Ramblings: Offseason Targets for the Chicago Blackhawks, Minnesota Wild, Utah Mammoth, and the Central Division – June 10

Michael Clifford

2025-06-10

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Washington Capitals forward TJ Oshie announced his retirement on Monday. The 38-year-old Oshie missed the entire 2024-25 season with a nagging back injury, and had missed 92 games over the three seasons before that, so this was just a player who had seen his physical health decline to the point where returning to the NHL was not realistic.

Oshie finishes his career with 302 goals and 393 assists in 1010 regular season games, 34 goals and 35 assists in 106 playoff games, a Stanley Cup ring from 2018, as well as being a member of Team USA's World Junior, World Championship, World Cup, and Olympic rosters at various points.

From a fantasy perspective, Oshie was often in the very good-not-great category, reaching both the 30-goal (33 goals in 2016-17) and the 60-point (60 in 2013-14) plateaus just once each. However, he averaged 26 goals, 33 assists, 18 power-play points, 171 shots, 99 hits, and 47 blocks every 82 games from 2013-2021. Those are solid across-the-board contributions for a decade and reflect him being a similar type of player on the ice. All the best to him and his family in retirement.

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We had what could best be described as a circus between Edmonton and Florida in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final as Florida laid the wood to Edmonton by a 6-1 margin, even as the score was just 2-1 in Florida's favour early in the second period. There were seven power plays in the first period alone (eight if we count Anton Lundell's penalty after the period had ended) and a total of 17 (not a typo) power-play opportunities overall in the game. That is largely because the third period completely fell apart as the Oilers' frustrations boiled over which resulted in a line brawl and several misconducts. Some games can be described as a Mona Lisa, whereas this one was like when Marge Simpson was shot in the face with a makeup gun.

Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, and Evan Rodrigues each had a goal and an assist in this game with both of Rodrigues' points coming on the power play. Those were the first two points for Reinhart in the final as he managed four shots, three blocks, and a hit in the win.

Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand both scored, because of course they did, while Aaron Ekblad (PP) had the other tally. Bennett finished with two shots, 14 penalty minutes, and six hits.

Not to be lost in the gongshow that was Game 3, but Sergei Bobrovsky was excellent in this one, stopping 32 of 33 shots faced for the win. Despite giving up four goals in each of the first two games, he sports a .928 save percentage through three games against Edmonton.

Corey Perry had the lone goal for the Oilers, scoring early in the second period on the power play. He finished the game with five shots and a hit, and is up to nine goals in 19 playoff games thus far, trailing only Bennett (14) and Leon Draisaitl (10) in playoff goal scoring.

Stuart Skinner was pulled after giving up a power-play goal early in the third period, allowing five goals on 23 shots overall. Calvin Pickard entered the game and gave up one PP goal on eight total shots. Edmonton goaltenders faced 31 shots in Game 3 and 14 of them were on the penalty kill. Not great.

Game 4 goes Thursday night in Florida.

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We have spent the last 6-7 weeks reviewing the NHL season, be it assessing projections, looking at changes to shot, hit, and block counts, the role of young players, or fantasy MVPs (the links for all those Ramblings are contained here). We are going to continue that looking-back trend but with an eye to the future. This current batch of Ramblings will assess the weaknesses of each team that led to subpar/disappointing fantasy performances and how those weaknesses can improve in the offseason either via trade or free agency. This is going to be division by division, and we already did the Pacific Division, so let's move to the Central Division.

Chicago Blackhawks

When a team struggles to score at 5-on-5 (Chicago finished 26th), it can be an issue with puck-moving from the defencemen. That was true for Chicago, per the tracking data from All Three Zones, though with caveats. The tracking had them sixth in the league for percentage of zone exits with possession, and in the middle of the league by both rate of failed zone exits and carrying the puck on zone entries. Setting aside offensive playmaking, the Blackhawks weren't stylistically far off one of the West's playoff teams:

Guys like Alex Vlasic, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, and Kevin Korchinski looked like they'll be part of a young, already-fine defence group that will keep improving.

However, we can't just set aside offensive playmaking. Separating the league into the top-11 teams whose defence groups led by assists on teammate scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and then the bottom-11 teams, we see there's a stark difference in goals-for per 60 minutes:

In 2024-25, teams averaged about 4032 minutes at 5-on-5 for the season. The gap between the two goal-scoring averages means about 18-19 goals more per team for the top-11 group than the bottom-11 group, or over 200 goals total. That is a lot of goals.

That is why it's important to note that Chicago defencemen were dead last in the league by rate of assists on teammate scoring chances at 5-on-5 this season. Worse than teams like San Jose, Detroit, and Calgary. Not a great spot to be in.

That is also why it's tough to say if they should address it via trade. They have a lot of young players that will improve in the seasons to come, but it will take years for them to all peak at the same time. It seems unlikely Chicago will make a big splash in free agency or via trade. Maybe they take a chance on someone like Oliver Kylington or Mike Reilly, hoping they can make a bottom-pair impact on offence, but that is likely the extent of it.  

Colorado Avalanche

Since Nazem Kadri left Colorado, the team has had a rotating door of second-line centres. It started with J.T. Compher, then went to Casey Mittelstadt and Ross Colton, then Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle after the deadline this season. Nelson looked a lot better once Gabriel Landeskog returned, so that the team re-signed Nelson makes me think they saw the same thing. A healthy Landeskog with Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Martin Necas (if he's not traded) would make for an excellent top-6 forward group.

Assuming the Avalanche re-sign Sam Malinski, they have 12 forwards, six defencemen, and two goalies signed for the 2025-26 season. The only players without some sort of trade protection are Nečas (which is why his name appears in trade rumours) and Cale Makar, who is not being traded. So, unless Nečas is moved, the lineup is likely set.

Dallas Stars

It will be an interesting offseason for the Stars because all of Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene, and Cody Ceci are free agents. All three forwards normally played on one of the teams top three lines while Ceci was a top-4 defenceman. Dallas also has under $5M in cap space, and both Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist as restricted free agents. If the Stars are lucky, they'll have about $2M in cap space to replace three top-9 forwards. Good luck!

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The good news is there isn't a lot that needs to change. Dallas was a top offensive team, particularly when they were healthy, and had a lot of strong underlying metrics to back it all up. Defensively, though, they did allow a lot of chances at 5-on-5 as their opponents had the fifth-highest rate of scoring chances off their zone entries. Only Buffalo, San Jose, Anaheim, and the New York Islanders were worse:

Dallas has very little money to spend, so this needs to be thrifty, and I'll suggest Calvin de Haan here. He has generally been fine at limiting opponent zone entries and is a passable puck-mover as a bottom-pair option. At the least, he's an upgrade on Matt Dumba.

Minnesota Wild

It is really hard to get an accurate assessment of the Wild given all the injuries they had to key forwards and defencemen. With that said, remember the scoring chance assists we talked about with Chicago defencemen? Looking at the forwards this season, Marco Rossi was below the league average, his second year in a row doing so. Over those two seasons, Minnesota's goal-scoring has cratered when Rossi is on the ice without Kirill Kaprizov whereas their goal scoring when Kaprizov is on the ice without Rossi is identical:

Rossi is an RFA who turns 24 years old in September, and Minnesota finished 31st in 5-on-5 goal scoring this season, 24th the year before, and 29th the year before that. With the prohibitive Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts mostly coming off the books, the team being good otherwise, and Rossi needing an extension, a big decision has to be made this offseason.

Assuming the Wild hang onto Rossi, they need more scoring depth. Young Buffalo winger JJ Peterka has had his name in trade rumours since during the 2024-25 season and would fill an offensive need the Wild have. It would take a hefty return (and they're already missing their 2025 first-round pick) but it would greatly help both their 5-on-5 scoring and their power play.  

Nashville Predators

We will get to the big weakness, but the Nashville offseason is a key one for the franchise. After the marquee free-agent signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, Nashville had its worst season, points percentage-wise, in over 20 years. Both those signees are going into their age-35 season, as is Roman Josi, while Ryan O'Reilly will be 34 years old. This is an aging team that just had an awful year, so they have to decide if they want to give it one more shot or blow it up and start thinking about five years down the road.

Scoring at 5-on-5 was the problem for Nashville in 24-25, finishing a distant dead last by goals per 60 minutes. While there was some bad luck, it is worth noting that they finished 27th by high-danger passes per 60 minutes (passes across the slot or from behind the net), and the vast majority of teams around them aren't exactly 5-on-5 juggernauts, with one exception:

Nashville has a good amount of cap space (PuckPedia has them with over $17-million in space) and no key signings to make. They can take another big swing in free agency with a big name like Mitch Marner or Nikolaj Ehlers. They can also try to nibble around the edges with guys like Mikael Granlund or Ryan Donato. In their own way, each player can help rejuvenate the team offensively. But it's worth wondering if they should do any of that and just ride out the storm, hoping to land a top pick in the 2026 Draft, and trying one more kick at the can with a super-prospect (which they're currently lacking).

St. Louis Blues

St. Louis made a lot of improvements under head coach Jim Montgomery, and they got big seasons from offseason acquisitions Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. One area they struggled, though, was creating offence off the forecheck: Blues forwards had the sixth-largest gap between offence off the cycle/forecheck and offence off the rush:

They did make playoffs, and there are a pair of two really good teams on there in Dallas and Edmonton, both of whom created a lot off the rush. Dallas still created over 16% more offence off the cycle than St. Louis, though, and Edmonton has two of the top four forwards in the league. Regardless, the Blues may want to balance their attack a little bit more.

Taking off Torey Krug's cap hit of $6.5M, the Blues have about $11.5-million in cap space and need to sign Joel Hofer (or another backup goalie). They do have space to make a meaningful signing, though, so they should go after a free-agent forward (or two) who can really help with that forecheck but not break the bank with their signing. Reilly Smith and Ryan Donato make sense here as middle-6 options that can be signed to a short-term deal (2-4 years), fit into their cap scheme, and help with that forechecking aspect.

Utah Mammoth

Utah is in an interesting spot. With some more internal growth and contributions from Daniil But or Dmitri Simashev, this is a team that should push for a playoff spot in 2025-26 as it is. They also have no key free agents leaving or key RFAs to sign (though Logan Cooley is eligible for an extension). There is also over $20-million in cap space to play with, though Jack McBain is an RFA (Evolving Hockey has his contract projection at two years for a little over $3M per season). If they want to go after a big free agent name, they can make a pitch for any player they want.

There isn't much for glaring weaknesses here. The areas they lagged (5-on-5 scoring, goals against on the penalty kill, most key tracking stats) were, at their worst, about league average, and could easily improve just with the young stars themselves improving. With basically their entire roster returning, this is more about strengthening those mid-range stats than trying to repair a specific spot where the team is awful.

I do wonder what happens in net. Because of Conor Ingram's leave of absence during the season, Karel Vejmelka started every single game from February 23rd until April 12th, a span of seven weeks. The hope is that Ingram is 100% ready for the 2025-26 season, but it also highlights that if anything happens to either Ingram or Vejmelka, be it injury or otherwise, there is no one else the organization trusts to even make one start every two weeks. Going out to add a veteran goalie like Jake Allen might be on the menu.

Winnipeg Jets

With Nikolaj Ehlers being a free agent, Cole Perfetti at good-but-not-elite status, and Winnipeg otherwise not having a high-end second-line centre in a long, long time, finding secondary scoring this summer should be team's top priority for an acquisition.  

However, the team also needs to find someone to play with Josh Morrissey. There had been a number of years of success for the Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo pairing but this season saw Morrissey post better results at 5-on-5, across shot attempt share (CF%), shot share (SF%), expected goal share (xGF%), and goal share (GF%), with anyone but DeMelo as his partner:

The pair was still good together, but if DeMelo takes another step back, then the problems are really going to start, and the team cannot afford to not prepare for that possibility.

This where I think Vladislav Gavrikov makes a lot of sense. He has shown the ability to play extremely well on the right side as a left-handed blue liner, fits in with Winnipeg's defence-first approach, and can even chip in a bit offensively. He will be a popular commodity, but this would help shore up the top pair, perhaps give DeMelo a chance to find his game in a lesser role, and provide some much-needed depth to the defence group. Though with seven defencemen signed to NHL contracts (eight once they extend Dylan Samberg), they might just run back the same defence group.

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