With it being a bit too early in the regular season for normal Roos Lets Loose content, and with a stick tap to Eli Friedman and his must read weekly Top Ten List column, I decided to put together a top ten list of my own. This one is to warn you about mistakes fantasy GMs make all too often during the course of the season; so I'm going to go through them here, to caution you not to fall into these traps, but also to explain why they're so detrimental to your fantasy teams.

1) Letting subjectivity or personal bias guide your decisions more so than pure objectivity

With very few exceptions, one is a hockey fan before one participates in fantasy hockey. As such, one has players or teams they like – or dislike – from having watched them or followed their careers. What happens when these people start doing fantasy? They are unable to make objectively correct decisions, and instead let their subjective likes – or dislikes – about players or teams influence them too much. 

Do not fall into this trap. It sounds easy to avoid, but I see it time and time again. You have to find a way to be purely objective when you draft, trade, and make retentions. The good news is if you're a fan it means you're watching games, poring over stats, and staying aware of things that are happening, all of which can helps in fantasy………..provided you aren't skewed by subjective views or biases.

Of course, don't go to the extreme, where you prohibit yourself from drafting, trading for, or picking up players you like or who are on your favorite teams, nor go out of your way to deliberately take guys you don't like because of them and/or their teams. If I'm thinking of trading for or picking up a player I like, or on a team I like, I get the opinion of a fantasy enthusiast who is knowledgeable but also objective, i.e., not in your league. Or even better – use the amazing resource that is the DobberHocley Forums. Yes, this is more apt for trades and pick-ups versus a real time draft setting; however, there you just want to pause, reflect, and make sure your decision is not colored by your fandom/disdain for a player or team.

2) Overrating players whose "real life" value exceeds their fantasy value

There are players who do great things on the ice for their teams, and play at the highest level in the NHL, often making well deserved huge money for doing so. But In some instances, this real life value clouds the judgment of fantasy GMs into overvaluing them. Let's look at a few examples.

Jakob Chychrun is making $9M per season for the next eight seasons. This is a testament to his value as a superb defenseman. But the facts are he's never run PP1 on any team for which he's played, has never had a single 50-point season, has only three times ever had a scoring pace of higher than a point per every other game, and, prior to 2023-24, had never played more than 68 games in a season. Yet in Yahoo drafts for this season, he was being picked, on average, earlier than Mikhail Sergachev, Shea Theodore, and Charlie McAvoy to name a few. I realize Chychrun has started well out of the gate; but on paper, he has far more real life value than fantasy value.

Devon Toews is another example. He's stapled to Cale Makar, so he's bound to get some points; but he barely logs any PP time, and his peripherals aren't great. He was drafted ahead of Cam Fowler, Noah Hanifin and Zeev Buium, which objectively seems questionable at best, and just flat out wrong at worst.

It can happen with forwards too. Take Brandon Hagel, who admittedly scored 90 points last season; but prior to that, he was never a point per game player, has a mainly defensive role and, as I write this, is off PP1. Yet in Yahoo leagues he was drafted earlier than Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston, Lucas Raymond, and Travis Konecny, among others.

There is also Nikolaj Ehlers, who has put up some impressive numbers for the Jets and gave them very important secondary scoring. Great in real life. Could he thrive in Carolina? Maybe, but maybe not. And yet he was drafted ahead of Konecny, Dylan Guenther, Kirill Marchenko, and Matvei Michkov.

This happens less with goalies, since it is a position of scarcity and real life value more closely mimics fantasy value. Still, it can happen. Case in point is Ilya Sorokin. He's supremely talented, and likely will do his best to keep the Isles from faring even worse than they might were he not in net. But in nearly all leagues that should not merit him being drafted earlier than Dustin Wolf, Jakob Markstrom, and Jordan Binnington, all of whom are also entrenched starters but for far better teams.

By all means watch plenty of games, and pay attention to things that might not come across when looking at the scoresheet. But don't always mistake on ice value for fantasy value, since many times they don't necessarily go hand in hand.

3) Not capitalizing when you own a player who has "name value" which exceeds his fantasy value

First off, let me explain that name value is usually not the same as real life value. Name value is when a player has notoriety due mostly to past accomplishments, projected future success, and/or the team for which he plays. If you own a player whose name value far outpaces his actual value, chances are you can capitalize by trading him in a deal that favors you.

Who are examples of players with the greatest difference between their name value and actual value? Someone like William Nylander immediately comes to mind. He plays for a very high profile team and is only two seasons removed from a 98 point output. But other than that campaign, he's been basically a point per game player. Yet in Yahoo leagues he was the sixth forward drafted, ahead of Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Sidney Crosby, and Tim Stutzle, who all have point per game downside but a far more realistic chance to hit 90 points.

Other forward examples include Sam Reinhart, still held in far too high regard for his 2023-24 outlying season but failing to be better than a point per gamer otherwise and Nico Hischier, who everyone of course remembers was a former first overall pick but who has yet to hit the point per game mark. There are also past their prime vets with residual name value like Steven Stamkos, Brad Marchand, and Gabriel Landeskog to name just a few.

What about defensemen and goalies? There are plenty of those as well, notably Adam Fox, who has taken a step backward since his lone point per game season, Josh Morrissey, who flirted with point per game numbers in 2023-24, but has not looked the same since, even last season when the Jets were firing on all cylinders, plus Noah Dobson, who many remember hitting 70 points in 2023-24 but now is second banana to Lane Hutson, and past their prime vets like John Carlson, Drew Doughty, and Thomas Chabot to also name just a few.

Here too goalies are less likely to be overvalued in this way. But not entirely, as Juuse Saros, who was once superb, seems to have gone far too early in drafts, as did Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been nothing short of amazing in the playoffs, but has played a lot of hockey and is not getting any younger.

If you have a player whose name value far exceeds his actual value, you want to look into trading him, and the sooner the better. And you'll be able to verify that indeed their name value is indeed too high if/when you get an offer for far better value in return.

4) Holding onto "rough and tumble" forwards too long

If you're an avid reader of my column, you know I've pointed out several times that forwards who are big hitters and play a "rough and tumble" style not only tend to age very poorly, but when they start to do worse, they do a lot worse. Look at the names in this table to see evidence of this occurring.

	Pre age 30 Highest point total (age)	Age when their scoring declined (from what to what)
David Backes	62 (26 years old)	31 (from 58 to 47)
Troy Brouwer	43 (29 years old)	30 (from 39 to 27)
Dustin Brown	60 (24 years old)	27 (54 to 27, but did have one season of 61 at age 33)
Ryan Callahan	54 (29 years old)	30 (from 54 to 28)
Erik Cole	61 (28 years old)	30 (from 51 to 27, but did have one season of 61 at age 33)
Brandon Dubinsky	54 (24 years old)	30 (from 41 to 16)
Mike Fisher	53 (29 years old)	30 (from 53 to 21, but did have three more seasons of 42-51)
Marcus Foligno	73 (27 years old)	30 (from 51 to 33)
Martin Hanzal	41 (28 years old)	29 (41 to 26)
Chris Kunitz	60 (27 years old)	29 (50 to 43, but did have one season of 61 at 32 and one of 68 at 34)
Milan Lucic	59 (25 years old)	29 (50 to 34)
Brendan Morrow	74 (28 years old)	32 (from 56 to 26)
Tuomo Ruutu	57 (27 year old)	28 (57 to 34)

Right there are ten names of some of more notable recent hitter/scorer forwards. Although exceptions exist, with Fisher and Brown, plus the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Jamie Benn and JT Miller, this seems like what could safely be called a pattern. And it makes sense, since this style of play takes a toll.

Seeing this, I'm staying away from Tom Wilson, who is 31 years old. Maybe he defies the odds; but if so, for how much longer? If you trade him now, you'd likely get a ransom for him, and I think I'd give strong consideration to doing so, lest his scoring falls off a cliff and, with that, his huge value. This also makes me more skittish about Vincent Trocheck, who for a while has had a pattern of a great season, followed by two of considerably worse production. He is 32 years old though, meaning I'm far less certain he'll be due for a rebound again. There's also Sam Bennett, now 29. He's been pretty consistent in terms of his scoring during the regular season; but his value will likely rise for 2025-26 due to the season-long injury to Aleksander Barkov. If I own Bennett, I'm exploring trades now, to maximize return and not risk having him become yet another name on this table. And if you're holding your breath for Timo Meier, now 29, to rebound, not only might that fail to occur, but he could start doing even worse, and soon.

Brayden Schenn defied the odds, with 65 points at age 32. But since then his scoring rate dipped to 46 points and then upticked, but only a bit, to 51 points. Consider what you'd have been able to get for him two or even more years ago, versus now. Those who held too long are regretting doing so. And if you think Frank Vatrano might be a candidate to see a scoring rebound, I'm betting against it, as he posted 60 points in his age 29 season, but then right on cue fell to only 45 last season.

But the biggest name to look to sell now would be Filip Forsberg. He's 31 and seems to be poised to keep producing great. And maybe he becomes a unicorn like Ovi, Miller, or Benn. Or he could hit a wall and see his scoring plummet. If I owned Forsberg in a keeper, I'd at least consider moving him.

There are no other notable players who combine scoring and hitting like those in the chart and who are in their late 20s. The closest would be Drake Batherson, but he's only 27. Still, if you own players like Will Cuylle, Juraj Slafkovsky, Jake Neighbours, and Matthew Knies, who might become future members of this club, do keep in mind their likely earlier "expiration dates."

5) Playing it too safe when you have a limited number of free agent pick-ups

You're probably reading that and thinking – wait, if I have only a limited number of keepers, wouldn't I want to play it safe? The answer is no.

What do I mean by playing it safe? Picking up someone who is good, but unlikely to do better. If you pick up a player like that, chances are he won't be an upgrade versus what you have or what else is readily out there, leaving you with a dilemma of whether to put him in your line-up or not, or drop him for someone else. In short, always playing it safe is unlikely to provide your team with an upgrade.

Instead, you want to use at least some of your pick-ups to swing for the fences, grabbing high risk, high reward players. The great thing about players like this is they usually are feast or famine, meaning they thrive or fall flat. If they thrive, you reap the benefits, while if they don't, you can drop them without fear it will come back to bite you, and which is easier to do than with a "safe" player since you can't be sure if they'll be better or worse than others comparable him who are also on your team.

To be clear, I'm not saying to use all your picks on risk/reward players. But do use some, since otherwise you'll miss out on players like those who paid major dividends to risk takers from last season, like Kirill Marchenko, Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Holloway, Ryan Donato, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Dorofeyev, Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Stolarz, and Kevin Lankinen.

6) Overrating "passengers"

A passenger is someone seemingly made better more so by deployment and those around him than innate talent. Make no mistake – passengers can have value and be skilled, like the aforementioned Devon Toews. But in most cases, they're not locked into their "spot" like Toews; and if they somehow found themselves deployed differently, their production could nosedive.

Who fits the bill for forwards? Those who are on a very productive line, but who score at a rate that is well below the others alongside whom he skates.

Case in point is Gabe Vilardi, who last season was stapled to Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele at both ES and on the PP. But Connor had 97 points and Scheifele had 87, while Vilardi's scoring rate was only 70 points. Why did he produce at such a comparatively lower rate? He seemingly doesn't have a nose for scoring, as his overall IPP was 58.1% and his IPP on the PP was 61.0%, well below those of his linemates.

Carter Verhaeghe is another example. When he was on PP1 and playing with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, his scoring rate was in the 70s. But last season he didn't thrive, was removed from PP1, and his scoring slumped.

Even Brayden Point arguably falls into this category. His scoring rate is declining, this despite playing with one of the best in the game in Nikita Kucherov and shooting over 20% in each of the last three seasons. Also, if you remember, Kucherov missed all of 2020-21 and a chunk of 2021-22, and Point scored only at a rate of 70 and 72 points in those seasons.

Morgan Geekie seems to fit the bill too, as he was a borderline NHLer before getting plopped on a line with David Pastrnak. Since then, he's thrived. But how would he fare if separated from Pasta again?

I said this applies mainly to forwards, but look no further than Brock Faber for a glaring example of a passenger defenseman situation that went from great to awful. Due to cap constraints and injuries, Faber was thrust into a huge role in 2023-24, and produced amazingly. Those same circumstances did not apply last season though, and lo and behold Faber's scoring plummeted.

One worrisome defenseman is MacKenzie Weegar. He's always going to be great in multicat; however, his 21 PPPts last season accounted for nearly half his total points, and now he has to contend with upstart Zayne Parekh, who is being groomed for a PP1 role. Shayne Gostisbehere is a concern as well, with 27 of his 45 points last season coming on the PP. If Ghost somehow loses that role, he could be cooked, as he almost looked to be several seasons ago.

Again, let me emphasize that passengers can be great…….provided their circumstances remain so ideal. But with their success tied so much to their spot/deployment/linemates, they are concerning players to own, and I try to shy away from them if possible.

7) Failing to take into account things other than stats when making H2H league free agency pick-ups

Let me preface this by saying last season was my first foray into H2H, after only having done roto for my entire fantasy hockey career. But I was amazed at the things people overlooked, or failed to factor into their pick-ups. Yes, in the end stats matter; however, H2H is its own unique animal, such that in some cases a player who's less likely to produce as well as another might be better to grab as a free agent.

But how could that be? For starters, games played on "light days", meaning days other than Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, where the vast majority of NHL teams play, are huge in league with daily starts. The range between the most and the fewest light days among NHL teams is 17, with Anaheim having the most at 38, while Montreal and Nashville only have 21 light days. That is a vast difference.

Just as important though is teams who play the most during H2H playoffs. San Jose plays 14 games from March 23rd through April 16th, whereas the Sabres, Oilers, Wild, Islanders, Leafs, Mammoth, Knight, and Caps, take the ice for only 11 each, which doesn't seem like a big deal but is a 20% difference. And in the playoffs every edge matters, especially if it's a one year league and retentions are irrelevant.

But how can one be aware of information like this? Via the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide. I realize you may think it's not worthwhile to buy the Guide after the start of the season and you've already drafted; however, if what you read above is news to you and you're in a H2H league, best to get the Guide, which is a small price to pay to gain these edges.

Plus, as I noted, this is about pick-ups, not drafting. Yes, these factors are of course important when it comes to drafting. But it's very useful for in season pick-ups, particularly as the H2H playoffs near. You want to position yourself to win, and that means playing chess when others are playing checkers.

8) Making trades that are too likely not to be a net-positive given the totality of circumstances

You're probably reading this and thinking that you'd never make a trade that isn't a net positive. Well, are you sure about that?

Many times I see a trade made where a team thinks they won, but they are looking at it in a vacuum. In making the trade, did the other team get "more better" than you did? Or did you provide more of an improvement opportunity for other teams not directly involved but with whom you're contending?

What are ways to fall into this trap? Maybe you trade a player with eligibility at more positions and receive one who's eligible at only one position, since even if you might get better stats, roster flexibility can be a big deal. Or perhaps you trade a player who has more points than another, but the player you traded is a goal scorer. Goals are far harder to come by than assists; so when trading goal scorers, you have to consider if you'll be hurt more than helped.

That brings up another point, this pertaining to category leagues. Maybe you're looking for goals, and get a guy who should help you. The issue is the team you traded with now having fewer goals can benefit others by allowing them to pass this team. Or put another way, other teams can make gains thanks to your trade even if they weren't directly involved. It's the same in terms of what you gave up.

And you might think it's a no brainer to trade a big hits and blocks guy if you're far head in that category. But even though your lead is safe, now you might be allowing others to improve. Yes, in theory you'll be getting something in return to help you; however, the net result has to favor you and after all things have been considered.

In short, the impact of trades goes beyond just you, which is unfortunately is the narrow lens through which many view them. It even goes beyond just you and the other team. There are so many moving parts; and only by truly assessing those parts can you see if a trade will be a net positive.

And lastly, I will repeat advice I often give, which is if there are more than two players coming and going from each team involved in a trade, there is far more potential for it to not be a net positive. For one, it can mask who is coming out ahead. There are also far more moving parts to assess. Plus, there's a much greater chance for something to unpredictably go wrong the more players are involved. I won't go so far as to say no one should make trades with many players coming and going, I caution against it.

9) Going too young when rebuilding

For many, the first thought that enters their heads when they decide to embark on a rebuild is to get rid of everyone who isn't under age 25. And although certainly the focus should be to get younger, taking that too an extreme often will not be a recipe for success.

For one, the younger you go, the more risk there is of a player not panning out, despite how highly regarded he might be, especially when it comes to goalies. Also, a rebuild takes time; so it can be wise to hold some players who are in their late 20s or even early 30s. Why? Because those are the players who'll be coveted by teams trying to win, making it easier for you to get them to agree to trades that are lopsided in your favor during the home stretch of the season when they're trying to win.

That brings up another point, which is rebuilding is not something that has to be done entirely or even primarily in the offseason. You should be looking at it all the time, but being selective about the deals you accept, all in the name of maximizing return.

10) Savings too many of one's limited number of free agent pick-ups

When I started doing fantasy hockey, it was considered unwise to burn too many of your limited number of free agent moves before the trade deadline, since not only were there far more trades, but the ripple effects mattered. Fast forward to now, and deadline day is nothing like it used to be, with most players involved being already owned, and not many unowned players standing to benefit enough to grab.

Looking at the players discussed in tip #5, all but Donato "popped" in the first half, with a good chunk doing so in the first quarter. If you are too timid, afraid of squandering a limited resource, then your competition will grab the breakout players, leaving you with a surplus of moves in the second half, but after most of the unpredicted difference makers have been grabbed by less risk-averse GMs.

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I hope this was a useful list. Most likely some of what I said you already knew, or you might not see the same way as me. And that's fine. Also, I could've easily doubled this list; however, I tried to land on the tips I think were most impactful to the most people. Next week Roos Lets Loose returns to its normal format with a monthly poll.

Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.