Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

I hope everyone enjoyed my annual edition of Goalipucks and the Three Netminders. Now it's back to business as usual this time, as I look under the hood at three skaters. Who did I choose to assess, and why? Well, as a plug for the just released Fantasy Guide, which is still available for order and where I penned the Outliers piece, one outlier area was forwards who scored 25+ goals despite not averaging 2 SOG per game. Let's look at three from that list – Gabe Vilardi, Dylan Strome, and Tyson Foerster. Which one should poolies expect to do better in 2025-26 (and thus was too cold in 2024-25), versus worse (i.e., was too hot in 2024-25), versus producing about the same (i.e., fared just right in 2024-25)? Make your picks, and read on to see if your instincts were correct.

Gabe Vilardi (71 GP, 27 G, 31 A, 130 SOG, 18:08 TOI, 20 PPPts, 2:51 PP, 67.6 PP%)

Grabbed 11th overall in 2017, Vilardi didn't become an NHL regular until 2022-23, but then made an impact to the tune of a 53-point scoring pace.  That led to him being a centerpiece in the trade which brought Pierre-Luc Dubois to LA and sent Vilardi to Winnipeg, where he's thrived, seeing scoring gains and pacing for 70 points in 2024-25.  Should we expect even more improvement, especially in view of the extension he just signed?  I would not be so quick as to count on it, but rather for him to produce about the same.

As with the others on this list, Vilardi had a very high SH%, in his case 20.8%.  But he was at nearly 19% in each of his two prior seasons, including his first in Winnipeg where he shot the puck even more often. Although perhaps 20.8% would be seen as stratospheric for many, it perhaps garnered Vilardi at most a couple of extra goals overall.

I was more interested in his secondary assist percentage, since in 2024-25 alone he had the exact same number of assists in 71 games as he did in nearly twice as many games (135 to be exact) over the prior three seasons.  What, if anything, changed?  Not surprisingly, his secondary assist percentage rose to 47.1%, although in fairness it was a miniscule 14.3% in 2023-24, plus 47.1% is only a tad high.  Here again he perhaps lucked into a few more points at most.

Looking at IPPs, Vilardi's overall IPP has fallen in both seasons since coming to Winnipeg even as his scoring has risen.  Does that add up?  Seemingly yes if taking into consideration his 5×5 team SH% at even strength, which, for the second season in a row, was over 11% due to most often being on a line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, two very talented, high scoring forwards, in both 2023-24 and 2024-25.  The trio has been quite successful, as their team SH% indicates, meaning that although Vilardi's IPP was under 60% overall for 2024-25, his scoring rose, suggesting he was an integral part of the success of that line even though he was not a points magnet.  Plus, if the line continues to thrive, Vilardi should only do better, as his IPP can only rise, right?  Not so fast, as looking at the overall IPPs of both Connor and Scheifele shows that for 2024-25 they were comparable to what they were in 2023-24.  That could cut against Vilardi seeing IPP gains.

Also, Vilardi thrived in 2024-25 on the PP, with 12 PPGs and 25 PPPts.  Looking at the 16 forwards who had more PPGs than his 12, all but three took the ice for 3:00 or more of PP time, plus more than half saw over 70% of their team's PP minutes.  There is realistic room for Vilardi to see a bit more PP time in the normal course, which could only help pad his scoring, although there too we need to be cautious, as Vilardi's PP IPP was under 50% in 2024-25, and only once in his entire career has been above 50%.  Although, by scoring 12 PPGs, Vilardi is likely in no danger of being removed from PP1, he does not seem poised to see his PPPts total rise because he simply does not appear to be cut from a scoring cloth when it comes to the man advantage.

What I wondered though is whether there ought to be concern in that Vilardi's overall stats seem to suggest he's a unicorn, as how realistic is it for a player to score 12 PPGs, but under 30 total goals, while taking so few shots and still having a 70+ point scoring pace?  It turns out a pattern like this has precedent, with a player having three separate times scored fewer than 30 goals while potting 10+ PPGs and with a scoring rate of 0.85 or higher despite 130 SOG or lower.  It was none other than current Nashville head coach Andrew Brunette, although first at age 28 rather than 25 like Vilardi.  Brunette became a steady scorer despite being a very selective shooter, in fact even more selective than Vilardi.  But Brunette also did not get much better than where Vilardi is now in terms of scoring pace, as other than one season of 83 points in 82 games, which, perhaps not coincidentally, was the lone season Brunette did average over two SOG per game, he was stuck in the 55- to 70-point range.  Now Vilardi is not only younger, but shoots more than Brunette, who several years failed to top even 100 SOG. Asa result, I wouldn't say it's an entirely apples to apples comparison, but I feel it suggests Vilardi might not be due for scoring gains, at least not until/unless he shoots more.

On the surface, there seems to be a lot to like about Vilardi, and his upward trends since he arrived in Winnipeg suggest even better production on the horizon.  On the one hand, he is a safe bet to remain on both the top line at ES and PP.  But his IPPs are not very good; and if he continues to be a selective shooter that won't help matters. I'd say Vilardi's 2024-25 was, somewhat surprising to me, JUST RIGHT, as unless things change with his metrics he looks to be poised to be roughly a 70-point player, although I'll give him a rating of 5.25 due to his deployment and theoretical room for IPP improvement.

Dylan Strome (82 GP, 29 G, 53 A, 148 SOG, 17:23 TOI, 34 PPPts, 3:00 PP, 70.3 PP%)

Like his older brother Ryan, Dylan was taken in the first round; but he made more of an impact right away, with a 60-point scoring pace in his first full season.  From there though it was a bumpy ride, with his scoring rate dropping to 54 and then 35.  Since then he righted his ship, in fact seeing his scoring rate rise in each of his next four seasons, 2024-25 being the fourth.  But from having never posted a scoring rate even in the 70s to point per game production?  Was it too good to be true, or a midcareer breakout?  I'm going with the former, as nearly all of the key metrics do not support Strome's 2024-25 as being anywhere near sustainable.

As with Vilardi, Strome's 2024-25 SH% was a career best.  In Strome's case however, it was farther above his norm.  Yes, his 14.6% career rate entering 2024-25 was weighted down by early career rates in the 12-14% range, whereas in the past three seasons his rates were 16.0%, 14.9%, and 17.5%.  The difference is not as glaring as it would first appear.  Still, the average of those rates from the prior three seasons is 16.1%, which, had it been his rate in 2024-25, would have translated to five fewer goals.

What also sticks out regarding Strome's 2024-25 is his 34 PPPts, which were 50% higher than his prior career best.  Like his scoring rate, he had been on an upward trajectory; but his gains had been from 16 PPPts and PPTOI of 2:42 in 2021-22, to 21 PPPTs and a PPTOI of 3:00 in 2022-23, to 22 PPPts and a PPTOI of 2:57 in 2023-24.  As can be seen, his PPPt scoring rate had indeed been improving, but only by small amounts and despite his PPTOI being roughly the same each season.  How then did he rise to 34 PPPTs despite only 3:00 PPTOI in 2024-25?  Not surprisingly, the answer lies in PP IPP, which, for 2024-25 was very high at 82.9%, this after he had never even once having reached 70% in a prior season.  It is true that his PP IPP had been rising as well, from 55.3% in 2022-23, to 68.8% in 2023-24, a gain of 13.5 percentage points, which is almost identical to a gain from 68.8% to 82.9%.  But for a player who'd never even once hit the 70% mark to not only eclipse it for the first time in his seventh season, but then to do go all the way to 82.9%, is inherently suspect.

Let's turn now to OZ%.  Even before he came to Washington Strome started a large chunk of his shifts in the offensive zone, including 70.7% in his last season in Chicago.  With the Caps, Strome was at 64.2% in each of his prior two seasons.  But for 2024-25, his OZ% spiked to 77.6%.  One might be tempted to think that 77.6% is not so far and above 70.7%, and that is not incorrect.  But the reality is in the past five seasons there've been only two instances of forwards who appeared in at least half of their teams' games and had a higher OZ%, one being Alex Ovechkin and the other Artemi Panarin.  Also, 70.7% was higher than I'd thought, as only in one of the past five seasons did more than a handful of forwards who appeared in at least half their teams' games have an OZ% as high or higher than that.  Yes, Strome seems to be tethered to Alex Ovechkin, which will mean that his OZ% will remain high.  But even Ovi is normally in the 72-75% range; and let's not forget much of that is boosted by the fact he takes the ice for at least 90% of Washington's PP time, while Strome's rate for 2024-25 was a great 59.0%, but well below 90%.  In short, although Strome's OZ% is not likely to crater, chances are it will drop, likely back to 70% or even lower.

Strome also had an 5×5 team SH% of 11.1%, and this from someone whose track record was that of a lower percentage, with his cumulative average over the prior three seasons, while he was seeing his scoring rise, being 8.9%.  That might not sound like a big difference, but consider that among the 304 forwards who played 41+ games in 2024-25 a total of 44 had a higher 5×5 team SH% than 11.1%, while another 141 had a rate between 8.9% and 11.1%. Here too Strome being above his norm likely gave him a boost in scoring.

Also, how typical is it for a player to do what Strome did, namely tally 82 points while not averaging even two SOG per game and having a TOI per game of only 17:23?  Of the 161 other instances of centers scoring 82 points in a season dating back to 2000-01, a grand total of two had a lower TOI per game, and those were Andy McDonald, who thereafter had a couple of seasons of 75- to 80- point scoring, but otherwise was not an elite player again.  But MacDonald averaged 2.8 SOG per game that season, and 2.75 and 3.07 in his other two top seasons, so he is not a good comparable to Strome, whose career best in SOG per game was 2.06, the one and only time he was above 2.0 per game.  In fact, of the 161 other instances only five had fewer SOG per game, but they were by Adam Oates, Henrik Sedin, and Joe Thornton (twice), all hall of famers, plus Mike Ribeiro, who, like MacDonald, had two more solid seasons of 70+ point production, but in his qualifying season, Ribeiro's TOI was 18:26, or nearly a minute more than Strome's in 2024-25, and in those two other seasons it was even higher at 20:57 and 19:58.  In short, Strome's scoring rate in 2024-25, given his TOI and SOG rate, was essentially unprecedented.

There is little doubt that Strome is a talented player, but producing at the rate he did in 2024-25 was not only unheard of given his SOG rate and TOI, but also was the by-product of a multitude of metrics that unsustainably boosted his scoring rate.  Not surprisingly, his 2024-25 was TOO HOT, and I give him a rating of 8.5, as I think he should be counted upon for closer to 70 points going forward, and actually with a better chance of dipping to 65 than rising to 75.  Or to put it another way, think of 2024-25 as an outlier and what we saw from him in 2022-23 and 2023-24 as closer to his norm.

Tyson Foerster (81 GP, 25 G, 18 A, 140 SOG, 16:52 TOI, 8 PPPts, 1:54 PP, 44.3 PP%)

Also a former first rounder, it took three AHL seasons for him to get a look in Philly, but he made it count, with seven points in eight games in 2022-23.  A full timer NHLer in 2023-24, he fared okay, with 33 points in 17 games, but hitting the 20-goal mark.  For 2024-25, there was minor improvement on paper, with him rising to 25 goals and 43 points; yet he still was not a top six fixture and was stuck on PP1.  Is he a viable candidate for a 200-game breakout in 2025-26?  To me the answer is a resounding yes, as he seems poised to ignite offensively.

Let's start with the 200-game breakout threshold factor.  I think Foerster was likely to pop for it even if John Tortorella was coach; however, with him being gone, I'm sure Foerster will be even more motivated to succeed.  In other words, the timing is perfect.

In fact, Foerster already showed major improvement after Torts was fired.  In the nine games after Torts was ousted, Foerster had 11 points, including three of his eight PPPts that he had for the entire season.  What's more – Foerster was firmly planted on PP1, taking the ice for over two-thirds of Philly's PP time in nine of his last 12 games.  Although he was below the two SOG per game rate for the season as a whole, in those 12 games he had a total of 30 SOG, for a rate of 2.5 per contest.  He also had 4+ SOG in four of those contests, after a total of six contests with 4+ SOG in his other 69 games.  Although Foerster bested the 20:00 TOI mark just ten times all season, each instance occurred in his last 29 games.  And he saw his TOI per game rise by four minutes from Q1 to Q4, and it rose each quarter, meaning even Torts realized that Foerster was someone he should be playing more.

What about player comparables?  Foerster hit the 20-goal mark two separate times in his first three seasons despite not tallying 45 points in either campaign.  Since 2000-01 only six other wingers met both criteria: Cole Caufield, Brady Tkachuk, James Neal, Kirill Marchenko, Ryan Malone, and Kristian Huselius.  Four very encouraging names, given that Neal was a multi-time point-pergame player, Tkachuk has already hit the point-per-game mark once, Caufield is inching upward, and Marchenko had a breakout in his third season after potting 20+ in his first two.  Malone is not a great comparison since he was a winger on the Pens during the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin era, boosting his stats, while Huselius started to peak in his late 20s, with scoring rates of 78, 67, and 69, before injuries ended his career.  Overall, this bodes well for Foerster.

What about his metrics?  They're quite solid.  He was able to score at a 44-point pace despite starting only 39.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone.  Also, his IPP overall was 74.1% and on the PP it was an even better 88.9%.  Granted, the PP IPP is not sustainable; however, the overall IPP shows he has a nose for scoring, and bodes well for when he's able to play with better players at ES, as his most frequent linemates for 2024-25 were Bobby Brink and Noah Cates.  It is true that 50% of Foerster's assists were secondary; however, considering he only had 18 in total that is not a significant sample size.  

Going back to the PP, although Foerster's IPP was sky high, he also had six PPGs despite only eight PPPts in total.  Of the other 17 other forwards who also had six PPGs last season, the average number of PPPts was nine.  It stands to reason that although he likely will not factor as often into PP scoring while he's on the ice, he also stands to gain more PPPts in the normal course, likely balancing things out or, if anything, leading to a net gain of PPPts.

I'm guessing most of you, upon reading the names, thought I was throwing a curveball in including Foerster, where he's be too hot or just right.  But make no mistake, his 2024-25 was TOO COLD, and wayyyyyyyyyy too cold.  He gets a rating of 1.5, as I believe that all is aligned, between the exodus of Torts, Foerster hitting his 200-game breakout threshold, and Foerster already showing signs of superb play at the end of 2024-25, he should be seen as having a 50-point floor for 2025-26, with a chance for perhaps 70 or higher should he stay on what ought to be a vastly improved PP1 and, at ES, play with better linemates and more often in the offensive zone.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.