Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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1. With the salary cap rising this offseason, this season’s free agency period seemed more understated and even anticlimactic. With more cap room, more teams were able to re-sign their pending unrestricted free agents (nice bit of work, Florida) or they were able to take care of their business before the starting bell (Vegas and Mitch Marner).

As for the significant free agent signings that were, you can follow along on our Fantasy Take – Latest NHL Moves page.

It seems like the dog days of summer are upon us now, as news items to discuss will now be few and far between. To follow the most recent player news, you can check out the Frozen Tools NHL Player News feed. (july5)

2. Just as I did last season, let’s examine the potential fantasy value of the free agents that are remaining. Many teams still have plenty of available cap space, so at least some of these players should find a home soon.

Feel free to debate the categories I placed these players in. They are more blink of an eye choices as opposed to heavy analysis. In terms of fantasy value, these are players that you might add from the waiver wire at some point instead of drafting universally.

Players who could be fantasy relevant if signed: Jack Roslovic, Matt Grzelcyk, Victor Olofsson, Ilya Samsonov, Nikolai Kovalenko, Max Pacioretty : (july5)

3. Roslovic was in the same spot last year as a post-July 1 signing. Scoring at a 40-50-point pace, he could be described as a weak C2 or a strong C3. A team would be more assured slotting him in as a C3, since he can run very hot and cold. Roslovic started the 2024-25 season hot with nine goals in his first 12 games, yet he was colder than the month of January with a 12-game point drought that month. Carolina even made him a healthy scratch for a few playoff games.

Grzelcyk registered his first 40-point season in 2024-25 after the Penguins unexpectedly used him on the top power play at times over the more established Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. In fact, Grzelcyk ended up with the same number of power-play points as Karlsson (15 PPP) and more than Letang (12 PPP).

Vegas is too capped out to bring back Olofsson, but it’s worth mentioning that he scored six power-play goals in just 56 games with the Golden Knights this past season. A three-time 20-goal scorer, Olofsson has also scored at least seven power-play goals four times in his career. He has also averaged over two shots per game in his career. (july5)

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4. One signing I missed during free agent frenzy was Logan Stankoven being extended by Carolina for eight years with an average annual value of $6M. Stankoven has 136 career NHL games including playoffs and has 28 goals and 40 assists in those games. He is going into his age-22 season and this contract doesn’t kick in for another year, so this carries him through his age-30 season and his entire prime.

* Note: I wrote this all Thursday morning before Ehlers had signed. There is still a lot of reason to be bullish on Stankoven, just not for a little while. My write-up on the Ehlers signing can be found here.

Looking under the hood with tracking data from AllThreeZones, and Stankoven immediately stands out. Across the last two regular seasons, there are over 340 forwards with at least 300 minutes tracked at 5-on-5. Of those 340 forwards, this is the entire list of wingers who are at least one standard deviation above average (roughly the top 16% of forwards in the sample, or comfortably a top-line rate) by the following measures:

• Scoring Chance Assists per 60 minutes, or how often a player assists on a teammate’s scoring chance (SCA/60)
• Scoring Chance Contributions per 60 minutes, or those chance assists plus a player’s individual scoring chances (SCC/60
• Zone Entries per 60 minutes (july4)

[Follow the link for Mike's full analysis]

5. Brent Burns signed with Colorado on a one-year deal. You can read Ian’s fantasy take here.

This is probably the end of Burns’s true fantasy relevance. He doesn’t hit much anymore, his block rates have been declining with his drop in ice time, and he turned 40 years old back in March. Burns signed with a team that gives him a good chance at a Stanley Cup, but he’s also going to a team where he’s behind Cale Makar and Devon Toews, and probably Samuel Girard as well. That means somewhere between 17-19 minutes a game with, at best, secondary power play time. Maybe he puts up 30 points, but the lack of peripherals gives him very marginal fantasy value. (july4)

6. The New York Islanders signed another Russian free agent, one year after landing Maxim Tsyplakov, but signing Maxim Shabanov. Dobber’s fantasy take here gives a dive into what this means.

It seems a longshot that Shabanov stands out immediately. He clearly has high offensive skill, but he’s also 5’8 and translating those skills to the top league in the world. He is also doing that on an Islanders team that was 19^th by 5-on-5 goal rate last year. The Islanders also signed Jonathan Drouin, still have Anders Lee and Anthony Duclair, and that means a lot of competition for meaningful ice time. Even middle-6 minutes with secondary power-play time on this roster won’t produce a lot of points. Unless he blows the doors off quickly, it’s an uphill battle for him to be fantasy-relevant outside of dynasty formats or deep one-year leagues. (july4)

7. The St. Louis Blues signed Pius Suter to a two-year deal with a $4M AAV. Alex had a write-up on the fantasy impact here.

For me, this falls into the ‘better in real life than fantasy’ bucket. I think Suter is the ideal third-line centre for a team hoping not only to reach the playoffs again but maybe win a round or two. He is also versatile in that he doesn’t have to play centre, so if the Blues want to shift him to left wing for some games, he can do that. But he’s stuck behind Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn as centres, behind Pavel Buchnevich on left wing, and if Dylan Holloway builds off his breakout season, Suter is behind him, too. He seems locked into a third-line role barring injury, and that means marginal production and peripherals. (july4)

8. I’m kind of intrigued by Gustav Nyquist heading to Winnipeg. Right now, it seems like he’d slot into Nikolaj Ehlers‘s role on the second line, but part of me wonder if they don’t try him on the top line and move Gabriel Vilardi down to balance things a bit. Nyquist had a bad season in 2024-25, but he also did that playing for Nashville and Minnesota, teams that finished last and second-last by 5-on-5 goal scoring. The three years before that, he had very good playmaking and decent goal-scoring rates. He turns 36 years old in September, so maybe age will finally catch up with him, but he's going to a much better scoring environment than where he was last year. He won’t have relevance in shallow or mid-sized formats, but he absolutely can be a 15-goal and 50-point guy. (july4)

9. While this may not have been the most impactful offseason of the last 10 years, there was one of the most impactful trades of the last decade with Mitch Marner heading to Vegas in a sign-and-trade from Toronto. At the time of the trade, Brennan had his thoughts on the deal here.

Today, I want to give my fantasy hockey thoughts on the deal because this one has a lot of ramifications. There may not have been a single trade more impactful trade since Matthew Tkachuk went to Florida.

First is usage. Brennan alluded to the fact that Marner could be used on the second line with Tomas Hertl and I think that’s something we will see at times throughout the year. If I had to bet, sitting here today, I think Marner will see a lot more time with Eichel. That should help manage the drop in ice time that could come. Keep in mind that Marner has surpassed 21 minutes a game in each of the past three seasons and averaged 21:17 per game in that time. That is sixth among all forwards over that span and second among wingers. He likely stays as one of the most-used wingers in the league, but for a guy who doesn’t put up huge peripheral stats, any ice-time drop is suboptimal. (july3)

10. The next question is how things go next to Eichel. As good as Eichel is – and he’s a bona fide top-line star centre – he is not Auston Matthews. Matthews is first in the league by goals scored per 60 minutes (1.86) over the last three years and Eichel is 49^th at 1.25 goals per 60 minutes. The gap between those two rates of goals per game, assuming an 82-game season and 21 minutes per game, is about 18 goals. Marner typically averages an assist on 52% of the goals scored with him on the ice, so that’s nine fewer assists right off the top. Of course, it won’t work exactly that way, but Marner averages just over 100 points every 82 games skating to one of the two best goal scorers to enter the league over the last 15 years, so going anywhere else is going to hurt.

Then there is the question of how Marner fares away from Matthews just in general. At 5-on-5 across the last four seasons, Toronto generated more shots and more expected goals when Matthews was on the ice without Marner, and the actual goals scored declined just 3%. Conversely, Toronto’s rate of shots, expected goals, and goals scored declined considerably when Marner was on the ice without Matthews: (july3)

[Follow the link for more…]

11. Looking elsewhere for Wednesday’s news, Pittsburgh signed forward Anthony Mantha to a one-year deal: base salary of $2.5M and if he's healthy another $2M in bonuses is available to him.

Mantha was off to a solid start in Calgary with four goals and seven points in 13 games before a torn ACL ended his season. He gets a chance to recoup some value in Pittsburgh before the Pens move him at the Trade Deadline. His fantasy value will largely depend on what happens with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell because skating next to Sidney Crosby is the only way Mantha truly has fantasy relevance in most leagues.(july3)

12. Andrew Mangiapane also moved, heading to Edmonton on a two-year contract with an AAV of $3.6M.

It has been a while since his 35-goal season, and though he hasn’t even reached 20 goals since that career year, he scored 0.84 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in 2022-23, a solidly second-line rate, a low-end second-line rate. Those two years sandwich a poor 2023-24 season, but now he’s in Edmonton and with both Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson moving on, and Jeff Skinner still not signed, Mangiapane could very well fill a second-line winger role next to Leon Draisaitl. He won’t get top PP time, but he might get an elite centre to skate with at even strength, and that’s something. (july3)

13. Former Los Angeles winger Arthur Kaliyev has a new home: Ottawa.

Kaliyev played just 14 games in 2024-25 due to injury, and it was with the New York Rangers, but he also scored very well in his limited action with three goals in those 14 games while skating just 11:13 per night. The issue with going to Ottawa is they have a third line of Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Greig that the coaching staff really seems to like, and each of Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux are locks for the top-6. That leaves one spot open, likely on the second line, for one of Kaliyev, David Perron, and Fabian Zetterlund. Two of those players are going to be relegated to the fourth line, so Kaliyev is in tough to have any fantasy value even if he plays well. (july3)

14.  It’s a little strange doing Ramblings for the day after free agency opens, as all of the news is pretty well covered in other fantasy take articles (which you can find here). Cliffy did an awesome job basically covering the whole day himself, so stick taps to him.

I will say that I do like what San Jose has started to do this summer, bringing in a few players on short-term deals that can fill in around the edges, help the team be a bit more competitive, but also end up being trade bait in February to bring in more assets. All three of their moves today, between Philip Kurashev, John Klingberg, and Alex Nedeljkovic, only cost them a third-round pick and some cap space they weren’t using. 

In a few months, they can re-sell those players for more, and then end up farther ahead (asset-wise) than they were in June. That’s how you manage a team through aa rebuild, and that’s how you allow your team to make a step or two forward when the young core is ready. Obviously most of their young players aren't ready to anchor a playoff team at this point, but this is the best way to grow them into being ready is to help prop them up to that level of competition for a while. Take notes, dynasty managers. (july2)

15. It’s nice that the Canucks seem to have some confidence in Thatcher Demko, as indicated by the three-year extension, with a big $8.5 AAV. It bodes well for the outlook of him hopefully staying healthy, which is the biggest knock on him at the moment. If he is healthy then he has a real claim to being a top-five goalie in the league. Not great news for Kevin Lankinen owners, and it begs the question as to why the Canucks felt they had to sign him to such a big contract. (july2)

16. Looking at the draft, the first couple of picks didn't really have any surprises, with the Islanders landing their new franchise defenceman in Matthew Schaefer, the Sharks taking the top offensive player in Michael Misa, and the Blackhawks betting on the size and skill of Anton Frondell to best complement their deep prospect pool in the long run. 

We could see Schaefer break camp with the Isles this year, as there is room on the left side of their D-core after Alexander Romanov and Adam Pelech. However, Isaiah George would do well on the third pair, so it all comes down to whether Schaefer is ready. The Isles aren't ready to compete next year, and Schaefer is one of the youngest players in his draft class. Having also lost most of a key developmental year to a broken collarbone, another season in juniors might really help him take off. 

All in all, I think it makes the most sense for the Isles not to rush Schaefer here, and let him dominate in the minor leagues for one more season before turning pro. What they do about their left side in the future remains up in the air though, as Pelech still has four years left on his deal, George is only 21, and Romanov just signed an eight-year extension. (july2)

17. When it comes to Misa and the Sharks, I also expect him to be given a year or two to marinate. Will Smith was given a similar treatment, and that trajectory seems reasonable for Misa as well as a similarly skilled and sized player. The Sharks certainly have no reason to rush Misa either, and that’s probably best for him to be able to hit his offensive ceiling which is likely the highest of anyone from the 2025 draft. 

Over in Chicago, Anton Frondell could be a bit of a different story, having pro experience already over in Sweden where he scored at an elite level even without taking into account he was a draft-eligible player. With the Blackhawks not exactly being flush with competition for spots in the top-nine, there is a real path for Frondell to stake out a spot and thrive as early as fall of 2025. 

Running down the rest of the top-10, picks four and five in the draft will likely be better in multi-category setups, and neither Brady Martin (Nashville) or Caleb Desnoyers (Utah) would be reliable bets to make the team next year. (july2)

[Follow the link for more…]

18. Dobber wrote his thoughts on Vladimir Tarasenko being traded to Minnesota. Maybe he has a rebound year, but he’s going to be 34 years old in December and is going to a team with Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov. If he doesn’t take the fourth wing spot in the top-6, he has no fantasy value, and relying on a 34-year-old to lock down one specific position for an entire season is unreasonable. (july1)

19. Matias Maccelli was traded by Utah to Toronto. Brennan offered his thoughts on the deal here.

Personally, I think Maccelli has all the tools necessary to be one of the top playmakers in the league. He had the same 5-on-5 assist rate from 2022-2024 as Robert Thomas and was higher than Jesper Bratt and Kevin Fiala. Then he had one down year and now he’s gone. With Mitch Marner moving on to Vegas, there is a need for a genuine playmaker in Toronto’s top-6 forward mix and Maccelli can be exactly that. It all depends where he lines up, but this is a player who could have a big bounceback year playing with the likes of Auston Matthews or William Nylander. (july1)

20. Florida made their signings as both Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand signed extensions with the team. The former for eight years at $6.1M, which is a steep discount, and the latter for six years at over $5M AAV. While the AAV for Ekblad is great, Marchand getting a six-year deal at 37 years old is kind of funny. It’s just a matter of when he becomes the newest resident of Robidas Island. (july1)

21. Today (Tuesday) is the last day on the 2024-25 NHL calendar, or the first day of the 2025-26 NHL calendar. However we look at it, free agent frenzy starts later today, and it’s one of the biggest days of the season. As we always do, the crew here at Dobber Hockey will have the fantasy impact of the big free agent signings as they happen. Though given all the movement and signings yesterday, maybe it’s a slow day.

Before today’s action kicks off, I want to give some thoughts on recent signings teams made of their own free agents, whether restricted or unrestricted. Player data from Evolving Hockey or Frozen Tools unless otherwise indicated. Contract data from PuckPedia.

Matthew Knies (W – Toronto Maple Leafs)

Toronto took the potential of an offer sheet off the table by signing Knies to a six-year extension with an AAV of $7.75M. The soon-to-be 23-year-old winger is coming off a breakout season with 29 goals, 29 assists, and 182 shots.

Knies has all the hallmarks of the bruising, scoring winger that the Leafs haven’t really had in the last decade. He is still approaching his prime, so things will only get better, but for now, it’s worth pointing out that his 5-on-5 production rates declined a fair bit over the last two seasons when he didn’t have Mitch Marner on the ice (from Natural Stat Trick): (july1)

[Follow the link for more…]

Have a good week, folks!

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