Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Finaly there have been enough games played where I feel it's reasonable to do a Goldipucks column. That's not to say some players are quite obviously overachieving or unsustainably disappointing. The focus here is on three – Matthew Knies, Morgan Geekie, and Noah Dobson – for whom it hopefully is less apparent as to whether they're too hot, too cold, or playing just right. It's been a while, so let's see if you're still up to the challenge of guessing all three correctly. Stats for each player are current through November 29th.

Matthew Knies (21 GP, 6 G, 18 A, 46 SOG, 20:27 TOI, 2 PPPts, 3:02 PP, 70.4% PP%)

Drafted in 2021, Knies chose to play two years of US college hockey, finishing at or above the point per game mark in both. That led to him jumping straight into the NHL in 2023, where he tallied a modest 35 points in 80 games. Last season the team entrusted Knies with a top six role and frequent appearances on PP1, and he was more than up to the task, with 61 points in 78 games and 13 in his last 12 contests. How well he played gave Leafs fans hope when, as was expected, Mitch Marner left town. Whether Knies would do well when the spotlight shined squarely on him though was uncertain; yet his performance so far this season has been spectacular even as the Leafs have struggled. But is he really this good, or this good this soon? The answer is, seemingly yes.

Predictably, Knies has seen large gains in TOI, both overall – nearly 2:00 per game – and on the PP – over 30 seconds per game. What is good to see though is despite this, his SH duty and his OZ% have held virtually constant. In other words, all his added ice time is coming in situations where he can score. That definitely helps legitimize his jump in production.

Beyond that, his SOG rate, although still well below that of Marner, has also risen, from 1.8 per game to 2.2. The good news is he had one game with five SOG and another with seven. The bad news is he also had seven games with zero or one SOG. But what is interesting is his SOG rate seemingly is not a strong influencer on his scoring rate, as in the game where he has seven SOG, he had zero points, while in the seven games where he had zero or one SOG, he accumulated eight points, or right at his overall scoring rate.

Something else to consider is he has seven multipoint games, meaning he's had two or more points in just under a third of his games. Looking at forwards with a higher percentage of multipoint contests, over 80% have a higher scoring rate than Knies. That bodes well for him to continue to produce at least as well as he is now.

Knies also has a mere two PPPts; and forwards with higher overall scoring rates all have a minimum of five PPPts, with half having ten or more. But Toronto is tied for the fewest PPGs in the league, and their PP time per game is seventh-worst among all teams. So this has nowhere to go but up, although how much Knies will benefit is unclear, as his PPIPP is 33.3% and last season was just 42.9%

Is there any "bad news" in looking at Knies' stats? The team's SH% at 5×5 with him on the ice is 14.0%, which is clearly much too high. Still, it might not plummet, as elite forwards can land at or near the 12% mark. Although his personal SH% is below his career mark, I place less significance on that, since there's a small sample size from which to draw. Still, this elevated team SH% at 5×5 could serve to negate gains he might make in terms of more PPPts. Lastly there's his secondary assist rate, which, at 44.4%, is just fine.

Knies has shown thus far he is more than up to the task of stepping into the shoes of the departed Mitch Marner. His metrics either are reasonable or, when considered as a whole, suggest what he's doing now is sustainable. As such, his 2025-26 thus far has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5, suggesting he'll produce right at his current 95-point pace over the remainder of the season.

Morgan Geekie (26 GP, 18 G, 6 A, 67 SOG, 17:47 TOI, 7 PPPts 3:27 PP, 69.0% PP%)

Drafted in the third round in 2017 by Carolina, Geekie spent two full seasons in the AHL but was in the NHL to stay for 2020-21. Carolina must not have been impressed though, as they left him exposed for the 2021 expansion draft. With the Kraken, Geekie continued to put up subpar numbers, leading to him not being qualified in summer 2023. Boston took a chance on him; and although he barely produced a point per every other game, he tallied 12 PPPts despite barely taking the ice for a third of Boston's man advantage minutes. For 2024-25, the Bs were doing poorly, and had traded away Brad Marchand; so Geekie was given top six minutes and more PP time. Not only didn't he flounder, but being placed on a line with David Pastrnak brought out the best in both, leading to Geekie finishing with 57 points in 77 games. 

Skeptics pointed to his 21.9% SH% and figured there was no way he'd be able to replicate his success. They were right, but also wrong, as he's gone beyond his prior success and flirted with point per game numbers all season. With his SH% somehow even higher now, can he keep producing at this level? No, but only because he should do even better.

For most, the assumption is Geekie is succeeding because of being tethered to Pasta. But is that indeed true? In a word, yes, as Pasta has been on the ice for all but three of Geekie's points this season. That's a good news, bad news situation, as Geekie's production being so great has led the Bs, at least of late, to place Geekie on a separate line from Pasta at ES. Still, this could be similar to when the Avs wanted to try to spread around their offense they split apart Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Yet it never lasted. Let's not forget, not only did Pasta bring out the best in Geekie, but Pasta also thrived with Geekie, to the tune of 61 points in his final 37 games. Although there are no guarantees, I have to think that separation of Geekie and Pasta, if/when it occurs, will be temporary. Plus, they remain on PP1, with little to no chance o Geekie being displaced there in view of Boston's lack of forward depth. In this past Friday's game, Geekie's first without Pasta and Pavel Zacha in the lineup, he still was able to pot a goal.

As far as ice time, Geekie is surprisingly seeing less than a minute more of TOI per game. But he's taking the ice for over two-thirds of their PP minutes and has gained 1:39 in PPTOI per game, meaning all his added ice time has come in situations favorable to him scoring. But because the Bs are still a lower tier team, that has led to Geekie's OZ% being barely above 50%, versus nearly 70% last season. While Geekie might not get more PP minutes, his overall TOI and OZ% likely can only rise, for a net gain in scoring rate.

What also impresses in looking at Geekie's stats is his overall 70.6% IPP. When playing with someone of the caliber of Pasta, whose IPP is routinely 80%+, that means there is usually no more than two other points to share among the other players on the ice with Pasta when a goal is scored. Yet Geekie is right there with a 70%+ overall IPP. His PP IPP is actually under 50%, which can only go up since as I noted his spot there is essentially ironclad.

Of course when talking about Geekie, one has to discuss his SH%, which last season struck many as sky high at 21.9%, yet for 2025-26 is even higher at 26.9%, and this despite him upping his SOG rate to 2.6 per game. This is not sustainable, as the highest SH% by any winger dating back to 1990-91 who had 200+ SOG in a season, which is what Geekie is pacing for as of now, was 23.8%, with only 16 instances of 20%+, meaning less than one per season., plus all but three instances were from 1996-97 or earlier. But Geekie might just be a unicorn, as everyone keeps waiting for his SH% to come back to earth, yet he it shows no signs of doing so. Even if it does, most of the other already discussed factors would likely lead to him still with net gains in scoring, especially since with an overall IPP that high, what would no longer be goals would instead be repackaged as assists. Plus, of those 16 instances of wingers who shot 20%+ with 200+ SOG, all but two had point per game numbers, which is a positive as well.

Although there is indeed a risk Geekie stops being tethered to David Pastrnak, I feel like it's analogous to the MacKinnon and Rantanen situation, where the team gives it a try to see if it can spark them separately, but in the end realizes they're best served playing together. If that happens, Geekie should thrive, and that's factoring in when – yes, I said when, rather than if – his SH% drops, as he has room for more PPPts as well as more TOI, plus his overall IPP is so strong. In the end, I feel like Geekie is destined for point per game numbers, making his 2025-26 thus far TOO COLD, and giving him a rating of 3.0, as I see him finishing right around 85 points, or just above a point per game pace.

Noah Dobson (23 GP, 3 G, 13 A, 40 SOG, 22:55 TOI, 2 PPPts, 1:35PP, 34.5% PP%)

A first rounder for the Isles in 2018, Dobson went straight from juniors to the NHL. In his age 20 season he produced at a 52-point scoring pace, which, although not quite at the level of similar "class of 2019" d-men Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, was still quite good, especially considering how lousy of an offensive team the Isles were. He stayed in neutral for 2022-23 but exploded for 70 points in 79 games in 2023-24, seemingly announcing his arrival among the NHL's elite offensive d-man. As 2024-25 unfolded, Dobson struggled in a big way, in the end failing to record even a point per every other game. Then in the offseason he was dealt to the Habs, where many figured he'd be second banana to Lane Hutson. That has indeed occurred, yet Dobson is pacing for his second best offensive season. Can he sustain his current scoring pace? Although I don't see his scoring as likely to crater, it should drop by a decent amount.

Looking first at TOI, Dobson is almost on a par with 2024-25 in terms of overall TOI, but his PPTOI has been cut in half whereas his PK duty has more than doubled. He also has a 44.3% OZ%, which is not just low for him, but low in general. In fact, of the nearly 100 d-men who've played 10+ games and have a lower OZ%, just two are scoring at a point per every other game or better rate, with Brock Faber, at a 49-point pace, being the highest of them. Clearly Dobson is overachieving given his deployment.

Dobson is also shooting the puck less, having dropped by a full SOG since last season to 1.7 per game. It is true that he's not too far below his 2.2 rate from his 70-point season, but he also has a 7.5% SH% despite only three goals. Yes, fewer SOG can often translate to more accuracy, but it is not good to see this combination of metrics.

It is true that Dobson is right at the 400-game mark, which is often when defensemen truly break out; however, when – as was the case with Dobson – they break out earlier, it is not as common for them to find still another gear at game 400. Or to put it another way, if Dobson had not had that 70-point season, then maybe his production for 2025-26 could be more easily explained as a 400 game breakout; but because he did, that makes it less likely what we're seeing now is a second breakout of sorts.

Most alarming, however, is Montreal shooting 14.3% with Dobson on the ice. Not only is this unsustainable, as even the best of the best defensemen rarely see their teams shoot even 10% with them on the ice, but Dobson has never once in his career seen his team shoot even 9.0% with him on the ice. In fact, he's been remarkably consistent in this area, with a rate of 8.2%-8.8% in each of the last five seasons. His current rate is both objectively and subjectively far too high.

For what's worth, there are some metrics for Dobson though which are neither high nor low, such as his IPPs and his secondary assists rate. Both are right at the percentages we've seen from Dobson in past seasons.

Getting back to the PP though, if Dobson continues to receive only 1:39 of PPTOI per game, that will seemingly put a ceiling on his production. Why? Looking at least season, no d-man who averaged less PPTOI per game than Dobson is now also managed to score at a 50+ point pace. Several were in the mid 40s, but none at 50+. With forwards it can be a different story, with Alaiksei Protas last season and Brandon Hagel in the past being examples; but when it comes to d-men, PP time is of vital importance to producing well. With Dobson relegated to PP2 duty, his 57-point current pace is simply too high.

For Dobson to be doing as well as he is stands as a testament to the fact he remains very skilled offensively. But his scoring rate is unquestionably too high for a number of reasons, as noted above. As such, Dobson's 2025-26 thus far has been TOO HOT, and he get a rating of 9.0, as even with banked points he should below 50 points, and perhaps closer to 45 than to 50.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.