In today's Ramblings, we'll discuss players who had disappointing regular seasons, and then we'll evaluate their bounce-back potential for the upcoming campaign.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – Buffalo Sabres – G

The 2023-24 campaign was UPL's first crack at carrying a heavy workload and he excelled, posting a 2.57 GAA and .910 SV% through 54 games. Unfortunately, he couldn't build on that momentum this season, finishing near the bottom of the league with a 3.20 GAA and .887 SV% through 55 appearances. Now, GAA and SV%, while popular metrics of goaltending in fantasy formats, don't paint an accurate picture of a goalie's individual performance because they're heavily influenced by team defense. To better understand how the team played in front of UPL, we can look at Buffalo's expected goals against. Both this season and last season, the Sabres ranked bottom-10 in expected goals against per 60, with a rate of 3.17 xGA/60 this year and 3.21 last year (via Natural Stat Trick). The fact that Buffalo's defense was so bad last year but UPL still managed to post a respectable GAA and SV% highlights his individual talent and the level of play he's capable of. Reinforcing that idea of strong individual play last year, he posted 22.46 goals saved above expected – ranking sixth in GSAx across the league. This year, his individual play fell off a cliff as he finished with 8.77 goals saved below expected (via Evolving Hockey).

At 26, UPL is pretty young for an NHL goaltender. Young goalies often need time to develop in the big leagues and it's plausible that this season’s struggles represent a learning year, so I'm optimistic UPL can bounce back. He showed in his first season as Buffalo's starter that he's capable of playing well over a large sample, even in difficult circumstances where the team in front of him is making his job harder. I think he has the talent to post solid numbers again next year, and there's room for his situation to improve if the Sabres make moves to get better defensively this summer. The one wild card to watch out for is highly touted Devon Levi, who has put together a couple of strong years in the AHL and may be ready for a 1B role next year. Some goalies appreciate a long string of starts to stay in form but that might not be an option for UPL, who may need to share the net with Levi next season.

Carter Verhaeghe – Florida Panthers – W

After posting back-to-back 70-point campaigns, Verhaeghe fell short of expectations this season with an underwhelming 53 points.

Heading into this season, Verhaeghe boasted a career shooting percentage of 14.9%. That's over a trustworthy sample of 330 games. This year, he scored on just 8.3% of the shots he took. To me, that suggests he fell victim to bad luck and should be set to bounce back next year.

While his individual shooting percentage is one indicator of bad luck that won't last, the team's shooting percentage with him on the ice is another. During Verhaeghe's 70-point seasons, he spent most of his even strength minutes beside Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. That line thoroughly outplayed opponents and posted an on-ice shooting percentage of 10%  over the past two seasons (via NaturalStatTrick). Now, this season, Verhaeghe spent most of his minutes beside Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. That trio also thoroughly outchanced opponents but only scored on 6% of the shots they took, a cruelly unlucky fate given the immense shooting talent those three possess. Now, I know what you're thinking. Barkov is thought of as a shutdown center, so maybe Verhaeghe was given more of a defensive assignment this year and that caused his offensive output to suffer. However, that theory doesn't hold much weight because both the Tkachuk line and Barkov line took a similar proportion of faceoffs in the offensive zone (~60%).

Now one more thing I wanted to point out pertains to the power play. Last year, Verhaeghe tallied 21 points with the man advantage and was on the ice for 61% of Florida's total time with the man advantage. This year, he managed just 16 PPPs with a 54% share of team PP time. This troubling trend of reduced power-play deployment has extended into the postseason, where Verhaeghe's PP share has dropped to 48%. Looking ahead to next year, I'm confident his even-strength production will bounce back as he's freed from the shackles of a bad luck shooting percentage, but power-play production will be less of a guarantee.

Kirby Dach – Montreal Canadiens – C/W

Injuries are understandably a major concern for Dach, who has appeared in just 117 of a possible 246 games (48%) over the past three seasons. I still see top-six potential, but shaking off the rust after so much time off and then staying healthy long term represent sizable hurdles which other fantasy options don't have to face. Although Dach may have had top unit power-play potential with Montreal in the past, his lengthy absences have allowed the likes of Patrik Laine and Ivan Demidov to pass him in the PP1 queue. Barring an injury to Montreal's usual PP1 personnel, Dach should spend most of the year on PP2, making it very difficult for him to match the 16 PPPs he posted in 58 games two years ago. Health concerns and suboptimal power-play deployment aside, Dach could provide surprising fantasy value if he ends up clicking with budding star Ivan Demidov at even strength.

Trevor Moore – Los Angeles Kings – W

From a 30-goal/57-point pace last year, to a 20-goal/46-point pace this season. Why did Moore produce less?

One answer to that question is decreased opportunity as Moore went from 18 minutes a night last year to just under 17 this year. His average power-play ice time per game was 35 seconds lower than last year, resulting in three power-play points instead of seven. Having less time on the ice can mean fewer opportunities to shoot the puck, but a one-minute drop in ice time can't be the sole explanation for Moore posting just 2.2 shots per game this year after tallying 3.0 last season. I think there's a better explanation for Moore's decline in shots and point production: he was hindered by an injury. He missed seven games with a mysterious upper-body injury in December – one of those injuries that's indefinitely labelled day-to-day. He returned to the lineup on January 4th and struggled that whole month, posting just two points over 12 appearances, averaging a measly 1.33 shots per game. Outside of that stretch, Moore scored at a more respectable 53-point pace, with 2.32 shots per game. So, yes, he did still shoot less than in recent years, but the drop off becomes a little less drastic when you consider his numbers may have been affected by an injury. With a clean bill of health next season, I'm optimistic Moore can get back to a 55-point pace, with over 2.5 shots per game.

Brady Tkachuk – Ottawa Senators – C/W

After pacing for 70+ points in each of the last three years, Ottawa's captain took a step back this season with a 62-point pace. We know that he suffered a hip injury at the 4-Nations faceoff in February, but looking at his production before and after that tournament, there isn't really a pattern to suggest his injury stifled his offensive output. Rather, I'd propose that what really hindered Tkachuk was a spell of bad luck.

From October to December, Tkachuk posted a respectable 35 points in 36 games. During this time, he sported an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.65% at even strength. Meaning that for every 100 shots Ottawa took while Brady was on the ice, roughly 10 resulted in goals. In the second half, Tkachuk posted just 20 points in 36 games, with a surprisingly low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.87% (via Natural Stat Trick). 13 of those 20 points were goals, so Tkachuk was still creating offense himself, but with just seven assists, his linemates weren't converting as often as you'd expect. 37-year-old Claude Giroux, who shot less this year and managed just six goals in his final 45 appearances, may have hindered Tkachuk in this regard.

With a new season, better luck and better health, I expect Tkachuk to bounce back offensively. Even if he doesn't return to point-per-game form, he's worth targeting in fantasy formats for his elite contributions to hits, shots and PIM.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week :)