Today on Frozen Tool Forensics we are looking back to draft day. A lot has happened since then and we are going to attempt to quantify a bit of that and highlight some big changes for players.

To do this we are going to take some Yahoo average draft positions and compare them to the current scoring race. It is an imperfect science as I am just going to use basic point production as the ranking methodology and compare it to Yahoo ADPs. Those ADPs certainly take more into account than goals and assists as many leagues count other categories and will take things like draft dynamics into account. We will see that ultimately the process still serves to highlight players whose fortunes have shifted over the course of the season so far.

The tables below will feature some basic player information (name, position, and team) as well as their scoring information (points, and their rank by point production) as well as their Yahoo ADP and the change from draft rank to current point rank. The stats are as of December 18th.

First up we are going to look at players who have seen their stock increase the most.

Trevor Zegras leads the list, and no surprise there. Zegras is pacing for his first point per game season after two straight 40-ish point pace seasons. By the underlying numbers he might be running a little hot, but clearly the change in scenery, and the increased deployment, is working out well for him and a career-high in point production seems likely.

Leo Carlsson is having a true breakout performance here. He is currently on a 99-point pace, skating over 20 minutes a night, and shooting 2.5 times per game. Those are all significant increases from his 2024-25 numbers. He is the highest ranked skater in our table above and has seen a huge jump in value this season. As with Zegras some of the numbers indicate he might not sustain a 100-point season the rest of the way, but still a 90-point pace rest of the way seems very reasonable.

Cutter Gauthier is our second Duck, and they are scattered through these lists as Anaheim (at least the top six) has outperformed many expectations. Gauthier, like Carlsson, has seen a big jump in ice time this year both at even strength and on the power play. That has coincided with a huge uptick in shots, almost hitting four per game. He has currently put up 18 goals and an 87-point pace and a lot of it looks sustainable. The top six and power-play units are sometimes shuffled, so for him to maintain this pace it will be important for him to get back on that top unit.

Same story, different team in San Jose. Macklin Celebrini is not on this list as he was drafted significantly higher than the rest of the list, but he is crushing it and taking other Sharks with him. Will Smith, who is unfortunately injured right now, has been skating with Celebrini at even strength and on the power-play, getting a career high ice time, and taking advantage of it with a 72-point pace. It all looks pretty good so if Smith can return and continue this deployment, keeping up a 70-point pace looks doable.

And finally, Nick Schmaltz. This one is a bit tricky. Schmaltz is always going to rank a little higher in pure scoring metrics than in well-rounded fantasy leagues because he usually puts up good assist numbers and unfortunately not a lot else. Schmaltz is also buoyed by the fact that he went on an absolute heater to start the season with 17 points in his first 11 games. He did follow that up with zero points in eight games at the end of November but has put up nine points in nine games since. Overall, it is a 71-point pace and looks pretty sustainable. 

On the flip side we have players who have dropped the most spots.

Brady Tkachuk's situation is pretty easy to diagnose: He has simply spent most of the season hurt. When in the lineup he has put up a 75-point pace, shooting four times per game, pretty consistent with previous years. If anything, he has a pretty low shooting percentage so that could tick back up and get him closer to a point per game pace.

There is a big caveat to this next group here, as it is a large group of defensemen and we won't get into everyone. The caveat is that d-men are always going to rank a bit lower when using a straight point pace rank because blue liners just score less. In drafts though they are going to have to be taken relatively highly if you want a top defenseman on the power-play. It is not a surprise then to see represented here (and a significant number ranked 3-10), but that is not to say there aren't some interesting situations.

Mackenzie Weegar was an absolute multi-cat stud in 2024-25 so it is not surprising he went high and therefore there always going to be a gap for him in this measure as we are only comparing point production. There was also a bit of a concern that he would get his job stolen like Mike Matheson did in 2024-25. Unfortunately, that has pretty much happened. Oddly though it has not been Zayne Parekh who usurped him as was the concern, but an incredible run from Rasmus Andersson. Without that top power-play, and along generally with some of Calgary's struggles to score goals, Weegar is currently on a 19-point pace – a far cry from his 50-point production the last two seasons. There are some signs of life with three points in his last four games, and the underlying numbers indicate he deserves quite a bit better, but his ceiling is going to certainly be limited without that top power-play role.

I would like to not read too much into Victor Hedman here as most of this drop is accounted for by the fact that he has missed time. Unfortunately, while he has been out, Darren Raddysh has been an absolute monster (more on him in a minute) on the top power play, and it isn't like Hedman hasn't lost that deployment before. In fact, even when Hedman returned from his first injury, Raddysh retained his spot there (though that could have just been a planned 'ease Hedman in' situation). Either way it is something to watch once Hedman is healthy enough to return to the lineup.

The final group is those players who were often not drafted but have risen the scoring ranks in the early going of 2024-25.

Troy Terry and Beckett Sennecke are slightly different and yet the same. Both are getting a big bump because they are successfully playing in the top six in a rejuvenated Anaheim, just like Carlsson and Gauthier. Sennecke is breaking into the league as a rookie so is a little bit more of a surprise and potentially a little more volatile, but as long as he maintains good deployment looks to be a solid point contributor going forward.

Tyler Bertuzzi is trying to break the 45-point player mold and turn himself once again into a 70-point threat. He was brought in to be a supporting cast to an up-and-coming center phenom, and so far has been clicking. Interestingly though it isn't with Connor Bedard. Most of his time has been on the second line with Frank Nazar. That being said, he is getting significant power-play time with Bedard and has 13 power-play points so far which is a huge boost. Unfortunately, Bedard being injured is going to hurt the entire team, Bertuzzi included. Add to that a potential regression in his shooting percentage and it wouldn't be surprising if Bertuzzi went through a reasonably significant dry spell in the coming weeks.

Darren Raddysh has been something of a revelation. He has had time on the top power-play in Tampa before but has never been quite this productive. After several healthy scratches to start the season, a Hedman injury thrust him onto the top unit, and he has never looked back. It is more than just the power play though. His overall time on ice has skyrocketed from 8-15 minutes in his first several games (with a dose of healthy scratches) to consistently seeing more than 24 minutes on Tampa's top pair. Add to that his 21 points in his last 16 games and it has been quite a run. This is all clearly unsustainable on its face, but the increased time on ice, shot rates, and power-play time certainly indicate he might be able to keep up some amount of point production in the short term. Long term it will depend on his usage when Hedman returns, but clearly for now enjoy the ride.

That is all for this week.

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