One of the worst-kept secrets of the free agency period thus far was the landing spot for Nikolaj Ehlers. While there had been a few teams rumoured to be in the running to sign the winger, it was evident that the Carolina Hurricanes would flex their oodles of cap space and Stanley Cup-contention status to sign the top non-Marner winger on the market. He is indeed a Hurricane now, signing a six-year deal:

Ehlers has 49 goals and 124 points over the last two seasons despite skating under 16 minutes a game. He is going to a Carolina team laden with scoring wingers all over the place. Let's break it down.

What Carolina Gets

The main thing Ehlers brings offensively is… well… everything. Or nearly everything. He shoots, he assists, he is good on transition play, and is a very shifty skater. As for the production over the last three years, here are the two comparable wingers by goals and primary assists per 60 minutes at even strength (from Evolving Hockey):

It is partly why he's been such a frustrating player to have in the fantasy game. Those three years have seen him average 15:48 per night. At even strength in that span, he averaged 13:18 per game. To put that into perspective, it's less than Josh Anderson (13:19) and Max Domi (13:25). And it isn't as if it's empty production, as the Winnipeg Jets drove both expected goals and actual goals differentials at their highest rate when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. We can quibble about his forechecking or grittiness, but the fact remained that the Jets were considerably better off with him on the ice than any of their regular forwards, and it's not even close. He just had to stay on the ice, as he missed over 20% of Winnipeg’s games in the last four years.

In Carolina, he is not going to be the top winger. That is still Seth Jarvis. After that, though, there is Andrei Svechnikov, who had an excellent playoff but a poor regular season. It isn't hard to see Ehlers becoming the team's number-2 winger, though it's likely he and Svechnikov flip that spot for years to come.

The real concern is where Ehlers slots in the lineup itself. If he goes right to the top line with Sebastian Aho, then great. That's tremendous news. If he slots next to Jesperi Kotkaniemi? Well, he's not much better off than he was in Winnipeg. And with Jarvis showing so well next to Aho over the years, Svechnikov having that role often during his career, and Jackson Blake at times last season, it's far from a certainty that Aho ends up Ehlers's primary centre.

Also, keep in mind that Ehlers was on Winnipeg's top PP unit in 2024-25. That helped him to a career-best 22 power-play points. He is going to be on the top PP unit in Carolina, but it's not as if he gets a sudden boost in PP upside: Aho led their forwards with 23 PP points last season, so gauge expectations for Ehlers accordingly.

Maybe Ehlers adds about a minute of EVTOI per game, and maybe he gets some time with Aho. But this isn't a guy who's suddenly going to play 19:30 a game. He is probably going to be around the 17-minute mark, and while that's clearly good news for fantasy managers considering where he usually is, he’s not adding 3-4 minutes a game.

This is absolutely brutal news for the fantasy upside of Blake and Stankoven. There is now a genuine top-3 winger mix of Jarvis-Svechnikov-Ehlers, and everyone else like those two, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Martinook are in a clear tier below. This gives the team a lot of depth throughout the lineup, but it's going to keep them from the ice-time jump to where Ehlers is going to be.

Same for the power play. It seems likely that Carolina at least starts with the quartet of Aho, Jarvis, Ehlers, and Svechnikov, and the first three are locks. Maybe Blake or Stankoven swap for Svechnikov at times, but it's not a case where we write them in for 200 power-play minutes.  

It is good news for Aho. We will have to see where everyone lines up, but he seems assured to have at least one of Ehlers or Jarvis on his line at all times. It gives him a tremendous offensive winger as long as everyone stays healthy, and maybe even two.

With Jarvis, Ehlers, Svechnikov, Blake, Stankoven, Hall, Martinook, William Carrier, and Eric Robinson, the team has their wingers all filled out. If any prospect wants to crack the roster (looking at you, Bradly Nadeau), it'll be at centre, and in the bottom-6.

Who This Helps

Sebastian Aho

Nikolaj Ehlers

Gustav Nyquist

Who This Hurts

Jackson Blake

Logan Stankoven

Taylor Hall