In yesterday's Ramblings, I looked at a few players I thought have overvalued Average Draft Positions (ADP) so far this fantasy hockey draft season, including Mikko Rantanen and Victor Hedman. Today's Ramblings will go in the other direction and look at some undervalued ADPs.

These are based off my early personal projections and use six skater categories: goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks. We are using ADP data from Underdog Fantasy and Fantrax, where the former is a points system that uses those six categories, and the latter includes all varieties of fantasy formats.

For the uninitiated, this is just a first run for my projections (things like age adjustments and adding rookies still need to happen, and all players are projected for 82 games played) so there will be some changes. Also, just because I think a player is undervalued doesn't mean they should be taken 3-4 rounds earlier than their ADP – that's what makes them undervalued!

Data from Evolving Hockey.

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For more in-depth breakdowns as well as projections for the entire league, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, now available in the Dobber Shop!

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Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings)

Underdog ADP: 70 (Centre 18)

Fantrax ADP: 81.5 (Centre 23)

My Rank: Centre 10

Over the last three seasons, Larkin is 1 of just 16 forwards to average at least 30 goals, 40 assists, 25 PPPs, 225 shots, and 80 hits+blocks every 82 games. This is the full list:

What separates Larkin from similar centres like Aleksander Barkov and Wyatt Johnston is shot volume. Barkov has seen four straight seasons of shot volume decline, averaging 200 shots every 82 games over the last two years, while Johnston has averaged 209 shots over the last two seasons. Larkin, meanwhile, is at 249 shots per 82 games over his last two campaigns. Being able to put up 40-50 extra shots with great power-play production and reasonable hit/block totals makes up for not being a 40-goal, 90-point guy. Larkin has been remarkably consistent and has yet to have a genuine career year that top options can have. Depending on how a fantasy draft unfolds, I would be more than fine skipping over the Nick Suzuki/Elias Pettersson/Mark Scheifele/Barkov tier going in rounds 4-6 and grabbing Larkin in the sixth or seventh round.

Sean Monahan (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Underdog ADP: 165.8 (Centre 40)

Fantrax ADP: 158.2 (Centre 43)

My Rank: Centre 29

Over his last two seasons, Monahan has averaged 27 goals, 43 assists, 21 PPPs, 179 shots, 47 blocks, and 35 hits every 82 games. That is solid across-the-board coverage, which is reflected in my projection for him this season:

Of course, this is an 82-game projection, and Monahan has averaged 57 games per season over the last four years. He did have a full season in 2023-24 but missed 28 games in 2024-25. His ability to stay on the ice is paramount here because there are very few players drafted in the top-175 picks will be a top-175 player if they miss one-third of the season, and Monahan is not one of those few players.

Ice time matters here, too – he skated over 19:30 per game until his injury in early January but was at 17:01 per game in April when he and Boone Jenner were both in the lineup. My projection has him around 19 minutes again but that is likely too high if the team has its full complement of forwards.

There is a lot of risk with Monahan because there is a massive difference between him playing 60 games at 17 minutes a night and 80 games at 19 minutes a night. For posterity: If I adjust him to 17 minutes a game, he's my 40^th centre. If he can stay healthy, he's being drafted at a reasonable spot, but with a TOI injection there's a lot of draft value here.

Dylan Guenther (Utah Mammoth)

Underdog ADP: 50.3 (Winger 23)

Fantrax ADP: 61.8 (Winger 29)

My Rank: Winger 15

Generally speaking, my projections are very high on the Utah forwards this year – Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley, and Nick Schmaltz all look like good values relative to their ADPs. But it's Guenther that stood out because his ADP has him in the Seth Jarvis tier of wingers – a step below the second tier of wingers – but my rank has him at the bottom of that second tier with names like Keller and Jesper Bratt.

The reason is because part of my projections looks at historical data for similar players. Using Hockey Reference's adjusted goals and assists, here are the wingers who, since the 2013 lockout, averaged at least 30 adjusted goals, 30 adjusted assists, 225 shots, and 60 hits per 82 games across their age-20 and age-21 seasons:

Guenther joins that group despite his average TOI per game in those two seasons (16:43) being 40 seconds lower than the next-closest player (Andrei Svechnikov, 17:23) and 1:22 lower than the average of the other five names. On a 60-minute rate, Guenther's adjusted goal-scoring (1.4 per 60 minutes) is closer to David Pastrnak (1.51) than it is to Filip Forsberg (1.38).

It is always a bit worrisome when a young player has a very high projection and he isn't a generational talent like Macklin Celebrini, but Guenther was solid in a minimal role as a rookie, was very good after being called up in 2023-24, and got even better in 2024-25. Since being drafted in 2021, he's torn up the WHL, the AHL, and improved every year in the NHL. At some point, we just have to believe, and I'm full-send on Guenther.

Dylan Holloway (St. Louis Blues)

Underdog ADP: 95.3 (Winger 39)

Fantrax ADP: 92.2 (Winger 48)

My Rank: Winger 26

This is one I somewhat understand because Holloway has had one good year and turns 24 years old later this month. But I really don't get it because it's not as if his breakout season was built on luck: he shot 12.5% at even strength, which wasn't even a top-100 mark among regular forwards; he shot 21.4% on the power play, which wasn't even in the top 25% of regular PP forwards; he figured in on 73.3% of St. Louis's goals with him on the ice, which is high but not an extreme mark; just 40.5% of his assists were secondary assists where the league median was around 39% (per Frozen Tools). Maybe the goal participation was a bit elevated, but that's basically it. And even if that 73.3% goal participation was closer to 66% (above average but not high), his 82-game pace is still over 60 points.

Back in 2023-24 with Edmonton, Holloway scored 0.85 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 between the regular season and playoffs, which is a high-end second-line rate. That number was 0.88 goals per 60 in 2024-25 with St. Louis. The additional goal production came via ice-time growth and a meaningful power-play role. My projection has him with 28 goals in 82 games, similar to last year, but with just 33 assists (he had 37 in 77 games). What makes him valuable is he can bring good levels of shots and blocks with a ton of hits. Unless Holloway is a genuine one-year wonder, which I do not believe he is at all, being able to draft him in the seventh or eighth round seems like pretty good value.  

Dougie Hamilton (New Jersey Devils)

Underdog ADP: 107.3 (Defence 17)

Fantrax ADP: 72 (Defence 18)

My Rank: Defence 10

Well, if it isn't my good friend Lucy, being such a kind person. She's holding that football for me as I gear up to give it the hardest kick I possibly can. There is no way anything goes wrong here, is there?

I was really high on Hamilton last year and while he wasn't bad, he wasn't great, either. The thing is, over his last two injury-shortened seasons, he has 14 goals, 42 assists, 23 power-play points, 247 shots, 109 blocks, and 92 hits in 84 games. Here is my 82-game projection for Hamilton in 2025-26:

Once I do my age adjustments, this probably works out to an 18-goal, 35-assist, 23 PPP, 230-shot season. That feels a bit heavy on goals and a bit light on assists but even if it's 15 goals, 40 assists, 230 shots, and 23 PPPs, that's still an excellent year.

Of course, two huge factors here are health (again, just 84 games over the last two seasons) and the lurking Luke Hughes, who can take away the top PP time at any point. Even with top PPTOI, if Hamilton plays 60 games, he won't be a top-10 defenceman. And if he plays 80 games but loses the PP role a month into the season, he very likely won't be a top-10 defenceman. So, there's a lot that can work against him, but the juice might be worth the squeeze.

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)

Underdog ADP: 128.8 (Defence 22)

Fantrax ADP: 94.3 (Defence 22)

My Rank: Defence 11

Boston had a terrible year, and McAvoy got injured in February. For some fantasy players, that might cloud the fact that he had 7 goals, 16 assists, 98 shots, 81 blocks, and 89 hits in 50 games. In an 82-game season, that is 12 goals, 26 assists, 161 shots, 133 blocks, and 146 hits. Certainly light on assists thanks to an awful power play, but otherwise a really good multi-cat effort. Over the last two years, here is the list of defencemen who played at least 100 games and averaged at least 10 goals, 30 assists, 150 shots, 150 blocks, and 150 hits every 82 games:

MacKenzie Weegar has had better peripherals, but he's also going inside the top-10 defencemen by ADP whereas McAvoy is going in the 20-25 range. Does anyone think 125 total shots, hits, and blocks are worth taking Weegar somewhere in rounds 3-5 instead of taking McAvoy somewhere in rounds 9-11?

In a way, I get it because McAvoy has averaged 15 games missed per season across the last four seasons. Similar to Hamilton, he won't live up to this projection if he plays 65 games. And there is concern around the power play because Boston's was quite bad last year, and Mason Lohrei is waiting to take McAvoy's spot. But remember that McAvoy was still solid in 2024-25 on a per-game basis despite just four PPPs in 50 games. He puts up great peripherals and doesn't need 230 shots to score 13-14 goals. In my drafts, once the tier with names like Josh Morrissey and Thomas Harley is gone, McAvoy's name is circled, underlined, and highlighted.