Draft picks have long been one of the most debated commodities in the NHL, prized by teams seeking the elusive edge that could transform their futures. While the idea of pick valuation isn’t new—Eric Tulsky notably introduced a market-driven framework a decade ago – there remains significant room for refinement, particularly as the NHL evolves rapidly in terms of player characteristics, talent evaluation, and strategic priorities.

Inspired by Tulsky's seminal work and Harvard Sports Analysis’ influential study on NFL draft picks, this article revisits and expands upon these foundational ideas using a comprehensive modern dataset and enhanced analytical visuals. Why does draft value need a fresh look? Simply put, the NHL landscape has drastically shifted. Teams now emphasize speed, agility, and skill over raw physicality. As the game evolves, so too must our understanding of draft capital, bringing it closer to actual on-ice value rather than relying solely on theoretical trade metrics.

To gather these insights, data was sourced directly from the NHL API, pulling comprehensive career statistics for each drafted player. Using Python, the dataset was processed and visualized to identify and interpret emerging trends in player performance across draft positions.

Weight and Height Trends by Draft Round (2000–2024)

Analyzing the trends from 2000 to 2024, we clearly observe that the NHL is increasingly favoring smaller players, reflected distinctly in height and weight trends. Defensemen, in particular, are noticeably shorter, highlighting a strategic shift toward agility and skill over sheer physical presence. Interestingly, this trend contrasts significantly with goaltenders, who continue to get taller year after year. Teams appear to have optimized their scouting and drafting strategies, selectively targeting physical attributes that align closely with their playing style preferences.

Similarly, a consistent downward trajectory in players’ weights further reinforces the shift toward a lighter, faster-paced game. The average player weight has dropped dramatically—by nearly 20 pounds for some draft rounds—illustrating a pronounced preference for speed and endurance over bulk. Goalies, however, have maintained relatively uniform weights, suggesting a consistent physical profile still deemed ideal by teams for this specialized position.

These evolving physical profiles underscore a more deliberate and strategic approach to drafting, as teams increasingly target specific player archetypes to fit their modern tactical systems.

Games Played vs. Overall Pick

As we examine the relationship between games played and overall draft position, a clear pattern emerges: the later the pick, the fewer games played on average. This simple insight underscores the declining probability of drafting an NHL regular as teams progress deeper into later rounds.

Points Per Game vs. Overall Pick

Turning to the points per game versus overall pick visualization, we gain deeper insights into player productivity relative to their draft positions. In the skater analysis, forwards and defensemen are depicted distinctly, with forwards represented by circles and defensemen by triangles. Notably, forwards drafted in the first round frequently achieve impressive productivity levels, often surpassing the 0.6 points-per-game mark—a threshold close to star-level performance, typically recognized around 0.7 points per game.

This clear downward productivity trend emphasizes the significant value found in early draft selections, especially for forwards. Defensemen follow a similar but slightly lower trajectory, indicating positional differences in scoring expectations. The goal remains consistent: to draft players who exceed the league average productivity for their position.

Goalies, however, display a different dynamic, characterized by a distinct ‘half-pipe’ shape. Early draft picks indeed offer better outcomes, yet goalies selected in later rounds also frequently experience considerable success. This indicates a less pronounced correlation between draft position and long-term performance for goaltenders compared to skaters, suggesting that goalie scouting and development may offer greater variability and opportunity throughout the draft.

Together, these visual insights affirm the importance of drafting strategies tailored specifically to positional expectations and historical performance trends.

Draft Capital Analysis (2000–2024 and 2025)

Looking at draft capital from 2000 to 2024, we identify the top five teams with the most accumulated picks: Columbus leads with 187 total picks, followed closely by Chicago with 224, Buffalo, Anaheim, and Arizona. Conversely, the teams with the fewest accumulated picks during this period, excluding expansion franchises, are Pittsburgh, Boston, Toronto, Vancouver, and Tampa Bay.

The visualization highlights significant variations in draft strategies among teams—some emphasizing early-round picks, while others find success in later rounds. This strategic diversity underscores how different organizations value draft capital differently, reflecting varying scouting strengths and development philosophies.

For the 2025 NHL draft, the Philadelphia Flyers emerge as the clear leaders in draft capital, positioning them to significantly reshape their roster. They are closely followed by Nashville, Chicago, San Jose, and Pittsburgh. Interestingly, comparing each team’s draft capital against a default scenario—maintaining all original picks—reveals a clear divide. Teams positioned as Stanley Cup contenders, such as Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, Florida, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay, notably possess lower draft capital, having leveraged these assets for immediate competitive success.

Below is a detailed breakdown of each team's picks for the 2025 NHL Draft:

Anaheim Ducks

Number of Picks: 7

Picks: 1:10, 3:72, 4:104, 4:116, 5:136, 5:159, 7:200

Boston Bruins

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:7, 2:51, 3:69, 4:100, 5:133

Buffalo Sabres

Number of Picks: 7

Picks: 1:9, 2:39, 3:71, 4:103, 4:116, 5:135, 7:195, 7:199

Calgary Flames

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:18, 1:32, 2:54, 3:80, 5:144

Carolina Hurricanes

Number of Picks: 4

Picks: 1:29, 3:87, 3:189, 7:221

Chicago Blackhawks

Number of Picks: 6

Picks: 1:3, 1:25, 2:34, 2:62, 3:66, 4:98, 4:107, 7:194, 7:197

Colorado Avalanche

Number of Picks: 2

Picks: 4:118, 7:214

No First Round Pick: No picks in rounds 1-3

Columbus Blue Jackets

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:14, 1:20, 3:77, 4:109, 6:173, 7:205, 7:218

Dallas Stars

Number of Picks: 4

Picks: 3:94, 4:126, 5:146, 5:158, 6:190

No First Round Pick: No picks in rounds 1-2

Detroit Red Wings

Number of Picks: 6

Picks: 1:13, 2:44, 3:75, 3:76, 4:119, 5:140, 7:204, 7:211

Edmonton Oilers

Number of Picks: 3

Picks: 3:83, 4:117, 6:191, 7:223

No First Round Pick: No picks in rounds 1-2

Florida Panthers

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 4:112, 4:128, 5:129, 5:160, 6:192, 7:224

No First Round Pick: No picks in rounds 1-3

Los Angeles Kings

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:24, 3:88, 4:120, 5:152, 7:196, 7:216

Minnesota Wild

Number of Picks: 3

Picks: 2:52, 5:141, 6:180

No First Round Pick: No picks in rounds 1, 3-4

Montreal Canadiens

Number of Picks: 8

Picks: 1:16, 1:17, 2:41, 2:49, 3:79, 3:81, 3:82, 4:108, 4:113, 5:145, 6:177, 7:209

Nashville Predators

Number of Picks: 6

Picks: 1:5, 1:23, 1:26, 2:35, 3:67, 5:131, 6:163

New Jersey Devils

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 2:50, 3:90, 4:99, 4:114, 6:161, 6:178

No First Round Pick: No picks in round 1

New York Islanders

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:1, 2:42, 3:74, 4:106, 5:138

New York Rangers

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 2:43, 3:70, 3:89, 4:111, 5:139, 6:166, 6:171, 7:203

No First Round Pick: No picks in round 1

Ottawa Senators

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:21, 3:96, 4:97, 5:149, 6:181, 7:213

Philadelphia Flyers

Number of Picks: 7

Picks: 1:6, 1:22, 1:31, 2:36, 2:40, 2:48, 3:68, 5:132, 5:157, 6:164

Pittsburgh Penguins

Number of Picks: 7

Picks: 1:11, 1:12, 2:59, 3:73, 3:84, 3:85, 4:105, 5:130, 5:148, 6:169, 7:201

San Jose Sharks

Number of Picks: 7

Picks: 1:2, 1:30, 2:33, 2:53, 3:95, 4:115, 4:124, 7:210

Seattle Kraken

Number of Picks: 4

Picks: 1:8, 2:38, 2:57, 4:102, 5:134, 7:198

St. Louis Blues

Number of Picks: 3

Picks: 1:19, 5:147, 6:179

Tampa Bay Lightning

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 2:56, 3:206, 4:127, 5:151, 7:193, 7:212, 7:215

No First Round Pick: No picks in round 1

Toronto Maple Leafs

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 2:64, 3:86, 5:137, 5:153, 6:185, 7:217

No First Round Pick: No picks in round 1

Utah Mammoth

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:4, 2:46, 3:78, 4:110, 5:142

Vancouver Canucks

Number of Picks: 4

Picks: 1:15, 2:47, 3:65, 3:143, 6:175, 7:207

Vegas Golden Knights

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 2:58, 3:91, 4:122, 5:154, 6:186, 6:187

No First Round Pick: No picks in round 1

Washington Capitals

Number of Picks: 5

Picks: 1:27, 2:37, 3:93, 4:123, 5:155

Winnipeg Jets

Number of Picks: 4

Picks: 1:28, 3:92, 5:156, 6:188, 7:220

This is just the beginning. In future editions, I'll dig deeper into the mechanics of draft value—exploring things like hit rates, ROI by position, and how trade behavior aligns (or doesn't) with actual on-ice outcomes. There's plenty more to unpack, and I'm always open to exploring angles that readers are curious about. If there's something you've always wondered when it comes to draft picks—value drop-off points, positional trends, team-by-team patterns—let me know. The more questions, the better the insights. Thanks for reading, and I'll be back soon with more.