Ramblings: Reimer Signed; Updates on Sherwood and Smith; Shot Improvements for Rasmussen, Duclair, Tolvanen, and More – January 13

Michael Clifford

2026-01-13

For all fantasy managers looking for a playoff push, the information necessary to win a championship, or just to prepare a keeper roster for next season, be sure to check out the 2026 Dobber Hockey Midseason Guide! It has projections for the second half, rookies on the precipice of being called up, players on the block for the Trade Deadline, and a whole lot more. Help support what we do and get a leg up on the competition by heading to the Dobber Shop to order a copy of the 2026 Midseason Guide!

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The Ottawa Senators signed goalie James Reimer one-year contract, which would indicate that he's going to be around the team for a while. He is likely not the goalie he was five years ago, but it isn't as if we've never seen a goalie come out of nowhere to get on a second-half hot streak before. Ottawa is desperate for wins, and if he can out-perform Leevi Merilainen, then he will get the bulk of the starts. Goalie-needy fantasy teams need to at least consider him.

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The Vancouver Canucks provided an update on winger Kiefer Sherwood:

At the low end, it wouldn't be a big deal, but at the high end, Sherwood may not be ready to return until near the Olympic break.

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Will Smith was skating in a normal jersey practice jersey for San Jose on Monday. Max Miller reports that Smith is still considered day-to-day but he does seem on the verge of returning from the upper-body injury that has kept him out of the lineup for a month and counting.

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Jordan Eberle returned to the Seattle lineup on Monday night and scored a goal in the Kraken's 4-2 win over the New York Rangers. Berkly Catton, Eeli Tolvanen (more on him later), and Jared McCann also scored. McCann is now up to nine goals and 16 points in his 20 games on the season.

Seattle goaltender Philipp Grubauer stopped 19 of 21 shots for his ninth win in his 13th start.

Mika Zibanejad and Sam Carrick had the goals for the Rangers, with Zibanejad totaling four shots and a block. His point streak is now up to six games, totaling six goals and six assists in that span.

Jonathan Quick took the loss in net for the Rangers, allowing three goals on 29 shots.

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A.J. Greer scored twice as the Florida Panthers took a 4-3 road win in Buffalo on Monday night. He is up to nine goals in 45 games this season and has played well on the line with Sam Bennett in Brad Marchand's absence.

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Sam Reinhart (PP) and Anton Lundell had the other goals. Carter Verhaeghe had a trio of assists, including on Reinhart's PP goal, totaling three shots, a block, and a hit in a solid multi-cat night.

Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky gave up three goals on 23 shots but held on for the win.

Jacob Bryson, Alex Tuch, and Zach Benson scored for the Sabres. Benson is up to five goals and four assists in his last 14 games, which is a nice pace for him without huge minutes (though he did play over 18 last night).

Colten Ellis also gave up three goals, but took the loss, facing 31 shots in total.

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A couple of days after a 7-2 beatdown of the Philadelphia Flyers, the Tampa Bay Lightning did it once again with a 5-1 win. Both Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov managed a goal and an assist, with each of their assists coming on the man advantage. Kucherov finished with six shots in total and now has 35 points in his last 16 games with 49 shots on goal in that span. It is an absolutely preposterous hot streak.

Brandon Hagel also had a goal (PP) and an assist while Brayden Point and Pontus Holmberg tallied. After a very slow start to the season, Point has 8 goals, 11 assists, and 34 shots in his last 15 games.

Jonas Johansson wasn't busy but was solid for the Lightning stopping 19 of 20 shots faced.

Travis Konecny was back in the lineup for the Flyers and frequent line mate Christian Dvorak scored their only goal. Dan Vladar got the start in net for this one and gave up four goals on 25 shots.

Point left the game in the second period and did not return.

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With a goal, two assists, two blocks, and a hit, Juraj Slafkovsky led the way for the Montreal Canadiens in their 6-3 win over Vancouver. That makes 29 points over his last 26 games, totaling 11 goals, 18 assists, 45 shots, 27 blocks, and 32 hits in that span.

Alexandre Carrier scored twice for Montreal, totaling three shots, three blocks, and two PIMs in a great multi-cat night. Noah Dobson (PP), Mike Matheson, and Oliver Kapanen had the other goals. Alexandre Texier managed a pair of helpers as he now has eight points in his last four games.

Jakub Dobes stopped 20 of 23 shots for his 14th win on the season. He has 21 wins in 36 career starts.

Elias Pettersson, Evander Kane, and Max Sasson all scored for Vancouver. Nick Tolopilo faced 41 shots and allowed all six goals in the loss.

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Sergei Fedorov finally got his number retired by Detroit on Monday night, and though Carolina battled back from a 3-0 third-period deficit to tie the game 3-3, Andrew Copp earned Detroit's extra point with the overtime winner, giving the Red Wings a 4-3 victory. Alex DeBrincat assisted on that goal, added another on Albert Johansson's first of the season, while managing three shots and a block in the win. DeBrincat is now back over a point-per-game pace with 49 points in 47 games.

James van Riemsdyk tallied Detroit's other marker while John Gibson stopped 31 of 34 shots for his 12th win in 14 games since December 1st.

Jackson Blake (PP), Seth Jarvis, and Shayne Gostisbehere (PP) had the goals for the Hurricanes while netminder Frederik Andersen gave up four goals on 18 shots in the loss.

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A month ago, this column discussed player market share. The term 'market share' is what it sounds like: What percentage of a team's shot attempts/shots/expected goals with a given player on the ice are accumulated by that player? We do something similar with Individual Points Percentage to calculate which players are figuring in on their team's goals the most/least often. This is the same thing, but with shot attempts, shots, and expected goals.

One reason we do it is to find hidden gems. Among the top-25 forwards by market share of shot attempts up until American Thanksgiving were Ryan Leonard and Alex Laferriere. In 35 combined games since, they have 11 goals, 17 assists, and 87 shots. In 47 combined games before that, they had fewer goals (10) and assists (11). Market share often highlights top goal and/or point producers anyway, but it can indicate some players who could either be under-performing (Tage Thompson led shot attempt market share up to American Thanksgiving and his point-per-game rate has increased since) or could be very productive with a bigger role (like Leonard).

With that out of the way, let's look at market share among some forwards at all strengths. We are splitting the season in two, using American Thanksgiving as the mid-point. We are limiting the sample to forwards with at least 200 minutes in each 'half' – 272 forwards – and all data is from Evolving Hockey.

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)

A lot has been made about Matthews' season, whether he's healthy or not, and a potential decline. It should be noted that in the first half of our game sample, Matthews took 32% of the team's shot attempts, which was the sixth-highest rate in the league. In the second half of our game sample, Matthews leads the league:

In Matthews' 69-goal season two years ago, his season-long market share of shot attempts was a shade under 30%. So, not only was he above that during his slow start, but he's been far above that in the recent stretch that has seen him score 12 goals in his last 19  games. His 82-game pace this season is for 45 goals, exceeding his pace from last year. Whatever else is the problem, it's not because Matthews is afraid to shoot the puck, and with seven goals in seven games (heading into Monday night), he might be getting ready for one of his patented month-long heaters en route to the Olympics.

Michael Rasmussen (Detroit Red Wings)

Rasmussen is not one of the first Red Wings we think of when we think of production, but he's definitely a name to keep an eye on. In fact, in our two samples, Rasmussen has a top-15 percentage improvement in ice-time per game and a top-3 percentage improvement in shot attempt market share:

In 22 games since American Thanksgiving, Rasmussen has four goals, five assists, 18 blocks, and 24 hits. In a full season, that works out to roughly 15 goals, 19 assists, 67 blocks, and 90 hits. He has had 12 games this season where he's skated at least 14 minutes, and 11 of those 12 games have been since December 1st. We have seen him make his way to the top-6 in a game or two, and with the way Detroit has been shuffling their lines recently, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do it again. If he can maintain those kinds of minutes, he absolutely has value as a depth option in multi-cat formats.

Anthony Duclair (New York Islanders)

With injuries and poor play marring his first 14 months in an Islanders uniform, it would make sense if fantasy managers were wary of trusting Duclair. Well, below is a chart with all the forwards whose change in market share of both shot attempts and expected goals is at least one standard deviation above average (or roughly the top 16%). Duclair is among them, leading the way in expected goal improvement:

There hasn't been a big ice-time leap for Duclair yet, but it is notable that in 13 games between Halloween and American Thanksgiving, he skated under 13 minutes in each contest. Conversely, he has skated over 13 minutes in his three January games, and 11 times in his last 17 games. He had that huge five-point night last week, so he's been on fantasy radars, but there has clearly been some more trust from his coaches of late. That trust is built off him being much more involved offensively, so if he can keep this up and stay healthy, he can be a productive fantasy option again.

Eeli Tolvanen (Seattle Kraken)

Understandably, fantasy managers should be wary of trusting Kraken forwards to be reliable fantasy producers, and nearly regardless of Tolvanen's production, his volume of hits keeps him relevant in banger formats. However, he is 1 of 12 forwards to see a positive improvement by percentage change in TOI per game and market share of shot attempts when compared to the first half of our sample:

Tolvanen is currently mired in a six-game pointless drought (heading into Monday night) and the returns of Jared McCann and Jaden Schwartz over the last couple of weeks brings a lot of competition for ice time. Unless more key Kraken injuries hit, his days of averaging 19-20 minutes a game are over. With that said, there have been underlying improvements supporting his production uptick over the last 6-7 weeks, and maintaining that level of involvement offensively should make him a productive fantasy option, particularly in multi-cat formats.   

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