Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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1. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for May. Thank you to those who left comments on social media. Some notes on the rankings:

I had Zach Werenski ahead of Quinn Hughes in the previous update, which was in March. Hughes wasn’t 100% for much of the second half, and he should benefit from an offseason of rest. Although Werenski had a fine season finishing second in scoring among defensemen, Hughes was second in points per game among blueliners (1.12 PTS/GP), behind only Cale Makar. I’ve ranked the d-men Makar, then Hughes, then Werenski. For the rest, you’ll have to go to the rankings.

Many players fell due to other players returning from injury. However, I made a priority of boosting young players – in particular, Lane Hutson, Macklin Celebrini, and even Connor Bedard – relative to other players around them. I may have to raise their rankings even more as we get closer to fantasy drafts next season. Hutson had the biggest jump of the three, given his top-10 defensemen scoring numbers. Was the increase enough? Again, check out the rankings and let me know. (may16)

2. Finding obituary articles about the Leafs – particularly the Core 4 – was not particularly difficult to do following their Game 5 no-show. Yet for everyone who was ready to stick a fork into the Leafs, they still had one more game to play. And in that game, they were able to receive a stay of execution in the form of a much-needed win. Does anyone in Toronto want to pick their jersey up off the ice?

Auston Matthews – yes, the one appearing on missing person posters – broke the ice and broke his slump in the third period with what turned out to be the game-winning goal. Full marks to the Leafs on the win, as they had a much better effort in Game 6 than they did in Game 5. The job’s not done yet, as the good vibes from this Game 6 win will be eradicated if Matthews and company cannot deliver in Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena tonight (Sunday). If the Leafs win that game, it will be the first conference final for the Core 4 and the first trip to a conference final for the Leafs franchise since 2001-02. That season, they lost to Carolina, who is waiting for an opponent in this season’s Eastern Conference Final. (may17)

3. Alex Ovechkin‘s record-setting season has now come to an end. The Canes managed to cool down the Great 8 in this series, holding him to just a single goal without an assist in the five-game series. Ovie took at least three shots in each of the last four games, but getting a puck past Frederik Andersen was too much of a task for Ovechkin and many of the Capitals. He finished the playoffs with five goals and an assist in 10 games. (may16)

Ovi will return to action in the 2025-26 season, ending any speculation that he would retire after breaking the goal record late in the regular season. Ovechkin has one more season left on a contract with a cap hit of $9.5 million. He will turn 40 just before the season starts, so it’s possible that next season is his final season, although it seems like he’ll very much be able to continue his NHL career beyond that.

Ovechkin’s former linemate Nicklas Backstrom is attempting to continue his hockey journey. Backstrom will reportedly sign a one-year contract to play for Brynas in the Swedish Hockey League. He will be “treading very carefully”, playing a limited number of games following hip surgery. Good luck to him.  (may17)

4. Alexander Nikishin made his NHL debut in Game 5 of the Hurricanes-Capitals series, logging 10:33 while being paired with Shayne Gostisbehere. Nikishin entered the lineup in place of Jalen Chatfield, who was dealing with an undisclosed injury. Early indications are that the 6-4, 216 lb. Nikishin might be a beast. (may16)

5. Two head coaches were hired this week, both of whom were behind the bench this past season for the Canucks. I’ll share some thoughts about how their teams might be affected.

Rick Tocchet >> Philadelphia

Said Ian Gooding: Tocchet was viewed as an offense-averse coach in Vancouver, particularly during his final season there. However, that was not only system-based, but also personnel-based. In the process of losing a big chunk of their scoring by trading J.T. Miller, the Canucks upgraded their defense and shifted toward a low-event style of game.

Tocchet might attempt a similar low-event style for a Flyers team that finished with the league’s fourth-worst record. Their current netminders are a downgrade from Vancouver’s, so leaving it to the goalies won’t be a path to success. As well, the Flyers have had one of the league’s worst power plays for several seasons. Needless to say, Tocchet will have his work cut out for him. As well, how he handles Matvei Michkov will be an area of interest, although replacing John Tortorella with just about any coach is probably an upgrade to Michkov’s fantasy value. (may16)

Said Michael Clifford: Tocchet is a coach who likes his teams to slow things down and play opportunistic hockey, so the big question is if he can build a solid defensive team both at even strength and on the penalty kill to help out their goaltenders. If he can do that, this is a team that could fight for a playoff spot next season. Assuming RFAs Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster, and Cam York are brought back, the roster will look largely the same in 2025-26 as it did in 2024-25, so it’s a matter of the young guys improving and squeezing more out of the veterans. Tocchet did that well in Vancouver, so let’s see how this goes in Philadelphia. (may15)

6. Adam Foote >> Vancouver

Said Ian Gooding: Foote was Tocchet’s right-hand man in Vancouver, tasked with handling the defense. That defense improved under Foote, who seems like the most seamless transition from a Tocchet-based system. If a defense-first style has you concerned about Quinn Hughes‘s scoring, keep in mind that Hughes had glowing reviews about Foote during a post-game interview. Hughes most likely provided some input on the Foote hire, with the Canucks’ strategy this offseason centering around keeping their captain happy so he is more likely to re-sign when his contract expires in two seasons. 

What happens with Elias Pettersson is also a burning question for the Canucks. If Foote is the coach that Hughes describes (“I think Adam Foote is the best coach I’ve ever had”, said Hughes), and Pettersson is as committed to his offseason training as the Canucks hope he will be, then perhaps he is the right coach for Pettersson next season. Much of that will be up to Pettersson, regardless of who the coach is. Expect 2025-26 projections for Pettersson to be all over the map. (may16)

Said Michael Clifford: All told, it’s hard to say whether this will be a good or bad move to have Foote as the coach because a lot of what could make this team a Cup contender again (a healthy Elias Pettersson and Thatcher Demko, a good offseason of signings and trades) has nothing to do with Foote himself. If he can make Quinn Hughes happy, then great, but the outlook of this team relies on things that are out of Foote’s control, so this hiring is a big ‘ok, sure’ for now. (may15)

7. Staying with the Canucks, they signed prospect Tom Willander to a three-year entry-level deal. Willander turned 20 years old this past February and is coming off two seasons with Boston University where he amassed 49 points in 77 games. Without further changes, there is a spot on the third pair for Willander if he can assert himself, but he is likely to have competition if/when the team fills out the roster over the summer. (may15)

8. The Los Angeles Kings’ general manager search did not last long as they hired former Oilers boss Ken Holland to take over the direction of the team. Given Los Angeles’ struggles against Edmonton in the playoffs in recent memory, if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, I guess? The forward group is largely fine, so Holland will be in charge of re-tooling the blue line, whether with free agent Vladislav Gavrikov or not. (may15)

9. From Puckpedia, we have the offer sheet comp levels for 2025:

<$1.54M no comp
1.54M – 2.34M: 3rd
2.34M – 4.68M: 2nd
4.68M – 7.02M: 1st, 3rd
7.02M – 9.36M: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
9.36M – 11.7M: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
11.7M+: 1st x 4

I can think of a few RFAs who could be trouble for teams to retain if a poaching team aims right at the border numbers like $4.5 million or $7.0 million per season. Matthew Knies, Dmitri Voronkov, Marco Rossi, or the duo of Mason McTavish & Lukas Dostal as examples.

It worked well for the Blues last summer with Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, and while some teams might have additional space to sign their own RFAs with the cap going up drastically, some other teams may see a sudden jump in available cap space and look to weaponize it.

Rossi especially I think could be a really interesting addition for a few teams. After not being fully appreciated by the Wild, and being a few games from his 200-game breakout threshold, a change of scenery could really unlock the offensive potential that made Rossi the ninth-overall pick back in 2020. (may14)

10. Aside from Rossi, below I have listed a few players who I have been making mental notes about, and I’m going to be targeting in drafts next year. Whether they’re around their breakout thresholds, due for an increase in opportunity, or could see an uptick in production for another reason, these are a few of the guys I already have my eye on.

Pavel Buchnevich – Had an extremely disappointing season but managed to turn it around right at the tail end with 10 points in his last eight games, and that continued into the playoffs with eight points in their seven-game series. The 60-point pace from the last two seasons will keep many fantasy mangers from reaching on him, but I think we could see him bounce back to the point-per-game plateau next year. Keep in mind though that he did just turn 30, so the runway on that turnaround will likely be shorter, and without the same kind of peak (87-point-pace) as before. (may14)

11. Marco Kasper – A great rookie campaign was hidden behind the amazing crop of rookies that we saw in the league this season, but don’t let that mean you have to be one of the people overlooking him too. He scored at a 40-point pace on the year, but in the second half that was up closer to 55, and that was with some awful power play luck (zero PPPs in over a minute of power play ice time per game in the second half). On top of that, Kasper added 156 hits (over two per game). The underlying numbers also say that he drove play in a role that was not at all sheltered, which bodes well for fending off any kind of sophomore slump. (may14)

12. Evander Kane – After missing the entire regular season, Kane has not missed a beat in the playoffs, scoring seven points in nine games, adding 10 PIMs, 24 shots, and 36 hits in only 16 minutes of ice time per game. Extrapolate that out for a full 82 games and you’re looking at 64 points, a plus 27 rating, 91 PIMs, 219 SOGs, 328 Hits, and 46 Blocks. If you don’t end up with Brady Tkachuk on your team, then Kane is the next best thing. Here are Brady’s 82-game pace numbers from this past season as a comparable: 62 points, minus-one, 140 PIMs, 335 SOGs, 260 Hits, and 38 Blocks. (may14)

13. Tyson Foerster – The Flyers winger finished the season hot with 14 points in 20 Q4 games, where he put up 47 shots to boot. He’s butting up against his breakout threshold as well, being only 34 games away now, and should see an opportunity to rise with whoever the Flyers bring in as their new coach to replace John Tortorella. His overall production of 43 points and a minus-nine rating is going to mask most of the potential for next year, but he could turn out to be an excellent secondary producer of offence, who also isn’t light on the peripherals. (may14)

14. As you prepare for next year’s fantasy drafts, you’ll probably comb through stats from this past regular season to evaluate players. In most cases, you’ll be presented with season-long totals and averages. However, these numbers often fail to capture late-season hot streaks, which can be a sign of good things to come. Over the next few weeks, I’ll discuss players whose late-season rampages may get lost in season-long numbers. These players could provide great fantasy value if they end up carrying late momentum from this season into next year.

Ilya Sorokin

A .907 SV%, 2.71 GAA and 21.24 goals saved above expected. Solid stats, but a step below the level you’d expect from someone that was recently considered a top-five netminder in the NHL. Looking back at this past regular season, Sorokin’s overall stats won’t jump off the page, but he was outstanding down the stretch. From the beginning of February to the end of the regular season (April 17^th), Sorokin led the league with nearly 17 goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey). Now, because the team in front of him wasn’t great defensively, his save percentage and goals against average suffered during this stretch. Still, that league-leading GSAx suggests he was on his game while the Isles battled for a playoff spot, so I’m optimistic he can carry that form into a new campaign. New York’s blueline was bitten by the injury bug frequently this past season, with defensive stalwarts Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield missing significant action. A healthy team, hopefully improved under incoming new management, should hopefully help Sorokin return to top-tier form next year. (may12)

15. Mika Zibanejad

The 32-year-old center provides a great example of nuance being lost in season-long point totals. Upon first glance, you’ll see Zibanejad posted just 62 points this year – down from 73 points the previous year, which was already a drop from his 91 points the year before that. However, a closer look reveals that from February 1^st to the end of the regular season, Zibanejad ranked top-15 in scoring with 33 points in 32 games. Why is February 1^st a significant date? Well, that was J.T. Miller‘s first game for the Rangers this season after he was dealt by the Canucks. That began Miller’s second stint with the Rangers, as he and Zibanejad also shared the ice together during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 campaigns. Considering how well they produced together for a third of this season, I’m optimistic about what they can accomplish over a larger sample. A full season with Miller could help Zibanejad achieve a higher point total next year – although, whether those two end up playing together again will be up to new coach Mike Sullivan. Zibanejad also suffered from a lack of power-play success this year, which wasn’t solved by Miller’s arrival. The Rangers have too much talent to be finishing 28^th in the league on the power play, so let’s hope this new coaching staff can right the ship, and that Zibanejad is part of the solution. He averaged over 30 PPPs a year in recent seasons but managed a measly 19 this year. I think a more successful power play and more Miller time will be key to Zibanejad bouncing back next season. (may12)

16. Yesterday I discussed four players from my various fantasy teams that exceeded their preseason expectations during the 2024-25 season. Today I’ll flip it around with players that performed below expectations on my fantasy teams – in other words, players I expected more from. These choices are generally based on point projections versus actual performance.

Steven Stamkos

I can remember another Dobber writer (I think Brennan) suggesting not to draft players changing teams in the offseason, as they may need a season to adjust to their new surroundings. Hopefully that is the case for Stamkos, whose first season in Nashville was disastrous. Although his fourth-quarter production (17 points in 21 games) was an improvement over his first-quarter production (11 points in 23 games), his season-by-season point total fell by nearly 30 points from his final season in Tampa Bay. A minus-36 ranking was also embarrassing.

In order to rebound, Stamkos’ shot total will need to increase. Taking at least three shots per game in his last three seasons with the Lightning, Stamkos was held to just over two shots per game while maintaining a similar shooting percentage. The chances of Nashville as a team improving in 2025-26 seem good, but they simply may not generate the number of quality scoring chances for Stamkos to capitalize on. Stamkos should be drafted at a discount next season. (may11)

17. Connor Bedard

Bedard’s overall point total improved slightly (67 PTS) from his rookie season (61 PTS), but his point-per-game average fell due to more games played (from 0.9 PTS/GP to 0.82 PTS/GP). Bedard also equaled Stamkos in plus-minus (-36) playing for a team that struggled even more.

We probably expected more from Bedard by now, given how much he dominated the WHL. The easy narrative would be to assume that he won’t meet the hype at the NHL level, but don’t forget that he is also still only 19 years of age. Surrounding Bedard with young talent instead of replacement-level players will also be critical. It may also be a matter of being patient. Nathan MacKinnon did not reach superstar level until his fifth NHL season. Bedard may be looking at a similar curve. (may11)

18. Brent Burns

At the opposite end of the age spectrum is Burns, who may be at the end of the NHL road. Burns has just celebrated his 40^th birthday and will be a free agent as soon as the Hurricanes’ season ends. After some solid seasons into his late 30s, Burns finished the season with just 29 points in 82 games. Playing on the Canes’ second-unit power play, Burns was held to just three power-play points all season. I wasn’t expecting the world from Burns at his advanced age, but I thought another 40-point season was possible.

If Burns still wants to play, he should get signed somewhere. Burns is still extremely durable, as he’s the league’s current ironman with 925 consecutive games played. He could also become a bit more appealing in cap leagues (which is where I have him rostered), as he should sign for significantly less than his current $4 million cap hit. If he does play, then he should be a late-round flier at best, as his days of multicategory dominance have passed. (may11)

19. Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin had the highest ADP of any goalie in Yahoo (17.1), but his season numbers (2.86 GAA, .904 SV%) were better suited for a slightly above average goalie. Goalie numbers in fantasy are often tied to team performance, and the fact is that Shesterkin was a victim of the Rangers’ disappointing season. His 27 wins wasn’t even in the top 10, even though he was one of five goalies to play at least 60 games.

Despite those numbers, Shesterkin’s 19.00 GSAx (goals saved above expected) was in the top 10 of the league. Comparable GSAx goalies had better ratios, suggesting that the Rangers were losing in spite of Shesterkin instead of because of him. If the Rangers rebound under new coach Mike Sullivan and make the playoffs, Shesterkin should be in line for a better 2025-26. (may11)

20. My Ramblings over the last few weeks have been reviewing preseason projections. We started with forwards who underperformed goal-scoring expectations, those who overperformed with their goal totals, and some forwards whose goal tally was close to their preseason projection. Then we shifted to point totals and the forwards who fell short, those who exceeded expectations, and those whose point production was close to their preseason target. Then the discussion turned to defencemen, and we looked at both the underperformers and the overperformers before finishing with those we got right.

Today (Thursday), let’s get away from individual preseason projections and look at things that had a big influence on those goal and point totals.

How about we start with one of the big developments: Shot totals. In 2024-25, we saw the lowest rate of shots on goal generated per shot attempt at 5-on-5 in the analytics era. This has been declining for a few years now, after nearly a decade of stability, and has plummeted from 0.55 shots on goal per shot attempt in 2021-22 to just 0.47 this season. (may15)

[Follow the link for more…]

21. And on Tuesday, we moved on to which defencemen came in very close to their preseason outlook for point production. 

We are using Natural Stat Trick for end-of-season data to compare to my preseason projections. We also limited the sample to rearguards projected for at least 15 points and who appeared in at least 41 games, which gives us a sample of 152 players. Then we are extrapolating all point totals to a full 82-game season to try and put everyone on the same footing. (may13)

[Follow the link for more…]

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Have a good week, folks!

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