It is time to turn our attention, finally, to the real games that are happening in the NHL. We are over a week in now and as of this writing (October 16th) most teams have played three or four games. By the time you are reading there will be another night of games in the books. As is ever the case at the start of the season we have seen some wild results. Huge games from some unsuspecting people, big names not performing as advertised, whole teams disappointing etc. Today we are going to focus on some of the unsuspecting names making the highlight list.

The early season is a prime opportunity to grab players who end up being season holds because they are doing something we did not expect. The challenge is figuring out who those players are. In these first games we have seen player names repeatedly in the box scores and it can be a challenge to figure out if these are just flashes in the pan or actual early season risers that we should take seriously.

For today it means we are going to be grabbing the top 20 in NHL scoring and picking out some of the interesting names to discuss. For completion's sake here are the top five:

We aren't going to be spending any more time here. For the most part these are elite, top round players who we expected to be good and who won't be available for anyone.

After these five though we have players 6-31 all have 6-8 points, and there are some very interesting names.

Shane Pinto has scored seven points in five games, has 15 shots over that time frame, is averaging 18:28 per night, and has over 55% of the team's power play. In a recent Otawa game (October 15th) he was on what looked like a third line with Claude Giroux and Ridley Greig, and on a second power-play unit. On the surface this looks like something of a mixed bag. I like the shot rates, the 18+ minutes of ice time and the large share of the power play. Those are a bit at odds though with the third line, second power-play linemates. Looking a little deeper, six of Pinto's seven points are goals, shooting 40%. Regress that and he is closer to a 50-point pace, much more in line with his career average. If the third line second power-play role sticks I cannot predict a continuation here. The increased shot rates and time on ice numbers give some reason for optimism though. If that continues, he might be a bit more valuable this season than previous ones.

Frank Nazar is next on our list and has six points through five games. He is also contributing 1.6 shots per game, playing almost 18.5 minutes a night, and about 55% of the team's power play. He has consistently been on the second line with Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi, plus he has been on the top power play with those same players and Connor Bedard. In the plus column, the deployment seems great. A strong-looking second line, top power-play and overall a decent amount of ice time. Unlike with Pinto he has a much more sustainable distribution of goals to assists. The downsides here are that he is barely shooting and has been dropping time on ice. In Chicago's most recent game (October 15) he only played 15:20. That top power play has also been getting less than 50% of the share in both of the last two games. All that being said, I am interested in Nazar. He has excellent pedigree on a team that needs him to step up. He is young and not on a great team, so his season is likely going to be very inconsistent. Some amount of point production is going to continue just given the opportunity, but the shot rates are going to limit the ceiling.

On the exact opposite side of the spectrum we have Evgeni Malkin. He is also on a second line, and top power play, but that is where the similarities end. Malkin is 39 years old, has had a storied career, and is clearly on the decline. The good news is that the early returns have been positive. He is shooting 2.2 times per game, getting 70% of the team's power play, and has seven points (mostly assists) in five games. The downside here is that he is already getting the lowest ice time of his career, and that five of those seven points came in his first two games. Malkin has a 60- and 67-point pace in his last two seasons and that feels like about the max we should expect. If his shot rates can reach 2.5 or higher, though, the 65- to 70-point range might still be possible.

Pavel Dorofeyev has been a scoring machine to start: six of his seven points are goals. He kicked off the season with a hat trick before adding one in three of his next four games. He is seeing almost 19 minutes a night, over 80% of the team's power play, and he is shooting over three times a night. All of those are career highs. Given all of the goal scoring we should of course be worried about his shooting percentage, which is high at 37.5%. The thing is that Dorofeyev has historically been a pretty good converter shooting at about 15% over the previous three seasons. Also, four of his six goals have come on the power-play which are usually higher percentage shots. So, will he continue shooting 37.5%? No, of course not, but no one is predicting a 103-goal pace here. Dorofeyev had a 35-goal season in 24-25 but is now getting over two minutes more ice time, a 20% higher share of the power play, and career high shot rates. If those things sustain then a 40-goal season seems imminent and the ceiling could be even higher.

Jake Neighbours also has five points in four games. His outlook though is not quite so rosy. He has been averaging less than 50% of the team's power play, and only about 14.5 minutes of total ice time a night. His shot rates are low as well at 1.5 per game. He has been bounced around the lineup a little bit but in the Blues' most recent game (October 15) he was playing with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, essentially taking the spot that had been given to Jimmy Snuggerud to start the season. While that change in lineup is encouraging, he still only managed about 13.5 minutes of total ice time. As may be obvious, the prognosis here isn't great, and it is only going to get worse. Four of Neighbour's five points are goals. That is four goals on six shots, or a 66.7% shooting percentage. While I like to keep an eye on Neighbours because of some past hype and runs of performance, none of this early going is for real and it is not going to continue.

After the top players there are some 27 players tied with 5 points. I did want to highlight one though.

Zeev Buium. That is all you need to know. Stop reading and go look to see if he is available. Rookie D are always hard to project, but Buium is getting 21 minutes a night, more than 75% of the power-play time (on a unit with Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov), is shooting 2.5 times per game and has five power-play points to start the season. Clearly that proportion of power-play points will change over time, but while he is getting this deployment he should not be left in free agency.

That is all for this week.

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