

     Point Total:  43 points

We all looked at the Anaheim Ducks defensive core expecting to see Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger take those next steps in their offensive game. Meanwhile, a hidden gem on the blue line, LaCombe impressed with 43 points and consistent development. Playing on an Anaheim team brimming with young talent, he filled a vital puck-moving role and often contributed during even-strength play, notching 14 goals. He was not always the primary PP quarterback, but still managed to carve out offense with smart decision-making and clean zone exits. He is a savvy late round pick up with decent upside.

7.  Matt Coronato – Calgary Flames

     Projection: Not Ranked

     Point Total:  47 points

It looks like Coronato has transitioned effectively to the NHL with the Calgary Flames. His 47 points (on a 50-point pace) came with improved underlying metrics, especially shot generation. What really stands out is how his power-play presence expanded. Coronato saw over 2:29 in PPTOI per game and was on the ice for 51.6% of the team's power plays, up from just 32.9% the year prior. That translated to 17 power-play points, a massive jump from his one lonely PPP last year. Did I mention that he has only played 100 games into his NHL career? Coronato looks like a solid top-six player with top power-play usage going forward.

6.  Connor McMichael – Washington Capitals

      Projection: Not Ranked

      Point Total:  57 points

Washington added a lot of players during the offseason, and they made sure to inject some youth into the mix. Connor McMichael was one of the youngsters in the lineup and he made the most of his shot this season. He climbed his way up depth chart despite being bounced between top- and bottom-six roles. He forced the coaching staff's hand with his gameplay, earning more minutes and capitalizing with a 57-point breakout. That kind of production, paired with growing confidence, puts him firmly in must-draft territory for next season. There's room for more if he sticks in a top-six role alongside Washington's emerging core. If Ovi's still around? That just makes McMichael even more appealing.

5.  Matthew Knies – Toronto Maple Leafs

      Projection: 43 points

      Point Total: 58 points

There was no sophomore slump for Matthew Knies this season, finishing with 58 points and pacing for 61, well above his modest 43-point projection. He earned steady top-six minutes on a Leafs squad that leaned on his physicality, energy, and growing offensive touch. Knies found real chemistry within the top-six, carving out a consistent net-front role and generating quality chances. His 152 hits and rising shot volume also boosted his multi-cat value, making him especially appealing in banger leagues. Set to hit RFA status this summer, he is due for a payday and fantasy managers should take note. Knies is trending toward reliable top-six production with room for more.

4.  Dylan Holloway – St. Louis Blues

      Projection: 45 points

      Point Total: 63 points

After years of false starts in Edmonton, Dylan Holloway finally found his stride, just not with the Oilers. A move to St. Louis opened the door to a top-six role, and he ran with it. The 23-year-old posted 63 points (26G, 37A) in 77 games, a massive jump from back-to-back nine-point seasons. His 0.82 points-per-game pace came from increased minutes, confidence, and finally some consistent linemates. Even without time alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, Holloway's speed and forechecking turned into actual production, showing real finishing touch. Now looking comfortable in the Blues' top six, there is no reason to think this breakout cannot stick. If you are still skeptical—don't be.

3.  Lane Hutson – Montreal Canadians

      Projection: 38 points

      Point Total:  66 points

Lane Hutson delivered one of the most electric rookies seasons we have seen from a blueliner in years, racking up 66 points and making quick work of any size concerns. He displaced Mike Matheson fairly quickly from PP1 and notched 26 power-play points, flashing elite offensive instincts despite averaging just 1.1 shots per game and a 6.7% shooting rate. While not a volume shooter, his 58.3% secondary assist rate speaks to his strength as a play initiator and puck mover. Hutson's ability to create high-danger looks and drive offense from the point makes him a must-roster fantasy defenseman, if he's not already locked into that tier for you, it's time.

2.  Aliaksei Protas – Washington Capitals

      Projection: NR

      Point Total: 66 points

Aliaksei Protas was one of the season's biggest fantasy surprises, racking up 30 goals and 36 assists in 76 games, nearly all at even strength. He logged just a single power-play point, making his breakout even more impressive. With his size, touch, and versatility, Protas thrived in a reshuffled Capitals lineup, contributing in multiple roles. Yes, the 21.4% shooting percentage screams regression, but if he gets even a sniff of PP time next year, the drop-off might not be as steep. Most fantasy managers hesitated, waiting for the bottom to fall out, but it never did. Protas forced his way into relevance and looks locked into a meaningful role moving forward.

1. Kirill Marchenko – Columbus Blue Jackets

       Projection: 47 Points

       Point Total: 74 points

Kirill Marchenko crushed his 47-point projection with a 74-point breakout, emerging as a go-to offensive weapon in Columbus, something few saw coming – at least this season. His ice time jumped to 18:35, and he led the team with a 67.7% power-play share, seeing over 2.5 minutes per game on the man advantage. High shot volume, top-unit usage, and clear chemistry with the Jackets' young core all point to this being more than just a one-off. Marchenko should now be firmly in the conversation as a draftable top-line winger with 30-goal, 70-point upside. As Columbus continues to build around its emerging stars, Marchenko's role and production should only keep trending up.

Bonus: Kent Johnson – Columbus Blue Jackets

       Projection: Not Ranked

       Point Total: 57 points

After a rough, injury-riddled 2023–24, Kent Johnson went from being completely off the fantasy radar to putting up 57 points and pacing for nearly 70. A new coaching staff finally leaned into Columbus’ young core, and Johnson thrived, especially alongside Adam Fantilli, forming one of the Jackets' more consistent lines. His shooting percentage jumped to 19.5%, which, yes, is high, but this is not about sustainability, it is about smashing projections, and Johnson did just that. With a locked-in top-six role and clear chemistry forming, he is an easy bet to keep trending up next season.

Thanks for reading! See you next week! For more fantasy hockey content and analysis, follow me on X @Punters_hockey. If you have any questions about your team or a trade? My DMs are always open — happy to help!