We're hard at work on the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, which is set to release on July 29! If you're in the market for player projections, sleeper picks, and so many nuggets of wisdom you'll think you're at a McDonald's in Harvard, then secure your copy at the Dobber Shop today! On the other hand, if you'd rather pay a fantasy league entry fee to lose perpetually and be on the receiving end of merciless trash talk next year, then please do not click the link above!

My section in this year's guide covered goalies to watch, so I thought I'd stay on theme and talk about a few goalies in today's Ramblings, particularly those recently ranked by NHL.com. Let me start by saying that coming up with rankings, especially for goalies, is a very difficult exercise and it's impossible to get every pick right. In pointing out potential oversights in these rankings, I don't mean to criticize the hard-working folks who create these lists. However, since a list like this is publicly available through the NHL's official website, it can set the stage for your average fantasy manager's perception of certain players. That makes it important for you to identify value discrepancies in these rankings, so you can identify who might fall in fantasy drafts and decide which of those 'fallers' are worth targeting in fantasy formats.

Overrated: Darcy Kuemper – NHL.com ranking: 8

LA had the best even-strength defense last year, posting the league's lowest expected goals against (via NaturalStatTrick). With a goalie's numbers largely influenced by the team in front of them, it makes sense that Kuemper would be a valuable fantasy asset. Not only was the team in front of him good last year, but Kuemper's individual performance was excellent, as evidenced by his spectacular 29.45 goals saved above expected, which ranked fourth among all netminders (via EvolvingHockey). Although Kuemper has performed well throughout his career, last season was a level above anything we've seen from him in terms of GSAx. I'd be wary of a goaltender having a career year at the age of 35, as I see much more room for him to regress than to improve or stay the same.

The primary reason for my pessimism is LA's defensive downgrades this summer, swapping Vladislav Gavrikov – an excellent shutdown blueliner – and Jordan Spence, for the underwhelming Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. The team's suffocating style of play may survive these changes, but I imagine there will be some drop off in their defensive results. Is it possible that Darcy Kuemper has another good year?  Absolutely. But if you're drafting him ahead of guys like Igor Shesterkin (rank 9), Linus Ullmark (rank 11), Ilya Sorokin (rank 13), and Jacob Markstrom (rank 15), you're setting yourself up for disappointment. In my eyes, Kuemper's current acquisition cost is so high, there's virtually no room for him to outperform expectations and provide surplus value, so it makes sense to avoid him in fantasy formats.  

Underrated: Jeremy Swayman – NHL.com ranking: 22

I can understand placing Swayman outside the top-20 fantasy netminders because he really struggled last season in his first go as Boston's undisputed starter. Although he thrived in his previous three years with the Bruins, he had done so in a timeshare with Linus Ullmark. Ullmark's departure caused Swayman to jump from 44 to 58 games, and his numbers suffered with the increased workload. Now, it's hard to say if fatigue was the prime factor behind Swayman's struggles because the Bruins were also decimated by absences on the blueline. Top defenseman Charlie McAvoy missed most of the second half with injury, Hampus Lindholm was sidelined for the final three quarters of last season, and shutdown defenseman Brandon Carlo was dealt to Toronto at the deadline. That effect of those absences was particularly evident on the penalty kill as the Bruins went from a top-10 PK (82.5%) to a bottom-10 PK (76.3%). Swayman's PK SV% was a lowly .814% last season – a steep drop from the .886, .895, and .857 it had been in prior years. With McAvoy and Lindholm expected back in the fold this season, Swayman will have better insulation and should be able to post better numbers.

Underrated: Karel Vejmelka – NHL.com ranking: 23

He's not a household name just yet but Vejmelka deserves much more respect in fantasy formats after an excellent 2024-25 campaign. His first three years in Arizona yielded underwhelming results as his GAA was consistently above 3.25, but he elevated his game in year four, posting 20.75 goals saved above expected through 58 games. Only 10 goalies in the league finished the year with a better GSAx. His stats might have been even better had he not been forced to start 24 of Utah's 25 games down the stretch after Connor Ingram entered the NHL's Player Assistance Program. Vejmelka fared well during the first half of that marathon run but faltered in the back half. Fortunately, Utah signed Vitek Vanecek this summer, which should prevent Vejmelka from running out of gas down the stretch again. Although Vanecek and Ingram are serviceable NHL goalies, they each have one year remaining on their contracts at miniscule cap hits. Vejmelka, on the other hand, recently signed a lengthy extension and is on the books for five seasons at a cap hit of $4.75 million. He's getting paid like the team's bona fide starter, he'll get played like the bona fide starter.

Not only did Vejmelka flash strong individual ability last year, but he plays for an underrated team in Utah. The Mammoth ranked sixth in team defense based on expected goals against at even strength last year (via Natural Stat Trick). They might take a small step back defensively after losing Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan, but adding JJ Peterka gives them an offensive boost that could help Vejmelka secure a few more wins. The way I see it, Vejmelka is a good goalie on a good team, but neither he nor his team have received the widespread recognition they deserve just yet. That sets up a situation where a mainstream outlet like NHL.com is ranking Vejmelka much lower than he should be, allowing you to pay a discounted price on draft day so you can reap rewards later in the season.

Underrated: Juuse Saros – NHL.com ranking: 24

There's some logic to Saros' placement near the bottom of NHL.com's rankings. For starters, he's coming off his worst season as Nashville's starter having posted an .896 save percentage and -4.68 GSAx through 58 appearances last year. That negative GSAx suggests individual struggles that went beyond the team's discombobulated play after adding big-name free agents Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos. However, I can't help but feel like some of Saros' struggles can be attributed to the blueline in front of him. Brady Skjei, signed to a seven-year deal in the summer of 2024, had strong defensive results in Carolina but put forth substandard play as he adjusted to a new system in Nashville. Then there's the departure of talented defensive defenseman Alexandre Carrier, who was shipped to the Canadiens on December 18^th. Prior to that trade, Saros held a .911 SV% and 9.6 GSAx over 26 games. After that trade, Saros stumbled with an .882 SV% and -14.28 GSAx. It's not all on Carrier's departure as Roman Josi missed a significant portion of that second stretch due to injury. We learned last month that Josi's absence was due to postural tachycardia syndrome, which can be treated but not cured. Although the Preds currently expect Josi to be available for the 2025-26 campaign, there's understandably some uncertainty given his diagnosis, which has a trickle-down effect on Saros' fantasy value because Nashville's blueline is obviously much weaker without their captain. I feel like Saros' current fantasy stock – which has NHL.com placing him 24^th among all netminders – reflects an overly pessimistic outlook. It's an outlook that lets recency bias place weight onto one bad season instead of finding reassurance in eight years of consistent excellence beforehand. It's an outlook that assumes Roman Josi misses time, even though there's no official word from the team suggesting that. Sure, Nashville's blueline has taken a hit recently, but Saros is still a very talented goalie with a strong track record, and I believe he can bounce back. The downgraded team in front of him may prevent him from posting the save percentages and wins he did in the past, but he has the individual ability to provide extra fantasy value this year – especially if he’s being taken outside the top-20 goalies.  

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have a great week ahead :)