Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

As difficult as it is to correctly predict whether – and, if so, to what extent – a prospect will thrive in the NHL, it's also no small task to figure out how long proven players can continue to produce at a high level. With that in mind, the skaters on tap this week (Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon) will all be turning 30 either before or during the course of next season. Which one of them can keep playing at his same level ("just right"), versus do even better ("too cold"), or should be due to regress ("too hot") based on 2024-25 data? Put on your thinking caps, make your guesses, and read on to see if you nailed all three.

Brayden Point (77 GP, 40 G, 42 A, 188 SOG, 19:29 TOI, 31 PPPts, 3:28 PP, 74.9% PP%)

Grabbed in the third round by Tampa in 2014, Point predictably did not land in the NHL right away. But by age 20 he was with the Bolts to stay. He fared well his first two seasons, but became perhaps the poster boy for the 200 game breakout threshold by rising to 92 points in 79 games in his third season. After that though, he came back to earth, before rising to 90+ in each of 2022-23 and 2023-24, and nearly hitting the mark again this season. Is this right where he should be? Might he slow? Or could he rise further? Most likely we are looking at a new normal of a sub-90 scoring pace for him.

If you glance at Point's metrics, what immediately sticks out is his three straight seasons with a SH% above 20% while also averaging 2.4+ SOG in each season, all at age 25+. If that seems remarkable, it is, as no one had done that since Mario Lemieux. In fact, the only other pure centers to also achieve the feat in NHL history were Gilbert Perrault and Peter Stastny. The issue is those two are difficult to compare with Point, as they were stars in their own right, whereas Point has unquestionably benefited from playing alongside a true superstar in Nikita Kucherov.

If you're expecting me to say that is a reason for concern for Point, it's not, since there are zero signs the two will be separated. The issue though is whether Point can realistically get better, or even rise back above 90 points, as even though he played alongside Kucherov as much as usual, Point's scoring wasn't quite as high as it's been. But why not?

For one, his SOG rate is dropping, down from 2.9 per game in 2022-23, to 2.8 in 2023-24, to 2.4 in 2024-25. Since he can't realistically see his SH% rise further, this came at the expense of scoring for 2024-25. Beyond that, in Q4, Point had 18 points in 21 games on just 44 SOG. Although he also had a dud quarter in 2023-24, in it he still had 52 SOG in 21 games, plus for 2024-25 it was to end the season, while in 2023-24 his best scoring pace came in Q4. I realize 29 is young to think of someone starting to wear down, but let's keep in mind with this year's playoffs, Point has played exactly a full season's worth of games just in his playoff career. That adds up, as does the fact he's not getting the chance to fully rest and recuperate like most, thanks to so many deep playoff runs by Tampa. Let's just say his lower SOG rate for the season, and worst quarter, being Q4 are not reassuring.

As far as TOI, Point continued to see virtually no PK duty, while again taking the ice for three quarters of his team's man advantage minutes. But his overall TOI was down, albeit above what it was in two of the three instances where he had a 90+ point scoring pace. It is notable too that his team shot a whopping 12.4% at 5×5 with him on the ice. Double digits is nothing new for Point, but that was a career high, as was his PDO. Not reassuring either, although there is some solace in Point's overall IPP and secondary assist rate being right where they usually are. 

Also, despite Point's PP scoring staying stable, his PP IPP that was a career best of 64.6%, which, although not high, was the first time he was above 60%. I bet you're thinking I'm going to say that is worrisome too? On the contrary. Although Tampa tallied a goal on 25.9% of its PP opportunities, good for fifth in the entire NHL, that was down from 28.6% in 2023-24. My sense is this was due to the departure of Steven Stamkos, who was so integral to that PP1 unit – with 74 PPPts in his last two Tampa campaigns – that they needed time to rework things. Although in theory many PPPts normally earmarked for Stamkos should go to Jake Guentzel, the team also has now used Brandon Hagel on the top unit; and although Hagel is a monster at even strength, he's not a PPPt magnet, with a PP IPP this season of just 28.9%. What I see unfolding is Point's PP IPP rising even further as he absorbs PPPts that Stamkos would've gotten, while the Lightning, with a season of no Stamkos on PP1, should have more success with the man advantage come 2025-26. In the end, I can envision Point getting 5+ more PPPts than usual next season and beyond, especially since his PPG total only rose by one, and he will be looked to more for sniping on the man advantage. 

No question Point has one of the best gigs in hockey, centering if not the best player in the NHL, arguably the best winger. With that showing no signs of ending, nor Kucherov of slowing, Point should continue to be very productive. So although there were some concerning 2024-25 metrics, they stand to be offset somewhat, if not entirely, by PPPts that Point stands to gain. But with Point shooting less and taking the ice less, I think his days of 90+ points are likely gone, making his 2024-25 output JUST RIGHT, and giving him a rating of 5.75, as I see him landing in the 85-90 range for the next few seasons.

Leon Draisaitl (71 GP, 52 G, 54 A, 240 SOG, 21:31 TOI, 28 PPPts 3:17 PP, 81.3% PP%)

The Oilers selected Draisaitl in that same 2014 draft, but third overall. Unlike Point, it took a bit longer for Draisaitl to be hugely impactful; however, since posting a 100+ point pace for the first time in 2018-19, he's yet to not do so again. But after two straight seasons of 120+ point production, Draisaitl's scoring rate has been a bit up and down, with 2024-25 being an up year. Will 2025-26 be a down one? No, as I see him being able to improve upon what he did in 2024-25.

I'll start with Draisaitl where I did with Point, namely SH%, as Draisaitl established a career high at 21.7%. But he's been above 21.0% two prior times and no lower than 18.5% since he started his amazing scoring run. Yes, he established this career high while also averaging 3.4 SOG per game, his second highest rate, trailing only the 3.5 he averaged in 2021-22. But in that season his SH% was 19.8%. So is there reason for concern? I don't think so, as if we look at each quarter of 2024-25, Draisaitl had a pretty consistent SOG rate, meaning this was not inflated because of a supernova stretch of scoring goals left and right. Basically, this story checks out.

Looking at PPPts, 2023-24 was the first season since he exploded that Draisaitl didn't average at least one PPPt per every other game, and this season his rate was even lower. But after the Oilers had 242 PP opportunities in 2023-24, scoring on 26.4% of them, they had only 215 in 2024-25, scoring on an even lower percentage at 23.8%. How did this happen? Most likely due to Draisaitl and Connor McDavid missing 10+ games in the same season. Although Draisaitl actually averaged a bit better than a PPT per game in the contests he played when McDavid was out of the line-up, the team's PP seemed a bit more neutered as a whole, with Draisaitl having only five games with two or more PPPts, tallying exactly two PPPts in each, versus eight such multi-PPPts contests in 2023-24, tallying three in one of them. It certainly seems like Edmonton was not firing on all cylinders when it came to the PP, and I do not see Draisaitl, who had a career best 78.6% PP IPP, failing to pile up as many PPPts come 2025-26.

Speaking of IPPs, Draisaitl's overall was 81.5%, also a career best. So there is only one way to go and that's down, right? Nope. Whereas in 2023-24, McDavid was Draisaitl's most frequent linemate in three of four quarters, this season that only happened in one quarter, with him being saddled in the other three with mainly Victor Arvidsson, Vasily Podkolzin, and Kasperi Kapanen. It's no wonder his IPP was so high. If he can score as well as he did playing mostly alongside talent so far below him, then either his IPP will stay sky high if he is tasked with doing so again, or it might go down, but if that occurs he'll be playing with better players – perhaps a back to health Evander Kane? – with more goals being scored. Either way, I see it as more likely that he does even better at ES come next season.

Perhaps due to his not very talented linemates, Draisaitl's 5×4 team SH% was 8.8%, which to some might be perfectly reasonable. For Draisaitl though, it was his lowest mark since he became a consistent 100+ point scoring rate player. The two prior seasons it was 10.3% and 10.0% respectively, with one of those being an up season and the other a down one. So for sure 8.8% is unsustainably low. As for secondary assist rate, that was right at his norm, so nothing notable there.

Lastly, Draisaitl led all forwards in 2024-25 in percentage of games with at least one point, as well as percentage of multipoint games. How then, did he not have the highest scoring rate in the league, instead landing behind Nikita Kucherov and tied with McDavid? Because he had nine games with three or more points, with the highest being just one four point game. Contrast that to McDavid, who played in four fewer games and had five fewer multipoint games, but had 13 games with 3+ points, two of which saw him post four points, or Nikita Kucherov, who had three fewer multipoint games, yet more than half of those games saw Kucherov tally three or more points, including three games with four and one with six. Looking at 2022-23 where Draisaitl had 128 points, that included 17 games with 3+ points, two of those being four points efforts and another two seeing him post five points. Long story short, Draisaitl, despite so many multi-points games and being so consistent, should've produced better due to fewer than his normal number of contests with 3+ points.

No surprise – Draisatil checks out as among the true elite in the NHL. For him to have scored as many points as he did in 2024-25 despite such lousy linemates, a down year for the Edmonton's PP, and fewer big games, is a testament to how remarkable he is. Those factors should improve, and, with that, his scoring ought to rise. I see his 2024-25 as TOO COLD and I give him a rating of 3.25, as we should pencil him in for 130+ points for 2025-26.

Nathan MacKinnon (79 GP, 32 G, 84 A, 318 SOG, 22:47 TOI, 38 PPPts, 3:50 PP, 81.9% PP%)

Picked first overall in 2013, Mac took roughly the same amount of time as Drasaitl before he rose to the level to which we've now grown accustomed. But unlike Draisaitl, Mac seems to be getting even better, as after a 111 point scoring pace for three straight seasons he's been at or above a 120 point pace in each of the last three. But 2024-25 was 120, after 128 and 140. Might it be that Mac has peaked; or will he rise again? Sorry to say for Mac owners, but it looks like we've already seen the best of him, and hitting a 120 point pace again is iffy.

While no one will question that MacKinnon is superbly talented, and an amazing player in his own right, there is the reality that all his best seasons have come since Mikko Rantanen joined the Avs in 2016-17. Granted, they did not always play together at 5×5; but looking back, they were together far more often than apart when all was said and done. And last season, when Mac posted a career best 140 points, all but 23 of those points came with Rantanen also on the ice. The question becomes this – can we get a sense, from the 30 games Mac played after Rantanen left town, what the impact of his absence on MacKinnon might be? Let's take a look.

MacKinnon totaled 41 points in those 30 games, for a scoring rate of 112. Still great, but well below his amazing rate of these past three seasons, and more in line with his prior three seasons. Beyond that, 18 of those points came in just five games, meaning in the other 25 he was under a point per game! On the plus side, he had 17 PPPts in those 30 games, meaning a rate better than a point per every other game, whereas prior to Rantanen leaving his rate of PP scoring was lower. The team's PP conversion percentage was 24.5%, down only slightly from 24.8%, meaning their PP was not neutered. But given his drop in overall scoring, the departure of Rantanen would seem to not bode well for Mac to be able to score at a level similar to the past three seasons.

Also, it's not as if a player of the caliber of Rantanen can be added, as Gabriel Landeskog is likely to rejoin the team, with his hefty salary counting again. Martin Necas was amazing early in the season, but faded, and was not reignited on Colorado. Mitch Marner would be at the talent level of Rantanen, but too pricy to add, leaving the likes of Brock Boeser or Nikolaj Ehlers, both of whom could do well but are very unlikely to be mistaken for Rantanen.

It’s also notable that MacKinnon's SOG rate, after peaking at 5.2 per game in 2022-23, fell to 4.9 last season, but then dropped all the way to 4.0 in 2024-25. This is consequential, as only once did MacKinnon previously have a 100+ point scoring rate with a SOG per game rate that was lower. Yes, MacKinnon was shooting slightly more often after the departure of Rantanen, with 130 SOG in those 30 contests, for a rate of 4.3 per game; however, his rate was above that in all but two of his 100+ points scoring pace seasons, and that other season too was not one where he was in the 120+ range.

It’s not entirely bad news though, as Colorado shot only 8.7% at 5×5 with MacKinnon on the ice, and his PDO was under 1000. This is significant since in each of the prior five seasons those numbers were 10.7-11.6% and 1017-1029. His secondary assist rate was neither high nor low. Still, these metrics, though likely to stem the tide of lost points, seemingly will not be enough to entirely offset them, especially since MacKinnon is basically maxed out when it comes to TOI both overall and on the PP. As far as IPPs, he is not one who has much variance in that area, and was neither high nor low in 2024-25, so no hope there, but also no added concern.

MacKinnon was and still is a supremely talented player, and I don't see a universe where he fails to score at a 100+ point pace. But his recent stretch of 120+ point scoring paces look to be poised to end given what we saw both for 2024-25 overall and after the departure of Rantanen, who, simply put, cannot be replaced in general but also in view of the many years of chemistry that developed between him and Mac. As such, MacKinnon's 2024-25 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.25, as I see him falling back to 110 point territory, with a better chance of dropping to 105 than rising to 115.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.