This week, we will examine Dallas, Edmonton, Vegas, and Winnipeg, looking at the players who will become free agents on July 1st or at the end of 2025-26. We had looked at part one and part two in the weeks prior.
We will also see how much salary cap space each team has with the salary cap increasing to $95.5 million in 2025-26. We will attempt to look at positional needs for the next year and whether the team can improve from within, trade or free agency.
All salary information from www.puckpedia.com.
Dallas Stars – Finished 5th overall (50W – 26L – 6 OT – 106 PTS)
Goals For: 275 (3rd overall)
Goals Against: 222 (6th overall)
Powerplay: 22.0% (17th overall)
Penalty Kill: 82.0% (4th overall)
Faceoffs: 52.1% (7th overall)
Projected Cap Space 2025-26: $5.87 million
Unrestricted Free Agents: Jamie Benn (80-16-33-49), Mikael Granlund (83-22-44-66), Matt Duchene (82-30-52-82), Evgenii Dadonov (80-20-20-40), Colin Blackwell (63-6-11-17), Cody Ceci (85-4-20-24) and Brendan Smith (32-1-5-6)
Restricted Free Agents: Mavrik Bourque (73-11-14-25) and Nils Lundkvist (39-0-5-5)
Summary:
Dallas made a huge splash at the deadline by acquiring Mikko Rantanen (82-32-56-88), who leads the playoff scoring race at this point. They did re-sign Rantanen for eight years at $12 million AAV.
The Stars are facing the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals.
Players on the rise include Wyatt Johnston (82-33-38-71), Bourque, Lian Bichsel (38-4-5-9) and Thomas Harley (78-16-34-50).
Players who could see a regular role from within are Justin Hryckowian (5-0-1-1), Arttu Hyry (5-0-1-1), Antonio Stranges (0-0-0-0) and Matej Blumel (7-1-0-1).
My re-signing valuations for Benn have him between $5 and $5.5 million AAV, Granlund between $7 and $7.5 million AAV, Duchene between $7 and $8 million AAV, Dadonov between $3 and $3.5 million AAV, Blackwell under $1 million, Ceci between $3.5 and $4 million and Smith under $1 million. The restricted free agents are Bourque, between $1.5 and $2.0 million AAV and Lundkvist, between $1 and 1.5 million AAV.
That leaves the Stars with very little cap space to re-sign any of Benn, Granlund, Duchene, Dadonov or Ceci.
Mason Marchment (62-22-25-47) and Matt Dumba (63-1-9-10) might both be entering into the last year of their contracts in 2025-26.
Edmonton Oilers – Finished 9th overall (48 W – 29 L – 5 OT – 101 PTS)
Goals For: 259 (11th overall)
Goals Against: 235 (14th overall)
Powerplay: 23.7% (12th overall)
Penalty Kill: 78.2% (16th overall)
Faceoffs: 50.9% (12th overall)
Projected Cap Space 2025-26: $9.41 million
Unrestricted Free Agents: Jeff Skinner (72-16-13-29), Corey Perry (81-19-11-30), Connor Brown (82-13-17-30), Kasperi Kapanen (67-6-8-14), Trent Frederic (58-8-7-15) and John Klingberg (11-1-3-4)
Restricted Free Agents: Evan Bouchard (82-14-53-67)
Summary:
The Oilers are through to the Western Conference Finals against Dallas after eliminating Vegas in five games.
Players on the rise might only include Vasily Podkolzin (82-8-16-24), but there might be some questions on his offensive ceiling already being met.
Players who could see a regular role from within are Matthew Savoie (4-0-1-1), Olivier Rodrigue (0-1-0, 86.2) and Quinn Hutson (2-0-0-0).
My re-signing valuations for Jeff Skinner are between $2.5 and $3.0 million AAV, Perry between $1.5 and $2.0 million AAV, Brown between $2.0 and $2.5 million AAV, Kapanen under $1 million AAV, Frederic between $1.5 and $2.0 million AAV and Klingberg under $1 million AAV.
Restricted free agent Bouchard is between $10.0 and $11.0 million AAV.
Most of the budget will need to go to Bouchard, so that leaves very little room to bring back any of the other free agents.
Connor McDavid (67-26-74-100), Evander Kane (10-4-3-7 playoffs), Viktor Arvidsson (67-15-12-27), Adam Henrique (81-12-15-27), Max Jones (26-1-1-2), Mattias Ekholm (65-9-24-33), Jake Walman (65-7-33-40), Brett Kulak (82-7-18-25), Troy Stecher (66-3-4-7), Stuart Skinner (26-18-4, 89.6) and Calvin Pickard (22-10-1, 90.0) could all be entering into the last year of their contracts in 2025-26.
All resources need to be allocated to get McDavid extended this off-season or into 2025-26. Nothing else really matters if they don't.
Vegas Golden Knights – Finished 3rd overall (50 W – 22 L – 10 OT – 110 PTS)
Eliminated in the 2nd round by Edmonton in five games
Goals For: 274 (5th overall)
Goals Against: 214 (3rd overall)
Powerplay: 28.3% (2nd overall)
Penalty Kill: 75.7% (26th overall)
Faceoffs: 50.4% (15th overall)
Projected Cap Space 2025-26: $9.61 million
Unrestricted Free Agents: Reilly Smith (79-13-27-40), Brandon Saad (72-13-16-29), Victor Olofsson (56-15-14-29), Tanner Pearson (78-12-15-27), Jonas Rondbjerg (13-0-0-0) and Ilya Samsonov (16-9-4, 89.1)
Restricted Free Agents: Alexander Holtz (53-4-8-12), Cole Schwindt (42-1-7-8) and Nicolas Hague (68-5-7-12)
Summary:
Vegas might be at a crossroads after being sent home in five games against Edmonton. They still have most of their core locked up for 2025-26, so they should roll back a similar roster, but their window is closing quickly.
Players on the rise possibly include Pavel Dorofeyev (82-35-17-52), Holtz, Kaedan Korczak (40-0-10-10) and Schwindt. There are question marks on any or all of these four improving moving forward.
Players who could see a regular role from within are Akira Schmid (2-0-1, 94.4) and Rondbjerg. They don't have much else in the system for 2025-26.
My re-signing valuations for Smith have him between $3.5 to $4.0 million AAV, Saad between $1.5 and $2.0 million AAV, Olofsson between $2.5 and $3.0 million AAV, Pearson under $1 million AAV and Samsonov between $2.5 and $3.0 million AAV.
The restricted free agents’ value has Holtz and Schwindt both under $1 million, while Hague should come in between $1.5 and $2.0 million AAV.
Jack Eichel (77-28-66-94) and Ben Hutton (11-0-2-2) will be entering into the last year of their contracts in 2025-26.
The situation with Eichel is similar to the one in Edmonton with McDavid, but on a top 20 forward, not on the top player in the NHL.
Winnipeg Jets – Finished 1st overall (56 W – 22 L – 4 OT – 116 PTS)
Eliminated in the 1st Round of the Playoffs in seven games by Winnipeg
Goals For: 275 (3rd overall)
Goals Against: 190 (1st overall)
Powerplay: 28.9% (1st overall)
Penalty Kill: 79.4% (13th overall)
Faceoffs: 49.3% (21st overall)
Projected Cap Space 2025-26: $25.69 million
Unrestricted Free Agents: Nikolaj Ehlers (69-24-39-63), Brandon Tanev (79-10-12-22), Mason Appleton (71-10-12-22), Dominic Toninato (5-0-0-0), Haydn Fleury (39-0-7-7, Chris Driedger (0-0-0,0)
Restricted Free Agents: Gabriel Vilardi (71-27-34-61), Morgan Barron (74-8-7-15), Rasmus Kupari (59-5-3-8), Dylan Samberg (60-6-14-20)
Summary:
The Jets unexpectedly won the Presidents' Trophy in 2024-25 while having the best power play and the best goalie in the NHL. They couldn't get past Dallas in the second round of the playoffs losing in six games.
Players on the rise are Cole Perfetti (82-18-32-50) and perhaps still Ville Heinola (18-0-1-1) if he can ever stay healthy.
Players who could see a regular role from within are Nikita Chibrikov (4-2-1-3, Brad Lambert (5-0-1-1), Colby Barlow (0-0-0-0), Elias Salomonsson (0-0-0-0), Brayden Yager (0-0-0-0) and Parker Ford (3-1-0-1).
My re-signing valuations for Ehlers have him between $7 and $8 million AAV, Tanev between $3 and $3.5 million AAV, Appleton between $1.5 and $2.0 and Fleury between $1.8 and $2.4 million AAV.
Restricted free agents are Vilardi, who should come in between $6 and $7 million AAV, Barron between $1.3 million and $1.7 million, Kupari under $1 million and Samberg between $3.5 and $4.5 million AAV.
I have a feeling Ehlers could get more money from another team willing to overpay, while Tanev might be too expensive for what he brings. The Jets will need to decide if they think that Samberg is worth his current value.
Kyle Connor (82-41-56-97), Adam Lowry (73-16-18-34), Luke Schenn (76-1-6-7), Colin Miller (60-4-11-15), Logan Stanley (63-1-13-14), and Eric Comrie (9-10-1, 91.4) will all be entering into the last year of their contracts in 2025-26. Connor and Lowry are vital to this roster moving forward.
The Jets will need to be careful with the cap space they do have, so that they can bring back Ehlers (or equivalent), Vilardi, Connor and Lowry.
Thank you very much for reading, and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15