Ramblings: Updates on Foerster and Chabot; Regression for Haula, Lindholm, Bratt, Batherson, and Guenther – December 18

Michael Clifford

2025-12-18

The Philadelphia Flyers announced that winger Tyson Foerster is out for the year after surgery on his arm. Technically, if the Flyers win a couple of playoff rounds, maybe he can return some in May, but that is about the best to be hoped for. A tough season for a player who has become an excellent two-way winger in Philadelphia.

*

Michael Kesselring was at Buffalo's practice on Wednesday and paired up with Owen Power, according to Bill Hoppe. It looks as if Kesselring may be ready to return following his month-long absence with a lower-body injury.

*

Bruce Garrioch reported that defenceman Thomas Chabot was a full participant in Ottawa's practice on Wednesday. Chabot hasn't played in nearly four weeks with an upper-body injury and won't return Thursday night, but it sure seems he'll be back before the holiday break.

*

Goals from Anton Lundell (PP), Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Bennett lifted the Florida Panthers from a 1-0 deficit to a 3-2 win over Los Angeles on Wednesday night. Brad Marchand assisted the Verhaeghe and Bennett goals, totaling three shots, a block, and a hit along the way. He is now up to 37 points in 32 games this season, and is on a three-game point streak with three goals and three assists in that span.

Daniil Tarasov got the start in goal for Florida and held the Kings to two goals on 29 shots for the win. His save percentage is now up to .906 as he's been the best option in goal for the Panthers through two and a half months.

Joel Armia (PP) and Kevin Fiala scored for Los Angeles. Alex Laferriere assisted the Armia PP goal, added five shots, and posted five hits in a very good multi-cat night.

Anton Forsberg was in net again and took the loss, giving up three goals on 28 shots.

Quinton Byfield was back in the lineup for the Kings. Evan Rodrigues took a puck to the face in the first period, returned for the second period, but did not play the final 15 minutes of the game. Something to keep an eye on.

*

Clayton Keller managed a goal and an assist while Dylan Guenther, Jack McBain, and Kevin Stenlund all scored in Utah's 4-1 win in Detroit. Defenceman Mikhail Sergachev posted an assist, four blocks, and a hit in the win as goalie Karel Vejmelka stopped 27 of 28 shots for his league-leading 15th win of the season.

Emmitt Finnie tallied the lone Red Wings marker and Cam Talbot gave up four foals on 28 shots in the loss for Detroit. He has now allowed at least three goals against in six of his last seven games, and at least four goals against in four of his last six.

*

📢 advertisement:

Joel Hofer stopped all 24 shots he faced as St. Louis shut out Winnipeg 1-0. That is Hofer's third shutout of the season, tying him for second in the league with a handful of other goalies, and that feels like a miracle considering how St. Louis goaltending has fared this year.

Justin Faulk scored the only goal, his eighth of the season, while totaling a block, two PIMs, and a hit.

Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck allowed just the one goal on 26 shots but took the loss.

*

Two goals from Sebastian Aho (one on the PP), and three goals in the third period overall, lifted the Carolina Hurricanes to a 4-1 win over Nashville. Aho also assisted on a Seth Jarvis goal, giving the centre a three-point night with four shots, a block, and two PIMs. Line mate Andrei Svechnikov managed a pair of assists (one PP0, three shots, and two hits in the win. After starting the season with zero points in eight games, Svechnikov has 20 points and 77 shots in his last 25 outings.

Jackson Blake managed a goal, a PP assist, and four shots in the win.

Pyotr Kochetkov was stellar in net, stopping 25 of the 26 pucks launched his way for his sixth win in his seventh start. He and Brandon Bussi have combined for 17 wins in 19 starts.

Filip Forsberg scored once on four shots with one hit in a decent multi-cat night. Nashville goalie Juuse Saros faced 36 shots and gave up three goals for the loss.

Jordan Martinook left the game in the second period and did not return.

*

Jack Eichel was out of the lineup for Vegas on Wednesday night, and New Jersey took full advantage with a 2-1 shootout win in Vegas. Connor Brown and Pavel Dorofeyev were the goal scorers while Devils goalie Jake Allen stopped 36 of 37 shots in regulation/overtime, and 3/3 shots in the shootout, for his 10th win on the year. Fun fact: over the last calendar year, Allen is 7th by save percentage in the league (minimum of 35 starts) and the only goalies higher are Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Darcy Kuemper, the two Colorado goalies, and Logan Thompson. Pretty good company!

Carter Hart was in net for Vegas and took the loss, allowing just one goal on 33 shots.

*

As things stand, we have passed the 40% mark of the regular season and for those in head-to-head leagues, we are probably halfway through the fantasy regular season. It is time to make decisions on players ranging from depth options to roster cornerstones, and today's Ramblings will attempt to do that. We are going to look at three areas ripe for regression:

  • Percentage change in On-Ice Shooting Percentage, or the change in a team's shooting percentage with a given player on the ice.
  • Percentage change in Secondary Assists Per Goal.
  • Percentage change in Individual Points Percentage, or how often a player registers a point when their team scores a goal with them on the ice.

We are including only forwards with at least 1500 minutes played across the 2023-2025 seasons and at least 300 minutes in 2025-26. Data is from Natural Stat Trick and current as of Wednesday, December 17th.

📢 advertisement:

Erik Haula (Nashville Predators)

With 17 points, 42 hits, and over 200 faceoff wins in 32 games, there may be some deep multi-cat fantasy mangers with Haula on their rosters. For a player who typically has minimal fantasy value, he has provided solid value thus far, but we are including him for a specific reason, and that reason is he has seen nearly an 8x increase in his secondary assists per goal with him on the ice:

To put Haula's 2025-26 secondary assist rate into perspective: He has 10 second assists in 32 games, double the total he had (5) in his prior 145 games, he has never had more than 15 secondary assists in a single season (back in 2017-18 with Vegas), and his 82-game pace for this season is for nearly 26, which  would have been a top-10 total in the league last season.

Call me skeptical that a 13-year veteran in his age-34 season who has never had more than 27 total assists in a single campaign will suddenly post 26 secondary assists playing for a bottom-10 offensive team in the league. Factor that with a huge increase in his IPP (check the legend) and Haula's production screams regression. It may be worth riding the hot streak until it's over, but this won't last much longer and any multi-cat manager relying on him for depth will want to start making alternative arrangements.

Elias Lindholm (Boston Bruins)

It is hard to get rid of the centre skating on the top line and top power-play unit with David Pastrnak, and as long as he has that role he's probably worth hanging onto. With that said, there are 254 forwards in our sample and Lindholm has the highest increase in on-ice shooting percentage of all 254 forwards, jumping (relatively speaking) by over 80% when compared to the two prior seasons:

A jump in OISH% isn't uncommon – the average change of our sample is the dotted red line and it's above zero – but this is a whole other world as Lindholm currently sits with a 19.1% OISH%, which is the third-highest rate in the league. His prior career-best mark was 14.1% back in 2021-22 – the highest mark in the league last year for any forward with at least 1000 minutes was under 16%.

If Boston shoots 15% with Lindholm on the ice the rest of the way – and that would likely be a top-10 mark in the league for a full season – then he probably posts around 34 points in the next 48 games, or 0.71 points per game, a steep drop from his current 0.88 points per game. If Boston shoots less than 15%, well… you know where this is going. Lindholm owners: Now is a good time to explore the trade market.

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils)

Determining Bratt's fantasy future this season is muddled because of the injury to Jack Hughes. If we knew Hughes were coming back just after Christmas, that would be one thing, but Hughes may be out up to another 3-4 weeks. If Hughes is back on time, Bratt may have fewer than half the season left with the superstar centre.

Once Hughes is back, there should be better days ahead because on the season, the Devils are shooting 10.2% with Bratt on the ice, a five-year low, and considerably below the 13.4% last year and 12.8% the year before:

If the team were shooting his two-year average by OISH%, Bratt would have around 37 points in 33 games, which would be a career-high 1.21 points per game. But they're not, so he has a 5-year-low 0.88 points per game. Even just a rate of 12% team shooting would have Bratt over a point-per-game pace. This downturn is clearly hampering his fantasy potential.

The good news is that this should improve as the season wears on, especially once Hughes returns in the next month (as he's expected to do). It is not guaranteed, of course, but for those fantasy managers at the top of their league looking to bolster their roster for January onward, circle Bratt's name.  

Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators)

There are nine names in our 254-forward sample whose on-ice shooting percentage and secondary assists per goal percentage have both increased by at least 30% when compared to the 2023-25 seasons, and one of them is Batherson:

Batherson has the 12th-largest increase in OISH% in our sample at a 43.7% rise, going from a two-year average of 10.7% across the prior two campaigns to 15.3% this season. To reiterate from what we saw in the Lindholm section: The league leader last year was under 16% and only a handful of forwards exceeded 15%. If Batherson were to stay at-or-near 15.3%, he'd have one of the top rates in the league.

The Drake is shooting 20.3% by himself, which is a big part of the jump, but even taking out his goals and shots, Batherson's line mates are shooting 13.8%. Last year, his line mates shot 10.5%. If he and his line mates don't stay hyper-efficient, Batherson has little chance of being a point-per-game player from here on out. Act accordingly.

Dylan Guenther (Utah Mammoth)

Like Bratt, it's hard to say what should be done with Guenther because his frequent line mate (Logan Cooley) is going to miss a lot of time (possibly until after the Olympic break). Guenther may only have 25 more games this season with Cooley as his centre, and with the Mammoth loading up the top line, there's not much talent left for Guenther to skate alongside.

With that preamble finished, there should be some positive regression heading Guenther's way:

At -83.2%, Guenther has seen the 10th-largest drop in secondary assists per goal scored with him on the ice. On the year, he has just one (1) secondary assist in 35 games after posting 15 in 70 games last year and 21 in his prior 115 games. At that rate, we'd expected him to have six secondary assists, not one. That is the difference between a 75-point pace and the 63-point pace he's currently on.

Again, it's hard to say to run out and trade for Guenther because Cooley may not be back until after the Olympics, which is over two months from now. As with Bratt, those at the top of their leagues will want to wait a couple weeks and then look to acquire Guenther for the stretch run – he is not a player to grab if you're on the fantasy playoff bubble.

Leave A Comment

Starting Goalies

Ball Arena | Loading local time...
Honda Center | Loading local time...

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MICHAEL BRANDSEGG-NYGARD DET
MASON MCTAVISH STL
ROMAN KANTSEROV CHI
FRASER MINTEN BOS
ADAM JIRICEK STL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DEVON LEVI EDM
DYLAN GARAND NYR
JACOB FOWLER MTL
JOSHUA RAVENSBERGEN S.J
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency L.A Players
26.2 ARTEMI PANARIN ADRIAN KEMPE QUINTON BYFIELD
18.2 TREVOR MOORE SCOTT LAUGHTON JOEL ARMIA
14.9 COREY PERRY ALEX LAFERRIERE ERIK HAULA

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK