Ramblings: Knight Signs Extension; Perry, Blackwood Injuries; Roto Rankings Fallers (Sep 14)
Ian Gooding
2025-09-14
The Blackhawks and Spencer Knight have agreed to a three-year extension worth $17.5 million that will begin next season. That works out to a cap hit of $5.833 million, which is slightly higher than the $4.5 million he is set to earn this season. Knight was acquired in the Seth Jones trade with Florida last season, and it appears that the Hawks hope that he will be their long-term starting goalie. At age 24, Knight still has a promising future, but he shouldn't be drafted high in non-keeper formats given the Hawks' situation.
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Corey Perry's injury while skating on Friday turned out to be significant, as he will be sidelined for about 6-8 weeks following knee surgery. A 2024 Stanley Cup playoff hero for the Oilers with 10 goals in 22 games, Perry signed a one-year free agent contract with the Kings on July 1. Now 40 years old, Perry won't likely make a major impact fantasy-wise, but he should provide some bottom-6 depth for the Kings and perhaps even second-unit power-play usage once he is ready to return.
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Something to keep an eye on if you are participating in early drafts: Mackenzie Blackwood has not skated or taken shots with the Avalanche all week because he appears to be battling a lower-body injury. Last week I listed Blackwood as a player that I thought was being drafted too high in Yahoo leagues with an ADP of 26.5. That ADP has since risen to 25, while Yahoo has ranked him at #21. Although this injury could heal quickly with rest, I am even less likely to draft Blackwood in the first few rounds with this news.
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The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for September – hopefully in time for your drafts. As has been the case for the past two seasons, we have joined forces with Hockey Bangers to provide the update the September rankings.
If 100 players isn't enough for you, check out the full rankings over at Bangers Fantasy Hockey website. Once you become a subscriber and download rankings, you will be able to view rankings for 350 players, projections in each category, and an overall bangers score.
Yesterday I provided observations from the rankings in terms of risers, while today will focus on fallers. All of the players below are in their mid-to-late 30s, so a decline in production is very possible – perhaps even out of being universally rostered in fantasy leagues. Even if that's not the case in 2025-26, maybe it's better to avoid or cut these players a year too early than a year too late.
With one season left on his current contract, Kopitar has stated that he is undecided about whether 2025-26 will be his final NHL season. Keeper leaguers should begin to think about a succession plan for the 38-year-old, who has been remarkably consistent over the past few years. Over the past four seasons, Kopitar's floor and ceiling have been relatively close to each other, as he has ranged between 67 and 74 points each season. Moreover, he has missed just three games total over those four seasons, never playing fewer than 81 games over that span.
One area of concern is Kopitar's shot total, which in 2024-25 dipped below 100 for the first time in his career (shortened seasons not included). His shot-per-game total has fallen in each of the past four seasons from 2.6 SOG/GP in 2021-22 to 2.1 SOG/GP in 2022-23 to 1.6 SOG/GP in 2023-24 to just 1.2 SOG/GP in 2024-25. Kopitar is still projected to reach over 60 points in 2025-26, but the declining shot total is a major red flag and could even keep him under 60 points if he doesn't register enough assists.
Never mind Duchene's age (34). There were several luck factors involved in his surprise 82-point output in 2024-25. For starters, Duchene scored 30 goals on just 150 shots, which turned out a perfectly round number in terms of shooting percentage (20%). Duchene also averaged less than two shots per game, which is normally not a high enough shot total to reach 30 goals. Of the 46 players to score at least 30 goals last season, only Aliaksei Protas was able to reach that number with fewer shots than Duchene.
Duchene also picked up 27 power-play points, which was the second-highest total of his career. That was also the highest total on the Stars, even though Duchene received less than 50% of the team's available power-play minutes (49.5%, to be exact). In fact, Duchene had an insanely high 79.4% PP IPP. Normally his PP IPP is in the 50s or low 60s. Expect Duchene's power-play point total to drop significantly, especially since he projects to be on the second power-play unit (but one of the league's stronger ones, at that). Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Roope Hintz all appear to rank ahead of him on the power-play pecking order.
A (guy named) Stone fell like a stone. Get it? Okay, I'll stop it with the jokes. I simply had Stone ranked too high without considering his games-played total. Did you know that in his six full seasons with Vegas, Stone has failed to reach 70 games played in a season? Okay, remove the two COVID-shortened seasons, and Stone's games-played total by season have been 37, 43, 56, and 66. Hey, at least the trend is that he is missing fewer games per season! However, Stone is as Band-Aid Boy as it gets, and games played projections matter in points projections.
Stone was able to maintain a point-per-game pace in 2024-25 with 67 points in 66 games, once again asserting himself as an offensive force. The good news is that if Stone can stay relatively healthy (ie. reach 70 games), then he could have a better season than many of us expect. Don't reach for him in multicategory leagues, though. Stone has generally taken around two shots per game for the past two seasons, preferring to wait for the right opportunities to shoot. Since playing a physical style is particularly risky for him, Stone won't have a high hits total either, which will bring his bangers value down.
Carlson is one of those names that you've drafted for years without really thinking about. After all, he has been the defenseman on the Capitals' top power play for a decade, and he consistently produces at a 50+ point pace. He also has three 70+ point seasons and two 30+ power-play point seasons under his belt. Consistency in the form of "set and forget" is nice to have on a fantasy hockey roster.
However, the Capitals may be getting ready to phase the 35-year-old Carlson out. The veteran d-man is on the final year of his contract, while Jakob Chychrun is on the first year on an eight-year extension with a $9 million cap hit. Chychrun has also scored double-digit goals in back-to-back seasons, including a 20-goal campaign in 2024-25. That's not to say that Carlson won't have a productive year, but his production has already begun to trend downward.
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Another passing in the hockey world – this one of former NHLPA leader Bob Goodenow. Condolences to his family and friends.
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