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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced an extension for centre Yanni Gourde, signing him for six more years with a cap hit of $2.33M annually. Gourde turns 34 years old in December and had 14 points in 21 games with the Bolts following his trade from Seattle at the deadline. He looks pencilled into a third-line role, but he was used in the top-6 during that run at the end of the regular season.

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In yesterday's Ramblings, we went over the MVP candidates of the regular season among forwards. Today, we are moving onto defencemen.

These two articles are the capstone of Ramblings over the last month that looked at preseason projections for forwards and defencemen, the changing NHL environment, and what it all means for fantasy owners. Those Ramblings can be found here:

• Forwards who underperformed goal-scoring projections.
• Forwards who overperformed goal-scoring projections.
• Forwards whose goal-scoring landed close to their projection.
• Forwards who underperformed points projections.
• Forwards who overperformed points projections.
• Forwards whose point production landed close to their projection.
• Defencemen who underperformed points projections.
• Defencemen who overperformed points projections.
• Defencemen whose point production landed close to their projection.

After those comparisons were done, we moved to how the NHL changed in the 2024-25 season. This is what we looked at:

• Declining shot totals, changes in block/hit numbers, and improvement in bottom-6 scoring.
• Production and usage changes from young players in the league.
• Players who saw some key improvements but did not produce well.

Finally, we finished with how those changes affected my projections:

• Goals from top-6 forwards, declining power-play production, and how the power plays affected the top players.
• Goals and assists from defencemen, and the rising middle/lower class of point-producing blue liners.

With all that recapping out of the way, we are moving to the blue line to see which were the most valuable defencemen.  

For this, we are going to focus on value – the 15^th overall pick performing as the 8^th overall pick is great, but having guys that are 10^th or 15^th-round picks perform as third- or fifth-round picks is what we have in mind. We are also going to limit it to players who played at least 60 games, or about three-quarters of the season. That gives us 164 defencemen to work with.

To do the value calculations, we are going to try to get everything to one number. This is how we're going to do that:

• There were 958 goals from the 164 defencemen in this sample, or an average of 5.8 goals per defenceman. We are going to award or subtract 0.17 points for every goal above or below 6 goals scored (1/6).
• There were 3484 assists from the 164 defencemen, or an average of 21.2 assists per defenceman. We are going to award or subtract 0.05 points for each assist above or below 21 helpers (1/21).
• This process will be repeated for shots (0.01), hits (0.013), blocks (0.01), and power-play points (0.2).
• We are going to add the fantasy points from each category to get us to one number. Then we're going to multiply their average ADP across CBS, Yahoo, and ESPN (per FantasyPros) by that number of fantasy points to get to an overall value.

This is not a perfect measurement, of course, because ADPs will vary wildly between leagues with different settings, and value will differ depending on whether they're roto, head-to-head, or points leagues. It also doesn't fully account for positional scarcity, which is something to keep in mind. There are also a lot of players without an average ADP, and we'll discuss them later.

Here are the most valuable defencemen, based off across-the-board production and their average ADP, from the 2024-25 season.

To start with, of the defencemen who registered an ADP (around the top-300 picks including forwards and goalies), one stood above the rest but there were three at the top:

Lane Hutson (Montreal Canadiens)

We discussed Hutson in the Ramblings covering Defencemen Who Overperformed, so we won't go long here. He didn't bring a lot in shots or hits, but the blocks and goals were fine, and both the assists (tied for second among blue liners with 60) and power-play points (tied for fifth among blue liners with 26) made up for a lot. Considering where he was drafted, there is good reason to believe Hutson was the most valuable fantasy defenceman, even in some multi-category formats.

Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Setting aside my personal projections, before the season, my thought process on Werenski was like this: from 2021-2024, he was tied for seventh among defencemen by even-strength points per 60 minutes, was ninth among defencemen in overall ice time per game, but averaged just 15 power-play points every 82 contests. What if A) he stayed healthy, and B) Columbus had a moderately respectful power play? Well, he stayed healthy, and the team scored more PP goals per minute in Werenski's ice time than any season since his rookie year. Add a bit of luck, and we get this 2024-25 season.

Jake Sanderson (Ottawa Senators)

Sanderson reached 30 power-play points, just one of two defencemen to reach that mark (Cale Makar, 35, though Quinn Hughes had 29 in 68 games). He was also 1 of 7 defencemen to reach at least 10 goals, 40 assists, and 190 shots. Sanderson totaled 57 points in 80 games, and he did it with 17 points at 5-on-5, or as many as Emil Lilleberg and Joel Edmundson. Ottawa really struggled to score at 5-on-5 (only Nashville had fewer goals at that strength), so if the team can turn that around somewhat in 2025-26, there is a 60-point season on the menu for Sanderson.

Jakob Chychrun finished fourth by our value rankings among defencemen, and then there was a group of seven who were all close together:

We have already discussed Seth Jones (here) in an earlier Ramblings, so let's talk about a few of the others.

MacKenzie Weegar (Calgary Flames)

Weegar wasn't going to replicate the 20 goals scored from the year before, but he was still a peripheral monster and was in line for top power-play minutes. That worked out as he had a career-high in assists (39) on the back of a career-high in power-play points (21 with 17 helpers). The peripherals were also there as he had the most combined shots, hits, and blocks (597) of any defenceman in our sample. He could have a similar season next year, unless Zayne Parekh and Hunter Brzustewicz have anything to say about it.

Jake Walman (San Jose Sharks/Edmonton Oilers)

Going to San Jose was, predictably, great for Walman's fantasy value as he saw a huge jump in overall ice time due to the rebuilding nature of the team and was their most-used power-play defenceman. He had as many power-play points in 50 games with the Sharks (7) as he had in his 202 career games before that. However, he missed some time due to injury and then was traded to Edmonton. He won't be a top power-play guy with the Oilers, so even if they're a high-scoring team at 5-on-5, it puts a 50-point season in serious doubt for 2025-26.

Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth)

There may have been a bit of concern about Sergachev splitting or losing power-play duties to Sean Durzi, but an injury to the latter early in the season quelled all that. The result was Sergachev posting the second-best fantasy season of his career. He also had just 29 points at even strength, which was tied for 25^th among defencemen. If Utah is better at even-strength scoring next year (they were 22^nd this season), Sergachev is another rearguard who could crack the 60-point plateau.

Of the defencemen without an ADP, Jackson LaCombe was far ahead of everyone else by total fantasy points. After him, there was a very interesting trio:

Alex Vlasic was reviewed in an earlier Ramblings (here), so let's go over the other two.

Mason Lohrei (Boston Bruins)

With Charlie McAvoy missing so much time, Lohrei had the reigns of the top PP unit, especially after the Four Nations break. That resulted in him putting up six power-play points over the final 25 games of the regular season. Assuming McAvoy gets a crack at the top PP unit again, it could be tough sledding for Lohrei. He would be no higher than the number-3 blue liner overall behind McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, and Boston was brutal offensively in 2024-25 whenever David Pastrnak was off the ice. Lohrei showed well on the attack this season, but he hasn't shown much for peripherals yet. If he's no higher than the number-3 defenceman, won't have the first go at the top power-play unit, Boston has one good scoring line, and the peripherals don't pick up, it's hard to see Lohrei having significant fantasy value in 2025-26.

Matt Grzelcyk (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Hands up everyone that thought Grzelcyk and Erik Karlsson would both play a full 82-game season, and they'd end up tied for power-play points with 15 each? That's what I thought.

It is hard to make heads or tails of this, and we probably need to wait and see what the offseason brings. There have been rumours about Pittsburgh potentially moving Karlsson, and even if they don't, they are sure to add to the blue line anyway. Keep in mind that Grzelcyk reached 40 points, the first time in his career, at 31 years old, and had 94 shots and 43 hits. Without that power-play production, there isn't a lot here, but kudos to anyone that grabbed him off the waiver wire a month or two into the season.    

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