I'm departing from normal Roos Lets Loose content to cover something every fantasy hockey GM should be thinking about right now, and that's doing a team audit. Why now? There's been enough time after signings, trades, and buyouts for things to come into focus regarding next season, plus keeper decisions will be due soon for many leagues. Plus, even if you're not in a keeper, you need to begin to prepare for your draft to ensure you get a leg up. But most importantly, we're on the cusp of the release of the "hockey bible" which is the Fantasy Guide; so you want to be best prepared to be able to gain the most benefit from that invaluable resource.

What makes an effective team audit? Of course, there are no set rules; but to me, it consists of seven steps, in this order: (1) assessing your performance from 2024-25, (2) weighing the impact of offseason developments, (3) comparing your team versus your competition, (4) setting goals for 2025-26 and beyond, (5) choosing the "right" keepers in view of your goals and competition, (6) figuring out trades to make, if allowed and called for, and (7) deciding how to approach your draft. I did not mention salary cap, since I could devote an entire column to just that area. But salaries are still a factor, as I'll explain.

Step 1 – Assessing Your Team's Performance from 2024-25

This is about a lot more than where you finished in the standings. Were you strong out of the gate but then faded? Did you start slowly but were thriving by the end of the season? Or did your team's place in the standings largely not fluctuate? In some cases, I'd rather have a team which, despite finishing in the middle of the pack, was firing on all cylinders by season's end and looks poised to carry that momentum into 2025-26, than one which emerged victorious but was sputtering by game 82.

Look also at how your team fared in each category. Was it a case of extremes, where you were near the top in some but the bottom in others? Or were you in the middle for most? Was there a pronounced difference in how you fared in skater categories versus those pertaining to netminders? And although you want to pay attention to all categories, those which are less predictable, such as +/-, SHP, GWG, and even HIT and BLK, should be taken with a bigger grain of salt than others.

How beset by injuries was your team versus others in the league? If you either were hit extra hard by the injury bug or managed to largely avoid it, is that a trend which is likely to repeat? In other words, did a lot of your players get injured despite most not having a track record of that; or, conversely, was your roster able to avoid the injury bug despite being comprised of quite a few Band-Aid Boys?

Focus on players whose scoring rate was 15% above or below what it was in 2023-24, as well as those whose TOI rose or fell by over a minute and/or whose PP Time rose or fell by 30 seconds or more. For them, try to look under the hood to see if this might be their new normal, or instead an aberration.

Be sure to give consideration to each player's team, as well as its philosophy on ice time. Also, take notice of whether having several players on the same NHL team benefitted you or had the opposite effect, and, in turn, consider whether to diversify more, or less.

Step 2 – Weighing Offseason Developments

Certainly it matters if any of your players are on new teams, and the impact – positive or negative – that figures to have. But look also at ripple effects of other players having changed squads. Of course, no one has a crystal ball; however, you should be able to gain insight from looking at this in detail.

Also, I realize I said I wouldn't cover salary cap considerations; however, how much a player is being paid, and for how long, is significant, especially if it has risen considerably based on a deal signed this summer. And here too this is not just for players who changed teams; be sure to focus as well on players who stayed put but whose salary is now quite higher.

And remember that nearly a third of all teams will enter 2025-26 with a new coach. This could mean changes – good or bad – in terms of deployment, usage, and the like. Perhaps young players will get a better chance to shine, or instead veterans will be leaned on more. In most cases these coaches have a past track record which may provide insight; but do realize they might not be the same leopard with the same spots for their new team.

Step 3 – Comparing Your Team Versus Your Competition

First and foremost, you must be objective here. I don't just mean that you need to avoid seeing your team more positively than deserved, as we can just as easily fall into the trap of being too critical. Step back and look at things with an unbiased lens. Also, there's always the DobberHockey Forums if you want other opinions from those with no skin in the game.

Avoid looking at your team in a vacuum. You have to factor in other teams, plus how they themselves see their own teams and other teams. It's all intertwined. I can draw a poker analogy. Everyone looks at the hand they're dealt and decides whether it is strong, weak, or in between. But in poker, the better players don't stop there, as they also envision what others at the table have, plus what other players think they have, etc. The key is to truly grasp the big picture, and from not just your vantage point.

Look carefully at player ages and games played. Some could be nearing or even above the 1000 games mark by age 30, whereas others might have played half as many by that age.  In other words, one's age might not always correlate with when they are apt to decline, although more on that below.

Resist the urge to think 2025-26 will unfold the same as 2024-25. Here too I mean avoid being too negative or positive in terms of your outlook, plus ensuring you look at all teams, not just your own. But do realize that the higher the ratio of keepers to players in one's active line-up, or even one's entire roster, the less likely it becomes for the standings to change markedly. More on keeper strategy below.

Step 4 – Setting Goals for 2025-26 and Beyond

Many feel there can be only two goals for a team upon entering a season, and that's to either win or to rebuild. But things are not so polarized. For example, if you have embarked upon a rebuild, be sure to see how it's progressing and how much longer, if at all, you need to continue. Or perhaps you have a very strong group of current keepers, but your window to compete might be closing. Take stock and go into the season with a plan.

Also, although this is about what to do in the offseason, it certainly merits mentioning that you want to reevaluate your goals at least every few weeks during the season because they can shift, whether due to injuries or perhaps your players either starting to fade or to thrive earlier – or later – than expected. In short, be sure to see if your offseason goals are still applicable as the season unfolds.

Setting goals is particularly key in leagues where players can be kept a limited number of years and/or where it gets more expensive (e.g., in terms of draft round) to protect them. Both of these add wrinkles which need to be assessed and ought to influence how you approach the upcoming season and beyond.

Step 5 – Landing on the "Right" Keepers in view of Your Goals and Competition

You might wonder why this isn't entitled just "Landing on the Right Keepers". The reason is keeper decisions need to factor in much more than just who the best players are on your team. It matters what your goals are and for your keepers to be aligned with those goals, plus where you likely will stand versus your competition in terms of their keepers and goals.

Beyond that, you ought to factor in your scoring categories and how many start at each position, as well as what historical patterns have been in terms of your competition's keepers and drafting. If your league is heavily weighted toward goalies or defensemen, knowing that and acting accordingly is key. It often is best to do the opposite of what other teams do, sort of along the lines of economics, where it is frequently advocated that when others are selling you want to buy, whereas when they're buying you want to sell. If you follow the flock, you might not be doing yourself a favor, although in fairness there is a point where you can go overboard and be too much of a contrarian.

That also segues into another key, which is to avoid what I call "fancy play syndrome" and which is also a poker term. It means you generally should not do things which are so far out of the box that you overly complicate a process that need not be anywhere near as complicated. Of course, there was a time when the now quite widely accepted "Zero G" strategy may have been seen as fancy play syndrome. What that underscores is  the difference between thinking outside the box, which is good, and doing things that are overly complex, which is less likely to benefit you. I'm not saying you have to paint by numbers; in fact, usually a mix of being both bold and conservative is ideal.

Resist the urge to go "all in" on keepers. By that I mean let's suppose that in a 12 team league each team can keep only eight players at any position. Some fantasy GMs, upon realizing they are not going to win, will do anything and everything to have the "best" eight keepers for the following season, even if it means they are left with nobodies on the rest of their roster. Under such circumstances, it is true that any player not kept is lost for nothing; and I'm not saying if you're out of the running you shouldn't focus on improving your keepers. If that is a single-minded goal at all costs, you may end up helping other teams in their rebuilds or perhaps filling holes they had for their keepers. It is also not difficult for other teams to sniff out when someone is doing this, and, in turn, to try and tilt deals in their favor. 

Do be mindful when trying to improve your keepers, and not as blatantly obvious. Avoid acting in a way which you think will assuredly benefit your team but in truth is a net-negative due to ripple effects. Or to put it another way, this too can be an instance where you can fall into a trap of just looking at how things impact you, when you should be considering how it will affect others as well, their perception of you as a GM, etc.

Step 6 – Figuring out Trades to Make, If Allowed and Called for

This could be a moot point since in some leagues offseason trading is prohibited. But if it is permitted, you want to look into it, yet also resist the urge to do what I refer to as over-tinkering. By that I mean you want to make trades if, objectively, they will be a net positive for you. It doesn't have to be a net positive immediately, as in the case of forward-looking trades.

When I say net positive, I don't mean solely as far as how the trade(s) impact league standings. For example, and borrowing from Step 5, if you're in a keep 10 league and have 12 keepable players, you can possibly make two for one deals or player for pick deals that you otherwise wouldn't make during the season but with the purpose of getting to just 10 keepers and not losing assets for nothing. 

If someone approaches you with a trade, be skeptical. If it appears to be fair, or perhaps even tilted in your favor, look at all angles to see if there is something you might be missing at first glance.

You do want to make trades at least from time to time though. If you don't, then no one will approach you, or, if you approach them, they will be very cynical. Does that mean you have to depart from best practices and accept deals that are not a net positive? Hopefully not; however, it could be warranted to accept a low impact trade that might not be a clear win for you just to make sure you don't come across as someone who's only open to dealing under your terms.

Do definitely consider whether it makes sense to trade players now, versus during the season. This is especially true when it comes to positions of scarcity, like goalies and scoring defensemen. Often you will want to refuse a deal in the offseason even if it will benefit you, so long as you have high confidence that you will get a better return during the season. This is not without risk; but you want to weigh it as an option.

I also generally prefer to not make trades where more than two players on each side are coming/going. This is of course not an absolute rule; but the more players involved in a trade, the more potential for it to turn out to be lopsided, or for the other team to try and conceal that a deal is tilted in their favor.

Trading for draft picks is usually best for rebuilding teams. Otherwise, who knows what talent will be available come draft time. The exception of course is leagues where players can be kept for only a set number of seasons, meaning you will know who's coming off retention.

Step 7 – Deciding How to Approach the Draft

As much as we place significant weight on keeper decisions, for most non-dynasty leagues it is the draft that will make or break a season. The following advice assumes this is not your first draft in your league. If it is, ask for draft logs from prior seasons, to get a sense of your competition's tendencies.

Something to underscore is the days of one GM showing up on draft day having had access to resources that other teams didn't are long gone. Sure, there might be the one GM who forgot it was draft day or failed to pre-rank players. But the reality is now pretty much everyone can arm themselves with troves of information, ratings, and projections. Do not expect to get a huge edge. That doesn't mean not to prepare as best you can, including, as worth noting again, via the Fantasy Guide.

When I said above that new drafters should try to get a sense of draft tendencies of the competition, I didn't mean only new players should do so. Before every draft you want to do your best to discern any clear patterns of drafting among your competition. Is there someone who always goes Zero G? On the flip side, do some GMs take goalies early most every time? Are there some who strive to grab every top multi-cat guy? Of course, there are no guarantees that someone will adhere to their prior pattern(s); but do take the time to sniff out any and modify your draft approach accordingly, or be prepared to do so if indeed they stick with their established tendencies.

What if you're rebuilding – how do you draft? Resist the urge to take players too early even though they will likely be cornerstones for your rebuild. Most likely there will be time to get them later. Or if you don't get all of them, you'll get most. Early on, take the best players, as either you keep them and they help your team when it is emerging from a rebuild, or you can ransom them off during the season when other teams will need help, getting key building block assets in return.

Do factor in positional scarcity. A total of 164 defensemen played 60+ games last season. That might sound like a lot; however, if you're in a 12-team league and six defensemen start, that is nearly half of the total. That matters, since of the 164 fewer than half scored at a 27-point full season pace. Yes, some were still rosterable due to multicat; however, there will not be enough scoring d-men to go around.  More on defensemen below.

What to do about goalies? Given how unpredictable they've become, you just have to do your best to put them in tiers and then try avoid being the very first or very last GM to take a goalie from each tier. That's because if you're first, there's a good chance you might've jumped the gun, whereas if you're last you run a real risk of missing out if there is a run on netminders before your pick next. Can you take more than one goalie from a tier? Of course, but only if it makes sense versus the caliber of skaters who are also available.

Whether or not you're rebuilding, and no matter how many keepers you have, do factor in age for skaters. For example, of 87 centers who averaged 0.5 points per game in 60+ games, 35 were age 30 or older, but only 12 were age 33+. For left wings, a total of 41 played 60+ games while averaging 0.5 points per game. Of them, 12 were age 30 or older, although nine of the 12 were age 33+, including two of the three with the highest points per game rates. With respect to right wings, there were 35 who met the games played and points per game criteria, with nine being 30+, including two of the five who averaged better than a point per game, but only four being 33 or older, and none of them being point per gamers. This also underscores positional scarcity, showing center is the deepest forward position, followed by LW and then RW.

What about defensemen and age? A total of 51 defensemen played in at least 60 games while also averaging 0.4 points per game or better, which I understandably set as a lower points-per-game bar than for forwards. Of those 51, only 19 were age 30 or older, which, although a far higher percentage than forwards, is still not very high.  And of those 19, only eight were 33 or older. If we raise the per game scoring minimum to 0.5 though, that reduces the number from 51 to just 37, of which 13 were age 30 or older, for a lower percentage, yet not by much. But of the 13, only five were age 33+, for a not surprisingly even lower percentage than if 0.4 points per game is the cut off.

I'm sure it does not come as a shock to anyone that players younger than 30 outperform those who are 30+. But perhaps the extent to which they do, and how much worse those age 33+ fare, might not have been so evident.

One issue is always what to do with picks in the later rounds. Often there are so many options that it becomes difficult to decide who to pick. For me, tiebreakers include those who play a lot on off nights, if your league allows for daily line-ups, plus those who are solid in multi-cat, even if not so solid in scoring, as well as those who get PP time, even if not PP1, since in most leagues PPPts are huge because they are not only helpful for their own category, but count doubly as a regular goal or assist. And when in doubt, go with risk/reward players. Try to swing for the fences, since if you miss you can drop them. What I would not do is pick a player who will be comparable to what's left on the waiver wire, as there is little to be gained from doing so. Also, all things being otherwise equal, I like to pick a player who will be a UFA or RFA after the season, since he figures to be more likely to do better than predicted. Lastly, don't be too spooked by Band-Aid boys. Yes, they can be frustrating; however, if they get hurt they can go on the IR. If a player who, when healthy, is quite a bit better than those who are left to draft, do consider taking him.

Conclusion

Let me end by saying I'm certain there are more factors to consider when conducting a team audit, as well as additional aspects and nuances with respect to the factors I listed. The key is to do more than go through the motions. Be objective and thorough. Look at things from all angles, and not in a vacuum without also considering other teams.

Questions for Mailbag 

My monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.