Back in August we used this article posted on June 30th, 2022 to identify a few potential breakout candidates for 2025-26. The summary is that there tends to be a game count by which players start to break out. In this case breakout is defined as a 25 percent year-over-year increase. What they found is that average size forwards need about 200 games, and D plus exceptionally small, or larger forwards need about 400 games. Please go check it out for more details, but one section in particular has caught my attention and I have been using it the past several years to identify potential breakout candidates in the off season.

"It’s always a great indicator if you see that a player finishes the previous season with 230 or 240 career games and he just enjoyed a very strong second half. When you see that, then feel confident in a potential breakout for the year ahead."

In August then I ran the numbers and came up with the list of players below. It includes their 82 game pace from 24-25 and what that 25 percent year-over-year increase would amount to.

Today we are going to check in on their progress and see if that breakout really is imminent.

With Shane Pinto I wasn't entirely convinced he would see a big jump in deployment given the center depth ahead of him but was still optimistic as he had essentially reached his breakout number before. Pinto has increased his average time on ice by almost two minutes to over 19 a night while increasing his power-play percentage. That all has helped him return to 2.5 shots per game. Most impressively though is his 66-point pace, definitely a step above his 54-point projection. It might not all be for real though as he exploded for goals earlier in the season and is still riding a high shooting percentage. Still even if it regresses a bit more, a 54-point pace seems very much in the cards this season.

All signs pointed to a strong season for Mason McTavish. The big question marks were the new coach, and new players which might hamper his deployment. It sort of seems like Leo Carlsson is getting the bump that McTavish might have overwise gotten. He has sustained his total ice time but is playing on the second power-play unit. While his line with Beckette Sennecke and Cutter Gauthier has certainly gotten hot at times, he has not broken out in any meaningful way. His shot rate has dropped overall, but he is managing to keep up a mid-50s point pace for a third straight season. A decent start to be sure, but he seems to have been leapfrogged in the depth chart, and it isn't clear that we should expect a lot more at the moment.

The only question for Wyatt Johnston was how high could he really go? He had been increasing point totals every season, and was likely to keep going, but what was the ceiling? So far, he's seeing career highs in ice time (over 21 minutes a game), in shot rate (2.7 per game), and is on an 82-point pace. His personal shooting percentage is a touch high, but some of his other metrics are actually a touch low. While 90 points might not be a slam dunk, it seems very much a possibility this season.

I was down on JJ Peterka over the summer and in the potential breakout article. He was moving to a new team, and his 70-point pace already looked unsustainable. Fast forward 20 games and he has lost about two minutes on average, is on a second power-play unit instead of a first, and is now playing on a third line. That is fairly atypical though as he's often been in the top six. It isn't like the sky is falling because he has five points in his last five games, is shooting about twice per game, and is on a 58-point pace. His shooting percentage is too high though so some of that might not be for real. I am going to stick with my August assessment that it is going to be a challenge for him to repeat that 70-point pace (55-60 is much more likely), let alone breakout to a 90-point pace.

Jake Neighbors did not present as the best case to breakout over the summer. There were concerns about his deployment, the arrival of new players, and his underlying numbers. We are going to have to wait and see a little bit longer though as he has missed a big chunk of games so our data set compared to the other players is incomplete. In nine games he is on a 73-point pace, but that is very misleading. He has scored on 46.2% of his shots, is down 1:20 per game in ice time, and the team is scoring way too often when he is on the ice (probably because of his 50 percent shooting percentage). We clearly need to see some more games, but again the signs are not positive that a breakout is imminent, despite his current pace.

The departure of Nikolaj Ehlers made Cole Perfetti a very intriguing candidate. Unfortunately, he missed the first chunk of the season and has only suited up for five games. In those five games he has had a big increase in average time on ice (up to nearly 17 minutes), is seeing almost 65% of the team's power-play time with the top unit, and is matching career high shot rates (two per game). So, is he meeting the breakout threshold in this small sample? Nope. He has two points in his five games. The good news is it looks like he deserves a lot better. He has a low personal shooting percentage and an absolutely criminal 3% team shooting percentage at five on five. Slow start notwithstanding things are still looking positive for Perfetti and given we had such a small number of games to work with it is way too soon to write off a breakout season.

That is all for this week.

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