It's Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey! Across the site, our writers will be discussing players that are on the bubble in keeper leagues. These players aren't obvious stars and so you may be on the fence about holding onto them. Ian kicked things off with Sunday's Ramblings, and I'll keep the ball rolling with thoughts on Jackson Blake, Jonathan Drouin, Mats Zuccarello, and Josh Norris in today's Ramblings. Stay tuned for Puneet's early morning Top 10, followed by Grant's Western Conference coverage shortly after.

Jackson Blake – Carolina Hurricanes

Blake, who just turned 22 last week, turned heads late last season as he racked up 12 points in his final 14 appearances. He benefited from an increased role, skating nearly 17 minutes per game during that stretch – a big step up from the 13-minute average he held prior. On one hand, this is a promising young player who should take another step forward this year, but on the other hand, the quality of his opportunity may be reduced with Nikolaj Ehlers knocking him down the depth chart. 

A third of Blake's points during that aforementioned hot streak came on the man advantage, as the young forward was seeing 68% of Carolina's total power play time. Ehlers likely pushes Blake down to PP2, which means that Blake's promising PP production down the stretch can't exactly be extrapolated to a full season this year. Still, Carolina's second unit features a fair amount of talent and should help Blake put up a few points. At even-strength, Blake spent most of his minutes beside Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho last year. Although there's a chance those three reunite this season, it's more likely things get shaken up with Ehlers in the mix. Here's where things get complicated, because there are so many different possible line combinations, and the configuration that sticks will have a huge impact on Blake's fantasy outlook.

There's a world where Carolina stacks the top line with Ehlers, Sebastian Aho, and one of Andrei Svechnikov or Seth Jarvis. However, I'm expecting a more balanced distribution that allows each player to focus on what they're good at. Jarvis and Blake are both strong defensively, with Jarvis of course being more established. I think it might make sense to have Ehlers and Aho as the offensive duo on line one, complemented by a defensively conscious Blake. Jarvis could then be the defensive conscience of line two, centering Svechnikov and Taylor Hall/Logan Stankoven. Of course, that would require Jarvis to make strides in the faceoff department as his percentages haven't been great so far in his young career. Sharing the ice with Aho and Ehlers would really help Blake improve his offensive output in year two, but that's one just scenario of so many.

At this stage of his career, Blake isn't an established play driver and would need exposure to high-end talent to produce strong offensive numbers, so ending up with underwhelming linemates may result in underwhelming production, especially without a top-unit PP role this year. If you're following the money, it's worth noting that the Hurricanes are slightly more invested in Stankoven ($6 million AAV) than Blake ($5.12 million). I still think Blake can improve on his 34-point rookie campaign, but with so much competition for favourable deployment, it may be more of a small step forward than a massive leap ahead.

Jonathan Drouin – New York Islanders

In the last two years, Drouin has scored at a 71-point and 58-point pace – strong offensive output that would be valuable in most fantasy formats. However, that output came in Colorado, where Drouin saw plenty of exposure to superstar Nathan MacKinnon, both at even-strength and on the Avs' star-studded top power play unit. While the Avalanche ranked eighth in the league with a 24.8% PP success rate, the Islanders' 12.6% success rate put them in 31^st place. Moving to New York will give Drouin some exposure to high-end talents like Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, but it's still a sizeable downgrade from the elite offense he had access to in Colorado. Although I'm not overly high on Drouin this year, I think there's potential for him to provide some fantasy value. Right now, the prevailing belief seems to be that Drouin's impressive production in Colorado was a product of the superstars he played with. It's a red flag that will prevent many fantasy managers from targeting him. That isn't the only red flag with Drouin, who has missed significant time with injury in recent years and will be hard-pressed to replicate last year's lofty shooting percentage of 19.6%. Again, with all these concerns, fantasy managers are likely to steer clear of Drouin. That means he should fall in fantasy drafts, and you should be able to snag him at a discounted rate, leaving more room for him to outperform expectations. He's a decent offensive player in his own right, and although a 70-point pace may be out of reach now that he's left Colorado, he could flirt with a 60-point pace if things click with Horvat and/or Barzal.

Mats Zuccarello – Minnesota Wild

Zuccarello has produced strong offensive numbers in recent years, fuelled by exposure to Kirill Kaprizov. Last season is a good example as Zuccarello was more productive when Kaprizov was in the lineup from October to late December (0.86 points per game), compared to the stretch from late December to early April (0.67 points per game) when Kaprizov was mostly sidelined with an injury.

Prior to last season, the power play had been a major source of offense for Zuccarello, who had flirted with 30 PPPs for three-straight years. Unfortunately, he posted just 16 PPPs last year. You might think that drop-off is explained by the team doing worse with the man advantage since Kaprizov missed so much time, but Minnesota's PP success rate without Kaprizov wasn't much different than previous years when they had Kaprizov. Rather, less of the Wild's PP offense went through Zuccarello last year, as he registered a point on just 52% of PP goals scored while he was on the ice. In recent years, that percentage ranged from 62% to 78%.

Zucc being less of a catalyst with the man advantage this season was true whether or not Kaprizov was in the lineup, but in fairness, the 'with-Kaprizov' sample is smaller since Zuccarello missed some time with injury while Kaprizov was healthy. In other words, it's probably too early to suggest Zuccarello has fallen off as a power-play producer – he might have just needed a larger sample beside Kaprizov on PP1.

To further contextualize Zuccarello's decline in power-play production, it's important to note that the Wild only saw 2.51 PP opportunities per game last year. For reference, they averaged 3+ in each of the last three years before that. Kaprizov draws a lot of penalties, so him missing half the season understandably had an effect on Minnesota's volume of PP opportunity, even if it didn't have an obvious effect on PP success rate. Hopefully, through more PP opportunities and access to elite talent, a full year with Kaprizov can help Zuccarello bounce back with more production on the man advantage.

Now, the tricky thing is Marco Rossi is knocking on the door for PP1 time after a solid audition last year, and Zuccarello may be the odd man out as he'll be 38 and a pending UFA. A potential demotion to PP2 during the season makes Zuccarello an even riskier asset. I'm also concerned about his even-strength production because coach John Hynes deployed him in the middle six during last year's playoffs, stacking Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov on the top line. A new season brings hope for a reunion with Minnesota's star forward, but less even-strength exposure to Kaprizov would obviously hurt Zuccarello's overall output. With concerns of age-related decline and role reduction, I'm hesitant to target Zuccarello in fantasy leagues unless it's at a heavily discounted price.

Josh Norris – Buffalo Sabres

Three seasons have passed since Norris grabbed our attention with a 68-point pace as a sophomore in 2021-22. In these three years, he's appeared in 114 of a possible 246 games (46%), largely hindered by shoulder injuries. He's fallen short of the offensive high he reached in year two, hovering around a 50-point pace in recent seasons. Although injury concerns are significant with Norris, I can't help but feel like there's some untapped potential given the impressive talent he flashed a few years ago. He got off to a promising start with the Sabres after Ottawa dealt him at the deadline, posting two points in three games as he played a prominent role in Buffalo's top six. Unfortunately, disaster struck again as he reaggravated an oblique injury from earlier in the campaign and ended up missing the rest of the year. You should be able to acquire him at a discounted rate in fantasy leagues because of his troubling injury history. If he can get even a little bit of luck in the health department, he has potential to provide strong value as a talented player set to see great deployment this year.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have a great week ahead :)