Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

—

1. Let’s start by discussing some interesting recent non-playoff related top Frozen Tools searches from the past week. Could all three of these players be on the move during the offseason?

Trevor Zegras

Who exactly is Trevor Zegras? Is he the player that was good for 20+ goals and 60+ points in both 2021-22 and 2022-23? Or is he the player who was on a 40-45-point pace over the past two injury-riddled seasons? The more recent performance makes him a risky proposition in fantasy leagues.

On one radio show that I listened to recently, Zegras was described as a “distressed asset.” On the Natural Stat Trick Player Usage Chart, Zegras is listed as an average bottom-6 forward, which might not be accurate but describes how much his stock has fallen. That description is due to a below-average 45.86 CF% while facing a relatively easy -0.2045 QoC (quality of competition). Injury issues along with perceived character flaws are widely considered reasons for his sinking stock, and the Ducks have loaded up with some young talent that makes them less dependent on him.

It’s easy to forget that Zegras is still only 24 years old and possesses immense natural talent. He showed a glimpse of that during the final quarter of the season, when he registered 15 points over his last 20 games after registering just 17 points in his first 37 games. Perhaps we see more of that if Zegras can remain healthy.

Zegras seems to be a player who will be on the trade block this offseason. With Joel Quenneville bringing his impressive resume behind the Anaheim bench, it is not known whether Zegras is the type of player that Quenneville thinks he can win with. If so, then Zegras has the upside to rebound. If not, then a trade might be what it takes to get Zegras back on the right track. This is something to watch for this offseason, as a change of scenery could shift his value one way or the other. (may24)

[Follow the link for more on Pius Suter and Nikolaj Ehlers]

2. A note on Brad Marchand: the conditional second-round pick that the Bruins acquired for him will become a first round pick because Florida won two playoff rounds and Marchand appeared in more than 50% of the team’s games. As if Boston needed another reason to love that rat. (may19)

3. Brendan Shanahan will not be returning to the Toronto Maple Leafs, while the Leafs will not fill his position of president of hockey operations. The Leafs’ repeated playoff failures are expected to result in major changes for the club, especially with both Mitch Marner and John Tavares set to become UFAs. The “Shanaplan” might have been to let Marner walk via free agency anyway, but the organization might not be as loyal to the Core 4 as Shanahan was.

Elsewhere, Mathieu Darche has been named the Islanders GM, with the team not believed to be making any further hirings such as Shanahan. Darche will be busy right from the get-go, as the Islanders will need to decide who to select first overall after their draft lottery win. Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and Simon Holmstrom are restricted free agents who will need new contracts, while Kyle Palmieri and Tony DeAngelo are projected to hit unrestricted free agency. Speaking of GMs, Kevin Cheveldayoff, Jim Nill, and Bill Zito have been named the three finalists for the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year award. (may24)

Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks ended their coaching search by hiring former Detroit Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill. Michael Clifford wrote about that on Thursday here.

4. A few quick injury updates:

Josh Morrissey sustained a knee injury in game six against Dallas, which would have kept him out for the rest of the playoffs, but did not require surgery. Hopefully that means he can still get some kind of full offseason of training in, but it could also mean a bit of a slower start for him next fall.

Anthony Stolarz confirmed he suffered a concussion in game one of the Florida series – hoping he can fully recover soon.

Auston Matthews declined to share what injury he was playing through, which continues a long line of secrecy around his injuries. We’re still unsure whether the wrist that was bothering him a while ago is now still the main issue, or if something ese has cropped up.

Bo Horvat has left the World Championship with an injury, and has been replaced on the roster by 2025 draft eligible winger Porter Martone. (may21)

5. One major question for the Oilers entering Game 2 was which version of Stuart Skinner would show up against Dallas. After allowing five goals in Game 1, Skinner pitched a 24-save shutout to backstop the Oilers to a Game 2 victory and a split heading back to Edmonton for Game 3 this afternoon (Sunday). After giving up the net to Calvin Pickard for six games (and six wins), Skinner has found his game for the most part. The most bizarre stat might be that all three of his playoff wins have been shutouts, while he has allowed at least four goals in all four of his losses. No games where he has allowed 1, 2, or 3 goals! Expect Skinner to continue to start unless he hits the skids again, in which case it’ll be Pickard’s turn again. (may24)

In the East, Game 4 of the Hurricanes and Panthers series is slated for tomorrow (Monday).

6. The last few weeks of Ramblings have been reviewing preseason projections (all links contained in these Ramblings) as well as some changes to the hockey environment itself (peripherals here and usage of young players here). To wrap up the look back at preseason projections, let’s combine those two things to see how the projections fared overall, how the environment changed those projections, and what it can tell us about next season.

Starting with the goals, we had 285 forwards projected for at least 10 goals. In reality, the 2024-25 season saw 284 forwards end up with at least 10 goals, though a lot more would have reached that mark had they been healthy (Tyler Seguin, David Perron, and Robby Fabbri, for example). Overall, here are the total projected goal totals for this group, their actual goals scored, and how those numbers work out on an 82-game basis:

I over-shot the average 82-game goal-scoring projection by about 11.4%. Why did that happen? (may23)

[Follow the link for more…]

7. It happens every year: Players who have improved underlying numbers that suggest they should be having productive fantasy seasons, but for whatever reason(s), they don’t. That is why it’s worth going through some players who genuinely made improvements in some key underlying stats but didn’t have the fantasy production to go with it. 

How about we start with the forwards who, per the tracking data, added at least 10% to their rates of offence created both off the rush and off the cycle/forecheck? Readers will notice that a lot of these players – Alex Laferriere, Barrett Hayton, Kent Johnson, Ryan Donato, Matt Duchene, Jake Neighbours, Matthew Knies – saw production improvements. Not everyone did, though, so let’s talk about three of them: (may22)

8. Lukas Reichel (Chicago Blackhawks)

There may not be a more fascinating player in the NHL right now than Lukas Reichel. He set a career-high with 22 points in 70 games this season but was skating on the fourth line for most of the season. He also improved his 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes (1.56) compared to the two prior seasons (1.23). However, often skating on the fourth line for a bottom-3 team in the league at the age of 22 is hard to classify as a successful fantasy season.  

The reason why Reichel is a fascinating player is because he saw improvements almost everywhere. In fact, there were eight tracking stats we looked at for this article, and they are as follows:

• Scoring Chance Assists (helpers on teammate chances)
• Scoring Chance Contributions (those assists plus individual chances)
• Rush Offence
• Cycle/Forecheck Offence
• High-Danger Passes (across the slot or from behind the net)
• Shots off High-Danger Passes (shots taken off those specific types of passes)
• Entries
• Percentage of Entries Carried In (may22)

9. Of those eight categories, Reichel improved in seven of them. The only one there wasn’t an improvement was his percentage of entries carried in, which fell from 70.9% all the way to… 68.1%. In that respect, he fell from 21^st in the league to 23^rd, so he basically maintained that carry-in percentage while improving everywhere else. In fact, the tracking data has Reichel’s 2024-25 season not far off from the season Kent Johnson had in Columbus.

Maybe this is a player who just has some specific skills that don’t translate to positive impact on the team (Andreas Athanasiou was like this). Given all these improvements, though, his genuine ability to enter the zone with control, and the fact he’s been stuck on a god-awful team for his entire career, this is a player I would bet on.

Summer could be very telling here. Reichel has one year left on his current RFA deal, so maybe Chicago wants to give him one last chance, but this is the type of player a rebuilding team not named The Chicago Blackhawks should kick the tires on. (may22)

[Follow the link for more…]

10. Scott Morrow made his NHL playoff debut, going minus-three in the Game 1 loss to the Panthers. He played about 12 minutes, which was last on the team among defencemen. He added two shots with one penalty. Alexander Nikishin had a similar debut statistically, sans the minuses. 

In the regular season Morrow had six points in 14 games, but he’s not a great source of peripherals. Next season with both Dmitry Orlov and Brent Burns possibly leaving as free agents, there could be a few spots open on the blueline. Alexander Nikishin is likely the front runner for a full-time spot, being more physically mature than Carolina's other prospects, but Morrow has a real claim to a spot too with his junior and AHL pedigree. Domenick Fensore would be the other internal candidate, and while as an older prospect who is also a right shot he could have the inside track, his height often leads to questions about how well he could handle the rigors of the NHL. 

At this point, there’s also a very real possibility that the Canes add a defenceman or two into the free slots, pushing Morrow back to the AHL for one more year. That seems like with most teams it would be the most likely outcome, but with Carolina, they try to make space for the young players to earn spots (like Blake last summer). I would put the odds of Morrow having a regular role with the Canes next year at a little over 50% right now. (may21)

11. I’m seeing a lot of articles about the Leafs and how this is the end of the Core-Four era, and how they have to move on from at least two or three of them, etc etc. Maybe they do, maybe they shouldn’t, but I expect there will be some changes, and at least discussions in the front office about what major moves could look like.  

I wanted to take this real-life example to illustrate how you can adjust the top end of fantasy teams either in-season in any league, or at any point in a keeper league.

If you’re stuck with a core that you just can’t seem to get over the hump with and want to try and address different categories, someone who isn’t always injured/resting during fantasy playoffs, or just to make a change, then you’ve looked at moving on from your best player or players. (may21)

12. It’s hard to move on from one (or more) top-20 player without losing the deal, and it’s even harder to get back something that makes your team better. There are ways to do it though, and about none of those avenues start with diving head-first into a trade. Wading in is the way to go, by letting the league know that a star player could be moved so that everyone can put forward an offer. It’s always possible someone oversteps and knocks your socks off.

Internally, you need to be looking first at what the player is that you’re trying to trade. Let’s take Auston Matthews as an example. He’s a Rocket Richard winner who plays a very good two-way game as a big centre, and at 27-years-old is currently in his prime with three more seasons on his current contract. He has also dealt with some injury issues, and now has a label of not being to close out big games in the playoffs.

No, instead of pigeon-holing yourself into needing a specific piece or type in return, it’s better to keep the possibilities open and look around the league at who would need or want this particular asset. The best bet would be to find a team that is also looking for a shake up, and has a key star player (or two) that would make sense to bring in as a replacement. (may21)

13. Looking around the league, the top teams like Colorado, Dallas, Florida, and Tampa likely wouldn’t push hard for Matthews to the point of paying enough, while other teams like Vegas, Carolina, Washington, Los Angeles, and Edmonton wouldn’t have the right fit for a Matthews trade (I’m not sure Matthews for Leon Draisaitl really changes things enough for either team as an example). Then below those teams in the standings, the up-and-comers (Buffalo, Detroit, Utah as examples) aren’t desperate enough to mortgage their core or future for a star who is three years away from both free agency, and turning 30.

That leaves you with a few middle teams who would be your best bets to find a deal. I would be looking at Vancouver, Nashville, Minnesota, and maybe Winnipeg. At this point you can start setting your sights on the possible key pieces of a return from each team, which would likely be something along the lines of Pettersson and/or Hughes from Vancouver; Forsberg and the 2025 5^th overall pick from Nashville; Kirill Kaprizov from Minnesota; or likely something starting with Toronto-area-born Mark Scheifele from Winnipeg. Maybe there’s an option with a gigantic futures package from Minnesota with Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, Danila Yorov, and more, but that’s not likely the direction that Toronto wants to go, as they want to win now, which necessitates the star names listed above. (may21)

14. Perhaps the most interesting option would be a deal of Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson for Mathews and something. It gets Matthews out West, while Vancouver brings in a replacement star for Hughes, who the Canucks are worried will be leaving after two more years anyways, in order to play with his brothers in New Jersey. The Leafs would add a dynamic top defenceman, something they have sorely lacked, and they replace at least Matthews’ upside on offence with Pettersson. None of these players are necessarily winners in the playoffs yet, but those types of players are locked up by teams that aren’t desperate enough to move them, so it may just be too much of an ask.

None of this happens though without understanding what kind of asset you have, and who would take the risks associated. An American star with only three years left until both free-agency and his 30^th birthday? That’s a bit of a dangerous combination that would likely take both Winnipeg and Vancouver out of the running if it weren’t for the fact that Vancouver might be losing Hughes in only two years anyways.

I’ll likely have angered two vocal fanbases with this one, but the theory behind it, and how you can use that framework to better approach your bigger offseason deals, is still very valid. (may21)

15. Toronto lost Game 7 to Florida and there is already a lot of chatter about what should happen this summer. With John Tavares and Mitch Marner as free agents, there are clearly a couple of critical topics to cover.

One thing worth mentioning is the blue line. Writing about fantasy hockey year after year helps notice trends with teams across the league. One thing about Toronto defencemen is they just don’t get involved in the offence. Consider that over the last four years, Toronto defencemen are dead last by both goals scored and shots:

On top of that, Toronto’s defencemen are ninth by total assists despite the team being third by total goals in the those four years (two fewer goals than Colorado and six fewer goals than Edmonton). Teams don’t need a ton of scoring from the blue line, but they do need something.

Let’s put it another way. How about we rank each team’s defence group 1-32 by each of total goals, assists, and shots over the last four seasons. Then we average out those ranks across the three categories. Sounds good? (may20)

[Follow the link for more…]

16. Change will be harder to escape this time around in Toronto as Mitch Marner and John Tavares are entering free agency. I think Marner is an excellent two-way player, but after falling short of expectations so many times in the playoffs, it’s clear Toronto isn’t the right market for him. 

Based on post-game responses, it seems Tavares has a greater desire to stay in Toronto than Marner right now. Of course, there will be other factors like cap space to consider.  (may19)

17. Speaking of free agents, Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies will be restricted free agents this summer. Robertson can’t be happy with the lack of opportunity he’s seen in Toronto, but perhaps there’s room for him in the top-six with Marner likely gone? Marner’s departure also opens up a spot on PP1, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Leafs decide to fill that hole. Marner posted around 30 power-play points a year in recent seasons, so his absence could hurt other members of PP1 if adjustments aren’t made – but I’m sure we’ll dissect that more this summer.

Regarding Knies, that’s a player Toronto will do everything to keep long term because the skill, finishing ability, and effort level he displayed this postseason were all top tier. He played through an injury in Games 6 & 7, but was consistently a force to be reckoned with before that. (may19)

18. In Thursday's Ramblings last week, we looked at the changing shot, goal, hit, and block rates across the league both at 5-on-5 and at all strengths. Those things were also dissected by position, and there are some very interesting results. Be sure to check it out.

Today, let’s look at something else and it’s the role of younger players in the league. We are using data from Evolving Hockey and going back to the start of the 2013-14 season. We are also excluding the shortened 2019-20 campaign and the Bubble 2021 season, so there are 10 total seasons looked at here.

To start with, it’s clear that teams and coaches are using younger forwards far less often than they used to. Each of the last four seasons has seen the total number of games played by attackers in their age-21 season or younger fall under 3000, after six straight seasons from 2013-2019 above 3000, and a few of them above 4000. (may20)

[Follow the link for more…]

19. Last week, we started talking about players that got hot late in the regular season, potentially increasing their fantasy stock for the upcoming campaign. Here are a few more players who fall in that category: 

Elias Lindholm 

Elias Lindholm paced for 60 to 80 points in five-straight seasons with the Flames. Since then, he’s failed to crack a 50-point pace in back-to-back campaigns, bouncing from Calgary, to Vancouver, to Boston. That’s the surface-level story, but a deeper look provides a source of optimism. 

Lindholm’s first year with the Bruins was a disappointment overall, but he showed new life down the stretch with 11 points in his final 11 appearances. During that period, he spent most of his minutes beside David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie on Boston’s top line. Through 79 minutes together, that trio outscored the opposition 16-4, dominating opponents in shot attempts and high danger scoring chances (via Natural Stat Trick). Now, the sample is relatively small, and results are skewed by an unsustainably on-ice shooting percentage of 31%, but with such favourable results, there’s good reason for that trio to reunite next year (assuming Geekie re-signs as an RFA). Lindholm is Boston’s second-highest paid forward at $7.75 million a year. Even if he isn’t part of the team’s long term plans, it makes sense to put him in a position to succeed so that they can get some return on their investment. He’s carried momentum from the regular season into the IIHF World Championship, where he’s tied for the tournament lead in scoring (as of Sunday night) with ten points in six games. Who else has a share of that lead, you ask? Czech superstar and Bruins’ linemate David Pastrnak. (may19)

20. Will Smith 

This past year was a big one for Will Smith as he celebrated the release of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. You may think I’ve confused the 20-year-old hockey player with the 56-year-old Hollywood star, but Bad Boys: Ride or Die is actually my name for the Sharks’ duo of Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. Those two flashed some impressive chemistry down the stretch, enabling Smith to rack up 30 points in his final 34 appearances while averaging 17:40 a night. It was a massive step up from Smith’s first 40 outings, where he tallied a modest 15 points and was limited to 14:19 per game. San Jose has a long way to go, and Smith has more to learn, but he’s shown he can produce offensively in the big leagues. He’ll benefit from sharing the ice with one of the NHL’s top young talents in Celebrini. (may19)

21. Matvei Michkov

A 63-point campaign from a 20-year-old rookie is outstanding, but doesn’t quite capture how bullish you should be on Michkov based on his performance down the stretch. He racked up 29 points in his final 27 games of the season (1.07 p/g), skating over 18 minutes a night and averaging 3.4 shots per game. That stands in stark contrast to his first two thirds of the campaign, which featured 16 minutes, two shots, and 0.64 points per game. Michkov’s ice time was especially limited in the middle stretch of the season, as coach John Tortorella tried to rein in the youngster’s riskier playstyle, attempting to fit it into the team’s more structured, defensively responsible system. The thing is, new coach Rick Tocchet’s style is more similar to Tortorella’s than it is different, which means Michkov probably won’t get complete freedom to reach the height of his offensive potential. That being said, we’ve seen what Michkov is capable of when given enough opportunity. If his defensive game can mature to a point where Tocchet is comfortable enough with the risk/reward ratio that he’ll roll Michkov out for 19 minutes a night, then the young star should be a valuable asset in fantasy leagues next year. (may19)

[Follow the link for more…]

—

Have a good week, folks!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.