Ramblings: Seguin Surgery; Marchenko Return; Investigation Konecny’s Declining Fantasy Value – December 4
Michael Clifford
2025-12-04
Some bad injury news for Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin as reported by Mike Heika. Seguin will be undergoing knee surgery on his ACL and it looks like his season is over. There is no firm timeline yet in if/when he can return to the ice, but all indications are that he won't be returning for the regular season. Just a brutal break for a guy who has had so many significant injuries.
Dallas managed a shutout win on Wednesday night as Jake Oettinger stopped all 30 shots he faced in a 3-0 win over New Jersey. That was Oettinger's 12th win of the season, tying him for second in the league and one behind leader Scott Wedgewood.
Miro Heiskanen posted a goal and an assist, three shots, and a block, while Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson had the other tallies. Over his last 82 regular season games going back to last year, Robertson has 46 goals, 53 assists, and 251 shots. That we're still seeing 'Should Jason Robertson Be On Team USA's roster?' questions is baffling.
Esa Lindell posted two assists, a shot, five blocks, and a hit in the win. Lindell is up to 5 points, 13 shots, 25 blocks, and 6 hits in 10 games since Thomas Harley exited the lineup.
Jacob Markstrom gave up three goals on 28 shots for the loss.
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Columbus winger Kirill Marchenko was back at Blue Jackets practice on Wednesday and could be back in the lineup as early as Thursday night, according to Jeff Svoboda. Not a minute too soon as the Blue Jackets have lost four of their last five games.
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Montreal handed Winnipeg their sixth loss in their last seven games with a 3-2 shootout win. Jakub Dobes was stellar in net for the Habs, stopping 29 of 31 shots for his ninth win of the season. A nice bounce back game for him after that big loss in Colorado.
Juraj Slafkovsky (PP) and Oliver Kapanen were Montreal's goal scorers. Slafkovský totaled three shots, two blocks, and three hits in a very good multi-cat night. Over his last 82 regular season games, he has registered 25 goals, 27 assists, 159 shots, 68 blocks, and 185 hits. He is blossoming into an excellent multi-cat option.
Ivan Demidov had a balanced fantasy night with an assist, four shots, a block, two PIMs, and a hit. He is in a tie for first in rookie scoring with 20 points in 27 games.
Both Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor added a goal and an assist to their season totals, bringing them both inside the top-10 for points on the season with 34 and 32 respectively.
Eric Comrie took the loss in net for the Jets, allowing two goals on 31 shots and the only goal of the shootout.
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The Buffalo Sabres allowed two power play goals against in the same game for the first time this season as they lost 5-2 in Philadelphia. Both Travis Konecny and Trevor Zegras scored with the man advantage while the team got solo goals from Bobby Brink, Noah Cates, and Owen Tippett. Each of Cates, Brink, and Konecny had multi-point efforts with a goal and an assist, and Cates totaled five shots and four blocks as well. (More on Konecny a little later).
Travis Sanheim had a solid multi-cat night with a pair of power-play assists, two shots, two blocks, and two PIMs, while goalie Samuel Ersson held the Sabres to two goals on 29 shots for his fifth win this season.
Jason Zucker (PP) and Bowen Byram registered the goals for the Sabres as goalie Colten Ellis was in net for all five goals against on 35 shots faced.
Rasmus Dahlin was ejected for boarding Trevor Zegras late in the second period. Zegras remained in the game. We will see if the Department of Player Safety has anything further to say.
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Anaheim suffered their worst home loss in franchise history – which is saying something considering some of the bad Ducks teams over the last 30+ years – as Utah hung seven goals on them for a 7-0 win.
JJ Peterka had the big game for the Mammoth with two goals (one PP), two assists, and six shots. Peterka is now 1 of 13 forwards in the league with at least 3.0 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season. He has 73 points in his last 82 regular season games.
Clayton Keller posted a goal and two assists (one PP), Dylan Guenther managed a goal and an assist (PP), while Liam O'Brien and Lawson Crouse also scored.
Defenceman Ian Cole managed his first game with a goal and an assist in over three years (December 1st, 2022) in the win as goaltender Karel Vejmelka stopped all 27 shots he faced for his second shutout of the year. He is now 1 of 8 goalies with at least 11 wins, but the only one of that group with a save percentage under .900 (he sits at .891).
Anaheim goalie Ville Husso was pulled after allowing four goals on 21 shots.
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San Jose suffered a defeat nearly as bad as Anaheim's with a 7-1 loss at home to Washington. The Capitals got a huge game from rookie Ryan Leonard with two goals, two assists (one PP), six shots, and two hits. He is now two points back of Demidov and Beckett Sennecke for the rookie points lead.
Alex Ovechkin scored twice (one PP) and the Caps got solo goals from Sonny Milano and Dylan Strome. Brandon Duhaime posted a goal, an assist, two shots, a block, and two hits in a great multi-cat night.
Defenceman Matt Roy had a big night with three assists, two shots, and four blocks while goalie Charlie Lindgren stopped 23 of the 24 shots against in the victory.
Pavol Regenda broke Lindgren's shutout with a power-play goal with seven minutes left in the game as Sharks goalie Yaroslav Askarov was pulled late in the first period after allowing four goals on 12 shots.
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We have an interesting case with the Philadelphia Flyers as long-time Flyer Travis Konecny is adapting to a new coach in Rick Tocchet. While the team is in the thick of the playoff race, Konecny is not having anywhere near the fantasy season that mangers were hoping for – going into Wednesday night's game, he was on pace for 15 goals and 64 points in 2025-26 after averaging 39 goals and 39 assists every 82 games from 2022-2024 and posting 24 goals and 76 points in 2024-25. What has changed? Well, a lot, and here's some of it.
All data presented is at 5-on-5 with individual data from Evolving Hockey and tracking data from All Three Zones. Viz are from me, and the data is current as of the morning of Wednesday, December 3rd.
First, it's not hard to realize that he's abandoned being a primary shooter when he's on the ice. Among 369 forwards with at least 1500 minutes played from 2021-2024, Konecny was 34th by shot attempts per 60 minutes, in line with names like Jason Robertson and Adrian Kempe. That rate has dropped greatly each of the last two years.
Beyond that, it's the types of shots that have dropped. In both 2022-23 and 2023-24, he averaged 6.3 shots off the rush per 60 minutes. That fell in 2024-25 and has absolutely crashed so far in 2025-26. Overall, we can see the drop in shot attempts mirrored by the drop in shots off the rush:

The thing is that while he has also seen a decline in shots off the forecheck or cycle (that's what happens when your shot volume drops 42% in 18 months), that drop has rebounded slightly under new coach Rick Tocchet:

It isn't just the types of shots that have changed, either. Konecny has changed his passing profile as well because his rate of assists off the rush in 2025-26 (4.3) is nearly half what it was just two seasons ago (8.4), but his assists off the forecheck or cycle have jumped to a three-year high:

There is clearly a dramatic shift in Konecny's style of play over the last couple of years, moving away from a rush-focused offence and towards a cycle-focused offence, and that has been magnified under a new coach who doesn't get his teams to play off the rush very much. There is nothing wrong with this type of approach in and of itself – lots of players are productive as cycle-heavy options – but what makes Philadelphia different is their defencemen don't get involved in the cycle. In fact, the Flyers defencemen have the third-lowest rate of offensive contributions off the cycle/forecheck (shots and assists) in the league:

For posterity, those five teams have averaged 2.41 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season against a league average of 2.5 goals per 60 minutes. Four of those five teams are at 2.4 goals/60 or less with Dallas the one exception at 2.8.
Not only has Konecny's offensive playstyle changed, but his importance in the defensive zone has changed, too. This is a guy who, in 2024-25, had one of the highest rates of zone exits among all forwards in the league. He also failed to exit the zone or botched a defensive zone retrieval just 11.7% of the time, one of the 10 lowest rates in the league. Both of those things have completely changed under Tocchet:

The sample is about 100 tracked minutes, or seven games, so it's not a complete picture yet. But Konecny has the worst expected goal share relative to teammates of any Flyers forwards not on the fourth line and the goal differential results are being saved by a career-high PDO. With Konecny on the ice, the Flyers attack has ground to a halt, and once they stop shooting 13.1% with him on the ice – the highest of any Flyers forwards in the Analytics Era, or since 2007 – then Konecny's offence is going to suffer.
This is a case where we have a player who started making changes to his game under his old coach and has made even more under his new one. How much is adjusting to Tocchet's style, how much is Konecny genuinely wanting to change how he plays, and how much might just be age-related decline – he turns 29 years old in March – is for others to decide. The only clarity here is that Konecny is not anywhere close to the same player from just 20 months ago, and without other changes to either his game or the contributions of players around him, his offence is not likely to improve over the next four months.