No matter how dialed-in we are heading into drafts, poring over rankings, building our own projections, and locking in sleepers, every season delivers a handful of breakout performances that catch everyone off guard. We are talking about players who did not just beat expectations, they shattered them. Some came out of the late rounds and returned first-round value, others went from waiver wire afterthoughts to lineup staples after a heater that never cooled off.

I dug into NHL.com’s fantasy preseason point projections for the 2024–25 season (available for both forwards and defensemen) totalling a pool of over 260 skaters. From that group, these 10 players over the age of 25 stood out as the biggest winners, some of them outperforming their projected totals by 20 points or more, and some were not even on the list.

Enjoy!

10. Clayton Keller – Utah Mammoth

       Projection: 80 points

       Point Total: 90 points

The move to Utah has sparked a noticeable uptick in production, and Clayton Keller remains at the center of it. In his first season with the Utah Mammoth, Keller posted 90 points in 81 games, outperforming his 80-point projection while adjusting to a new market and team structure. He remains the offensive focal point, carrying over his top-line role seamlessly following the relocation from Arizona. As one of the few veterans on a young roster, Keller continues to solidify his value as a consistent, high-end producer. His ability to deliver elite results year after year makes him one of the more dependable fantasy options in the league.

9. Zach Werenski – Columbus Blue Jackets

    Projection: 65 points

    Point Total: 82 points

Zach Werenski reasserted himself as a top-flight blueliner this season, posting a career-high 82 points (23 goals, 59 assists) across 81 games, his first point-per-game season. He became just the second Blue Jackets defenseman to reach the 80-point mark and did so while logging 26:45 per night, an increase of nearly two minutes from last season. He was used in all situations, he averaged over 2:40 on the power play and handled 36.3% of penalty kill time. Werenski's offensive instincts drove Columbus' transition game and power-play success. Most importantly, he stayed healthy, allowing his true upside to shine. Werenski has re-established himself as a top-10 fantasy defenseman with a stable floor and high-end ceiling.

8.  Pius Suter – Vancouver Canucks

     Point Projection: Not Ranked

     Point Total: 46 points

Pius Suter quietly put together a 46-point season while filling a dependable middle-six role in Vancouver. Unranked in most drafts, he proved useful, particularly during the stretch when Elias Pettersson was out. Suter added timely offense, saw brief PP1 and PK stints, and averaged a career-high 17:21 TOI. His 18.1% shooting percentage stood out, but it did not feel completely out of place given his expanded usage, including 1:21 per game on the power play. He also held value in multi-cat formats, especially ones counting face-off wins. While he is unlikely to be drafted next fall, knowing what he can offer if injuries strike or if he lands alongside top talent gives him some quiet watchlist appeal.

7. Mikael Granlund – Dallas Stars

    Projection:  55 points

    Point Total: 66 points

Granlund quietly delivered another impressive season to date. He split his time this season between San Jose and Dallas, posting 22 goals and 44 assists over 83 games split between the two. His 66-point total was the third-highest of his career as he maintained a solid 0.8 points-per-game pace and benefited from improved deployment from both teams, including consistent power-play time. He shot 13.1 percent on 168 shots and averaged nearly 19:30 per game while contributing on both special teams. Not to mention his strong playoff performance this season. Now 13 seasons into his NHL career, Granlund’s resurgence should earn him attention again, especially in deeper formats where steady production holds value.

6.  Brandon Hagel – Tampa Bay Lightning

     Projection: 73 points

     Point Total: 90 points

Brandon Hagel hit another level this season, posting career highs with 35 goals, 55 assists, and 90 points over a full 82-game slate. He averaged over 20 minutes a night and saw heavy usage in all situations, logging 58.1% of Tampa's power-play time and 44.2% on the PK. At even strength, he led the Lightning with 83 goals-for despite starting just 42.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Skating alongside Point, Kucherov, and Guentzel certainly helped, but Hagel held his own and meshed seamlessly with Tampa's top core. Even if the PP volume stays modest, his all-situations role and pace make him a strong bet to stay fantasy-relevant.

5.  Martin Necas – Colorado Avalanche

     Projection: 60 points

     Point Total:  84 points

The move to Colorado unlocked Martin Necas' ceiling, as he shattered his 60-point projection with 84 points, firmly establishing himself as a breakout threat out West. He already had top-six deployment in Carolina, but skating alongside Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado's high-tempo system took things to another level. His speed, shot, and offensive instincts fit seamlessly, and he wasted no time adapting.

Though part of his production came with the Canes, the Avalanche clearly maximized his value. With term left on his deal, top-six minutes locked in, and prime PP1 usage, Necas now carries legit top-75 fantasy value, with 80+ point upside well within reach if he sticks in that role, which seems likely.

4. Dylan Strome – Washington Capitals

    Projection: 66 points

    Point total: 82 points

What if I told you at the start of the season that Dylan Strome would end up as Washington's point leader? I would not have believed it either, but that is exactly how things played out. Strome finished with a career-high 82 points in 82 games and turned into a late-round fantasy gem. He stepped up as a top-line fixture, showing great chemistry with Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson. His 19.6% shooting rate blew past his 15.4% career average, despite putting just 1.8 shots on goal per game. That level of efficiency along with other underlying metrics is hard to trust long term, but Strome made the most of the role he was handed and knocked it out of the park.

3. Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets

    Projection: 80 points

    Point Total: 97 points

Connor reminded everyone exactly who he is this season. After posting 61 points in just 65 games last season due to injury, he returned in full force, delivering a career-high 97 points with 41 goals and 56 assists across all 82 games. His 1.18 points-per-game pace matched his 2021–22 peak and firmly reestablished him as one of the league's most reliable and explosive offensive wingers. Connor did not just meet expectations, he crushed them. Preseason projections had him around the 80-point mark, making this year a massive fantasy win for anyone who may have snagged him a few spots later in their drafts.

2.  Morgan Geekie – Boston Bruins

     Point Projection: Not Ranked

     Point Total: 57 points

Geekie was one of Boston's quieter wins in 2024-25, putting up 57 points in 77 games while stepping into a bigger role amid lineup turnover and a soft retool. He took advantage of the chaos, injuries, roster movement, and a team shifting direction and noticeably elevated his game in the back half, showing sharper puck distribution and better finishing touch. His 0.74 points-per-game was a clear jump from previous years, though a 21.9% shooting clip throws up the classic red flag. Some regression feels inevitable, but if Geekie holds a top-six role, especially next to David Pastrnak, a 45-50-point follow-up is very much in play.

1. Ryan Donato – Chicago Blackhawks

       Point Projection: Not Ranked

       Point Total: 62 points

Ryan Donato was value gold this season, racking up 62 points in 80 games on a thin Chicago roster, more than doubling his output from the past two seasons combined. If you scooped him early, you likely rode some found money. He made the most of a bump in role, averaging 16:19 TOI and seeing PP1 time alongside Connor Bedard, which led to 14 power-play points. Donato also posted 182 shots and a 17% shooting rate, well above his 11.1% career norm. He has proven he can finish in a middle-six scoring role, but with UFA status pending, his value will hinge heavily on where he signs.

Thanks for reading! See you next week! For more fantasy hockey content and analysis, follow me on X @Punters_hockey. If you have any questions about your team or a trade? My DMs are always open — happy to help!