For Bubble Keeper Week, I always look at a couple of my keeper dilemmas to talk through my logic and reasoning on why I pick one player vs another. Maybe it’s the actual player analysis that helps in your case, maybe it’s the method, or maybe nothing helps and it’s only entertaining.

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In my 12-team partial keeper setup that scores by categories in a H2H matchup and has a decent weight on peripherals, we have limits of six forward keepers, four defencemen, and one goalie – plus a “prospect” keeper slot that has a bunch of intricacies that aren’t worth explaining. My team lost in the semis this past year (winning the third-place matchup) after finishing second in the regular season. That means I’m squarely in a contention window and looking to keep that open.

I have options in net with Jacob Markstrom, Lukas Dostal, and John Gibson. With only 12 goalies kept, it's also very hard to sell one, and the top ones that aren't kept often go early in the re-draft. Now, Markstrom may be 35, but he was the best option last year, should be on the best team for this year, and again because only 12 goalies are kept, there are always replacement options. However, after holding onto Markstrom for a few years, I'm wondering whether a switch at this point might make sense, to milk some more future value out of a different option that is younger and might only be a slight step back.

The 25-year-old Dostal is a full decade younger than Markstrom, played 54 games last season, and should see improvements with both the team in front of him growing, as well as working on his conditioning so his numbers don't continue to drop off in Q4. In the end, it's going to be a tough call but I'm leaning Markstrom.

John Gibson is an option as well, but he feels like the middle ground between betting on current or future upside, and that's how you get stuck in the mushy middle.

To add some background to my goalie debate here, Jesper Wallstedt is going to be my keeper prospect, so I do also have the future goalie base possibly covered anyways, which helps in leaning towards just taking the best player for 2025-26.

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On defence, I have Roman Josi, Darnell Nurse, Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson, Ryan Pulock, Sam Rinzel and Denton Mateychuk, who are all worthy of consideration here. The first three are holdovers for me from last year and feel like easy locks again this year, even though Josi's health is a bit of a question mark. Nurse isn't the sexiest name anymore, but his peripherals are excellent, and finding a defenceman that's solid across all of our categories isn't that easy to do.

The debate then between the veterans versus the youth for the last spot is an interesting one. I profiled Karlsson versus Pulock here last year, and Rinzel versus Mateychuk isn't a clear win for either. Down to personal preference I would likely decide between either Pulock or Rinzel, because I'm not as high on Karlsson this year, and Mateychuk has a lot more blocking his way towards immediate fantasy relevance (though I like his upside more long-term).

Looking at Rinzel versus Pulock the offensive upside in Rinzel really tops what we're likely going to get out of Pulock now, even with Noah Dobson gone. The Islanders have Tony DeAngelo, and maybe Matthew Schaefer, before Pulock gets a sniff of powerplay time, while Rinzel might be the one running the top unit in Chicago. In the peripheral categories, Pulock does have Rinzel handily beat, but Rinzel's shot volume with 2.4 per game last season does help keep it close. Pulock is also more likely to be someone who could be redrafted, and would be less likely to be expensive to acquire mid-season which makes me lean, towards taking the chance here with Rinzel.

Up on forward, I have a big issue of too many options and too few spots. Jack Eichel, Brayden Point, Sidney Crosby, Filip Forsberg, Aleksander Barkov, Matt Duchene, Timo Meier, and Adam Fantilli need to be pruned down to six players. Positions do play a bit of a factor, with there always being lots of centre options, and it being tougher to find very productive wingers in-season. The first five names are likely locks, which brings it down to Duchene, Meier, and Fantilli.

Whether Duchene has winger eligibility really determines whether he could find a home as the sixth option here. If he does, then his faceoffs from the wing are a big plus in this setup. He tops Meier and Fantilli on scoring, but he is on the older side, and after a close-to-career-year, he might be ripe for a slight disappointment. Meanwhile, Meier has the peripheral upside if he could get back to his peak shooting days from San Jose. It seems unlikely after his numbers have fallen for three straight seasons (especially after joining the Devils).

Fantilli is a bit of a wildcard here, and based on trade value alone in this league (which places more value on youth than there maybe should be), he would be the pick. Often, knowing which player would be valued most in a trade points you in the direction of the better keeper, as picking keepers is really an exercise in finding the most value.

Fantilli likely does have one more season before a big point-per-game breakout, so this season would be a building block before that. Last year he posted a 54-point pace, so we might be looking at the low-60s as a natural growth step before the big jump in the breakout year. Does 60-points, PP2 exposure, and some high Hit totals from the center position make Fantilli a better choice than Duchene or Meier? Maybe not, but I think here he is a safe choice, and the trade value cannot be ignored either. On that note, in the meantime, all three will be shopped to see if there's a fit to recoup a draft pick or two.

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One of my other leagues is a keep-six, with eight teams, and I have a lot of players to choose from. The stats counted are G, A, +/-, PPPs, Shots, Hits, and Blocks, with W, GAA, Sv%, and SHO for goalies, and it's a H2H league just like the one above.

Here, Jack Hughes, Zach Werenski, Brady Tkachuk, and Evan Bouchard are the likely locks. For the last two spots, I could realistically select any of Jason Robertson, Josh Morrissey, Tim Stutzle, Matvei Michkov, Jake Sanderson, Timo Meier, Juraj Slafkovsky, or Igor Shesterkin.

I don't often like keeping goalies in this league, but I have kept Shesterkin the previous couple of seasons. However, with the Rangers dropping out of the top-tier of teams, and Shesterkin a few seasons removed from his all-star numbers, it's no slam dunk. Keeping three defencemen is also an option, though I think four would be too many, which means there's a decision to be made between Morrissey and Sanderson to help narrow things down. On the surface, I was expecting Morrissey to be the front-runner, but the underlying numbers all seem to favour Sanderson. The Sens youngster is still growing, as is his team, which is a different situation from where Morrissey finds himself. The two put up very similar point paces last year, close to 60 points for each. Sanderson has the lean in shots and blocks though, and still some developmental runway to take advantage of. For now, we're crossing Morrissey off the list.

When it comes to the forwards, in a league where only 48 players are kept, we need top-50 players, and we don't have to worry too much about finding the next young star, because there are always new options available every summer. With that in mind, I'm going to toss back Michkov and Slafkovsky, who are unlikely to reach the heights that Robertson or Stutzle will. Meier is also going to get nixed, because as we discussed above, his offensive ceiling has collapsed, and we don't need to be drafting for peripherals early in a league this shallow.

That leaves us with Stutzle, Robertson, Sanderson, and Shesterkin for two spots. I'm leaning against a goaltender, even if it is Shesterkin, because with two goalie spots for eight teams, there will always be options I'm comfortable rostering and streaming, but the top guys are more variable when you can't afford a keeper mistake.

I'm leaning towards keeping Stutzle and Sanderson, with Robertson as the last cut. Robertson's name value carries some extra weight after his 109-point season, but the production hasn't been able to keep up the last few years. Stutzle provides similar (or better) scoring, and better peripherals, despite a slightly higher upside on Robertson.

Again, I'll be shopping for upgrades, but it's tough to find teams in need of more bubble keeper options.

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See you next Wednesday, and if anyone has some quick keeper dilemmas (especially cap related – my favourite) I'm happy to answer them over on BlueSky: @alexdmaclean.