Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Right around this time every year I use this column to focus on goalies, rather than skaters, instead making this "Goaliepucks and the Three Netminders." The same standards that normally apply still apply here as well, except to goalies in lieu of skaters, with the three I selected being Filip Gustavsson, Logan Thompson, and Adin Hill. See if you can successfully apply what you've learned in being loyal Goldipucks readers to guess which goalie had a 2024-25 that was too hot, versus too cold or just right, and then find out if you got enough correct to earn a Quality Start or instead are saddled with a Really Bad Start.

Filip Gustavsson (58 GP, 31 W, 5 SO, 2,56 GAA, 0.914 SV%)

Grabbed in the second round in 2016, Gustavsson spent parts of five seasons in the AHL. By 2022-23 though, he'd fared well enough, and the Wild had such tight salary constraints, that he earned the back-up gig. To say he thrived would be a vast understatement, with 22 wins in 39 games plus a GAA of 2.10 and SV% of .930. But he faltered majorly in 2023-24, such that for 2024-25 many felt Jesper Wallstedt could displace him as back-up to Marc-Andre Fleury. Instead, Gustavsson bounced back and seems to have a firm grip on Minnesota's starting job. But might he take another step back in 2025-26? Or could he fare even better? When the dust settles on 2025-26, expect Gustavsson to see modest improvements.

Looking first at Quality Starts, Gustavsson's 69.0% was second among the 22 goalies who played 50+ games, only behind Connor Hellebuyck. But it was higher than any 50+ game goalie since 2021-22. Who had higher rates that season? Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin, who both have fared worse in subsequent seasons. So having a QS% as high as he did is great, since it means he is for sure very talented; but it likely has only one way to go, which is down. But his 13.8% Really Bad Start rate was higher than those two in 2021-22, and thus is an area where he can make strides, especially since in two instances he had back-to-back Really Bad Starts, indicative of lack of experience. As such, I'd say Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts together should result in no marked changes to his key stats for 2025-26.

In weeks where he didn't have those consecutive Really Bad Starts, Gustavsson was elite, as only Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy had more "Star Weeks" weeks (defined as having at least two wins and a SV% 2% or more above the league average). Also notable was that he had a .924 even strength SV%, fourth best among 22 goalies who played 50+ games, and this despite an overtime SV% of .765, which put him only 14th among those 22 goalies. This segues to an area of note, which is Minnesota will be able to spend freely this summer for the first time since Gustavsson became a regular, with the likely result being a boost to Gus' stats as well.

It is also good to see that Gustavsson had numbers that were almost identical both home and away, unlike Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, who fared far better at home. This would suggest Gustavsson would be more likely to maintain his performance level in the normal course, but perhaps see it bolstered due to, as noted, the Wild improving as a team.

What is also positive is the lack of variation between Gustavsson's SV% on different days rest, as it was between .914 and .917 with one, two, and three days rest. Given that a starter will normally see action most often following those numbers of days rest, that is a very good sign. With zero days rest though it dropped to 0.857% and with more than three days rest it was lower too at 0.903%. But in this day and age, it is rare for a goalie to play on back to back days or have a gap of four or more days between starts. So this level of consistency in his SV% is strongly indicative of Gustavsson being poised to remain a stable, consistent starter in 2025-26.

Gus also could see more wins in the normal course, as his shootout SV% was only .667. It can only improve, and, in doing so, get him more wins, which also could occur due to, as noted above, a better OT SV% and Minnesota getting better as a team. His SV% in the third period also was a lot weaker at only 0.904%. All these strike me as areas that will improve over time, and he has the more important things already going for him as listed above, plus the fact he was one of just three goalies, with yet again Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy being the only others, who played in 50+ games and had at least double the number of games with a SV% of .950 or better versus games with a SV% of .850 or worse.

It is also amazing that Gustavsson had as many wins as he did, since the Wild, who as a team only averaged 2.78 goals per game, which was seventh worst in the NHL, averaged an even lower 2.52 goals per game when Gustavsson was in the crease, which is a lower rate than the lowest rate for any team as a whole. This speaks to just how great he was, and how he should especially be due for more wins as Minnesota's spending helps boost its offense.

Gustavsson's 2024-25 stats already put him among the elite goalies in the NHL, and the team around him only stands to improve, perhaps vastly. Also, his weak points are areas which are likely to progress with time and experience. As such, Gustavsson's 2024-25 was somehow TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 3.25, as he is likely to fare even better due to strong metrics and his team scoring more.

Logan Thompson (43 GP, 31 W, 2 SO, 2.49 GAA, .910 SV%)

Undrafted, Thompson spent time in the AHL and ECHL before finally getting inked to an ELC by Vegas during the summer of 2020. From there, he appeared in one 2020-21 game, then 19 contests in 2021-22, and 38 in 2022-23, faring quite well along the way. He saw his GP increase yet again in 2023-24 to 46 in total, winning 25 games. But with Vegas committing to Adin Hill, Thompson asked to be dealt, and found himself on Washington, where he tallied an amazing 31 wins despite playing only 43 contests, earning himself a six year deal paying him $5.85M per campaign. Can he improve, or at least keep pace with his 2024-25 stats? Most likely the latter.

Even though Thompson kept winning as the season wore on, his peripherals were markedly worse in the second half, i.e., after he inked his new deal at the end of January. Did he ease off the gas pedal? Did teams figure him out? Either way, it was not reassuring, as was the fact that even after signing that size of a deal he did not start more than two games in a row the rest of the season, this after being in the crease for seven straight contests earlier in the month of January. This is worrisome, since although $5.85M is definitely a good chunk of money, it's in the same neighborhood as what Tristan Jarry, Philipp Grubauer, and John Gibson are being paid and they could not maintain a vice grip on starting roles.

On a positive note, like Gustavsson, Thompson had twice as many games with a SV% of .950 or higher as compared to ones of .850 or less. But Thompson had markedly better numbers away than home, which, if anything, is cause for optimism, since many a goalie thrives at home while struggling on the road. Thompson also had a lofty 62.8% Quality Start %, good for fifth best among the 30 goalies who appeared in at least half of their teams' games in 2024-25. Like Gustafsson though, Thompson's Really Bad Start percentage was a bit high at 14.0%, although two of his six RBSs came in his last three starts of the season, perhaps making them easier to excuse.

Similar to Gustavsson as well, Thompson's even strength SV% was higher, at .918; yet in the case of Thompson his PK and PP SV% were only good enough to finish in the middle of the pack. And although Thompson came up huge in the third period, with the third best SV% among the 30 goalies who saw action in 41+ games, he faltered majorly in OT, with the fifth worst SV% at 0.688, giving up five OT goals. But that can only rise, and is almost a good thing to see, since although it is unlikely Thompson would've won such a high percentage of games in the normal course next season the fact he lost six games in overtime should offset or come close to offsetting fewer wins in regulation.

Also, although at first Thompson's mere four star weeks seems low, everyone behind him other than Joseph Woll had at least four more games played, with the majority all having over 50. And no goalies who had more did so in fewer games, with only Linus UIlmark and Jacob Markstrom doing so without appearing in 50 games. Like Gustavsson, Thompson had strong save percentages with one and two days rest, which are most common for a true starter. His SV% slid to .907 for three days rest, and .897 for four or more. Still, this is the kind of direction one wants to see for a presumed starter, and bodes well for continued success. And Thompson was stronger in the shootout, stopping 80% of the shots he faced.

It is worth noting though that the Caps averaged a staggeringly high 3.93 goals per game in contests that Thompson started, versus their 3.51 goals per game rate overall. Still, it's likely that he'd have won most, if not all, of his games had the Caps only scored at their normal rate, which was second highest in the NHL, so this might be less consequential than it might seem. Also, Thompson did as well as he did despite facing an average shot distance that was eighth lowest in the NHL. It likely can't get much worse though, which is a positive.

Despite imploding after inking a large deal, and still not being treated as a true starter, chances are that was a blip in the radar, versus an ongoing concern, as Thompson's stats check out. And with Washington an up and coming team, he should be able to continue to thrive. But unlike Gustavsson, I'd expect more of the same, rather than some improvement, making his 2024-25 JUST RIGHT and earning him a rating of 5.5, or right down the middle.

Adin Hill (50 GP, 32 W, 4 SO, 2.47 GAA, 906 SV%)

Although he made his first appearances in the NHL in 2017-18 at age 21, it took Hill until this past season to appear in half his team's games, as for a number of seasons he was a solid performer but one who could not convince his team to turn to him as a starter, such that by the time 2021-22 concluded, all it took for Vegas to snag him in trade was a fourth round pick. But Hill appeared in 27 contests in 2022-23, then 35 in 2023-24, resulting – as noted above – in him being the anointed starter for the 2024-25 season. Can Hill improve, or at least maintain his mainly strong stats in 2025-26? I wouldn't count on it, as signs point to him doing worse.

Hill had by far his worst quarter in Q1, giving up 4+ goals in six of his first ten games, and then thereafter only doing so six more times in his next 40 appearances. Also, his GAA of 2.47 was strong, ranking him fifth best among the 22 goalies with 50+ appearances. Yet his SV% of .906 put him tied for ninth with two other goalies. Of those with a higher SV% than him, the lowest Quality Start Percentage was 59.3%, whereas Hill's was 52.0%, which ranked him eighth worst among those same 22 goalies. How is this possible? It's largely due to Vegas facing only 26.0 SOG per game, which was fourth lowest of all NHL teams. It meant Hill didn't give up many goals, but his SV% and QS% were worse than his GAA. That is of concern, since SV% and QS% are far more reliable indicators of a goalie's ability to continue to succeed, since unlike GAA they are not as dependent on shots faced.

Hill played better at home as far as GAA and SV%, but somehow worse in QS%. This is not ideal, as he seemingly won at home despite poorer stats overall. On a somewhat positive note, he had only one "Really Bad Week", meaning he was rarely bad for a sustained period of time, even factoring in his awful start to the season. Also, his .913 even strength SV% represented a nice uptick from his overall SV%. He also came up clutch, with a third period SV% of .917, although in games that went to OT his SV% was only in the middle of the pack.

More evidence that Hill benefitted from the team in front of him is that his expected goals against, among all situations, ranked fifth best among the 22 goalies who played 50+ games. Vegas should still be a strong team in 2025-26; however, with talks of Alex Pietrangelo going on long term IR, he could be put into less favorable situations, which is of concern in view of his numbers having been benefited quite a bit by the team in front of him.

Hill did not do himself any favors in the shootout, earning zero shootout wins and saving barely half the shootout shots he faced. But he appeared in only three shootouts, so this might not result in a meaningful boost in wins if he normalizes.

Of most concern when it comes to Hill though might be his SV% on different days rest, as he was at .886 with one day rest and .906 at two days. His SV% jumped to .922 with three days rest, was .909 with four or more days rest, and .958 when he started back-to-backs. Given that his worst SV% numbers coincided with the periods of time most likely to occur between when a #1 goalie would start, that is worrisome. Moreover, although he had 14 games with a SV% above .950, he had ten with a SV% below .850. This reinforces that he might not be able to thrive if (when?) he is called upon to face more shots.

When we peel back the onion on Hill, we see a goalie who righted his ship quite well after a very shaky start to the season. But he also is someone who did not face a lot of rubber due to the team in front of him, which is something far more likely to not recur than to continue. Also, his save percentage was its worst on one or two days rest, which would coincide with the highest frequency of instances when a true #1 would be called upon to be the starter. The takeaway from Hill’s 2024-25 is that he was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.25, as he should be due for his numbers, including winning percentage, to take a hit.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.